THE TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Electorate Still Can’t Decide on El Toro Airport

Orange County voters are split evenly on the controversial and closely watched Measure A, which would require a commercial airport at El Toro, with a fifth of the electorate undecided as Election Day nears, a new poll shows.

The Times Orange County Poll also found unusually low voter recognition for the measure, despite almost two years of debate on the issue. Four in 10 reported that they had not heard of the initiative. Even among likely voters, one-third had not heard of Measure A.

The poll, a telephone survey of 600 registered voters, shows that neither side has mustered a majority, and the election may hinge on the 21% who say they are undecided. Supporters and opponents are almost dead even, with 39% favoring the measure and 40% opposed.

“Proponents still have to persuade people that an airport is the best possible solution. They haven’t succeeded in making this argument to the voters,” said Mark Baldassare, who conducted The Times Orange County Poll. Measure A proponents have failed so far to get their message across, he said, though they have a consistent core of support for their airport plan.

The new poll shows a big increase in the undecided vote since a similar poll was taken in May, before the measure had qualified for the ballot, but no increase in airport support.

Proponents hope to turn that around this week with a $440,000 cash infusion from George L. Argyros, a developer and architect of Measure A. Argyros made the contributions in the last two weeks to the Yes on Measure A Committee, which is expected to use the money to mail campaign literature.

Supporters of the initiative say it will create 21,000 new jobs and generate millions for the local economy. Opponents say