Poll Analysis: Riordan Endorsements Could Influence School Board Votes

     Despite naming education as the second most important problem facing Los Angeles today, (second only to crime and just above gangs), voters in Los Angeles seem to have little knowledge of the most important players in the local public school political scene. What they do know about the school board, many don't like according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll.But with the special election for school board less than a month away, nearly one in four voters say they would be at least somewhat influenced by Mayor Richard Riordan's endorsement of particular school board candidates. In a traditionally low turnout election such as this one, the mayor's influence has the potential to affect the outcome of a close race.

     Los Angeles School Board
     Four of the seven Los Angeles School Board members will be seated in an upcoming special election on April 13th. Despite expressed concern over education and a certain amount of recent publicity, the members of the Los Angeles School Board remain a mystery to nearly two in five Los Angeles residents, including a third of registered votes and nearly a quarter (23%) of voters who have school age children.
     More than a third (35%) of Los Angeles residents have a negative impression of the school board versus 27% who said their opinion was favorable. The board is even less popular among voters -- 43% said they have an unfavorable opinion of the board while 24% said favorable. Nearly half (48%) of voters with school age children view the board with a jaundiced eye, while 29% said they have a favorable opinion. This group was, not surprisingly, the most informed -- only 23% did not have an opinion.
     Another section of the city that doesn't approve much of the school board is the San Fernando Valley, where there is a movement afoot (separate from the movement to secede from Los Angeles as a city) to secede from the Los Angeles Unified School District. Nearly half (47%) of Valley residents said they have an unfavorable opinion of the Los Angeles school board and only 17% have a favorable opinion. Thirty-six percent of Valley residents said they didn't have enough information to say.

     Riordan Weighs In
     An outspoken opponent of both the San Fernando Valley city secession and the L.A. Unified School District break-up, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan has thrown the weight of his money and current popularity behind four candidates for school board in a move to influence the election on April 13th. The mayor's involvement is bound to raise name recognition for the candidates as expensive campaigns featuring television advertising which are usually out of the realm of practicality for those in quest of school board seats.
     The good news for Mayor Riordan and the candidates he supports is the poll finding that nearly one in four (24%) registered voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate the mayor had endorsed, but the bad news is over three out of five voters said that such an endorsement would have no effect on their vote and 11% said they'd be less likely to vote for a candidate the mayor endorsed. Similarly, seven in ten said they would disregard the mayor's opposition to a particular candidate when they go to the polls in April, while two in ten would be less likely to vote for a candidate the mayor opposed and 8% would be more likely to vote for such a candidate.
     In what is likely to be a very low turnout special election, however, the mayor's endorsement and the name recognition that will result from his television advertising campaign on a candidate's behalf might be enough to make a difference in a tight race.
     White voters were the most likely to be influenced by the mayor, with 29% saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate he endorsed. Six in ten white voters said that it would make no difference to their vote. Black voters were emphatically less likely to be influenced -- only 6% said they would follow the mayor's lead in the school board race while nearly three fourths (74%) said they would disregard his suggestions. Latino voters were in between, with 23% saying they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate, and 61% saying a mayoral endorsement would have no effect on their vote.
     Posing the opposite question, if Riordan were to come out against a school board candidate, 27% of white Angeleno voters said they would be less likely to vote for that candidate, while 12% and 13% of black and Latino voters respectively said the same thing.

     School Superintendent
     Those residents who have heard of School Superintendent Reuben Zacarias have a more favorable (27%) than unfavorable (19%) impression of him. Zacarias, however, maintains a fairly low profile in Los Angeles. Fifty-four percent of all residents, including half of all voters have not heard enough about the superintendent to have an opinion. Parents of school age children are slightly more aware of Zacarias, although nearly half (48%) had not formed an impression of him. These parents also had a somewhat more favorable opinion, 35% to 17% unfavorable.
     Zacarias is somewhat more popular among Latino residents of the city, with 37% saying they have a favorable impression of him. Only 15% of this group have an unfavorable opinion of him, but even Latinos are largely unaware of him -- nearly half (48%) don't know enough about him to have an opinion. Zacarias is least popular among white city residents, 58% of whom have no opinion at all of him. One in four white residents said they have an unfavorable opinion of the school superintendent and only 18% rate him favorably. Black residents are in between, with 28% favorable, 19% unfavorable, and 53% unsure.

     Local Public Schools
     Opinion of local public schools varies depending on whether one has children in those schools or not, as well as by race. Parents of school age children generally have a better perception of their local public schools than do their childless neighbors, although over half of these parents gave their local schools one of the two lowest ratings.
     Sixteen percent of parents rate their local school as excellent and another 27% said they were good. Twenty-four percent rated their local public schools as fair while 30% rated them as poor. Among residents with no school age children, only 18% rated schools as excellent or good but the large majority (68%) said fair or poor.
     Two in five (41%) Latinos gave their local schools one of the two highest ratings, although a majority (56%) said fair or poor. Whites and blacks were less satisfied. Among blacks, 22% rated their schools highly while 69% rated them fair or poor. Only 17% of white respondents rated their local schools excellent or good and 67% said they were fair or poor.
     Of those who rated their local schools "excellent" or "good", 34% of all respondents gave credit for the positive condition of the school to the teachers. Administrators and parents were the next highest mention at 14% each, followed by recently elected Governor Gray Davis at 12%.
     A plurality of those who rated their schools as "fair" or "poor" laid the blame at the feet of former Governor Wilson (15%) or the California state government (15%) in general. Seventeen percent said school administrators were at fault. Parents came in for their share of the blame with 14% of respondents pointing the finger at them, and another 14% said everyone involved is to blame.
     Latinos in particular point out Wilson and the state government as the guilty parties, 40% of that group blamed the former governor (19%) or the state (21%). A quarter of whites (25%) and blacks (26%) agreed with that assessment.
     Crime, the curriculum, and incompetent or overworked teachers were cited by a quarter of Los Angelenos when asked what they felt was the most important problem facing their local public schools today. (Respondents were allowed up to two answers to this question.) Problems with school administration were cited by 16% of respondents and problems involving students by 13%. Infrastructure problems were mentioned by 10%.
     When asked if immigrant children have had a positive or negative impact on public schools in California, respondents' answers varied according to their background. Forty-four percent of white respondents said immigrant children have had a negative impact on schools versus 23% who said it has been positive and 11% who feel there has been no impact. A nearly equal number (42%) of Latino respondents said the opposite -- that the impact has been positive while 26% said negative, and 21% said there has been no impact. Blacks are somewhat more divided, with 30% saying the impact has been positive, 36% negative, and 16% no impact.
     Los Angeles residents don't agree with activists' claims that the racial and ethnic makeup of public school teaching and administrative staff should echo that of their student body, according to the poll. Only 16% of all Angelenos said that hiring mostly teachers and administrators of the same racial or ethnic group as that of the students should be any sort of priority for a school district. Eight out of ten said it should not be a priority at all. This agreement spanned racial and ethnic groups, as well, with more than three out of four blacks and Latinos agreeing that it should not be made a priority. One out of five of each of those groups did think it should be made a very or fairly high priority.
     More than four out of five members of all racial and ethnic groups said they agreed with the statement "Students can learn just as well with teachers and administrators whose race or ethnicity is not the same as theirs."
     Overall, a majority (51%) of Los Angeles residents said they approved of ending bilingual education in public schools, although a majority of Latinos (56%) said they did not approve. Blacks were more divided, 48% approved and 41% said they disapproved. A 63% majority of whites approved while 30% disapprove.
     Pluralities of all races agreed that more needs to be done in the process of removing bilingual education from public schools. Only 7% of all respondents said they felt that appropriate steps have been taken in this effort. Thirty-eight percent of Latinos, however, felt that public schools should be doing less versus 17% of black residents and 19% of whites who felt the same way.
     A majority (57%) of white respondents felt that the passage of Proposition 227 last fall was a good thing for students, while 25% said it was a bad thing, and 7% said it has had no effect on students. Black Angelenos were split -- 37% good, 35% bad and 17% said no effect. Forty-one percent of Latinos, however, said it was a bad thing as opposed to 33% who said it was good for students. Fifteen percent of Latinos said it had no effect on students at all.

     Break Up Of L.A. Unified
     Dissatisfaction with the Los Angeles Unified School district is strong enough that a majority (52%) of residents say they would favor a plan to break it up into smaller independent school districts. This number is similar to the support found for a school district break up in a Times poll three years ago. Majorities of whites (62%) as well as residents living on the Westside (52%) and in the San Fernando Valley (61%) support the idea. A 46% plurality of Latinos favor the break-up versus 36% who oppose it, but blacks are split on the issue 38% favor to 40% oppose.


     How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,221 citywide residents in Los Angeles, including 854 registered voters, by telephone March 20 through 27. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Surveys were conducted in English and Spanish. Asians were interviewed as part of the overall sample, but there were not enough to break out as a separate subgroup.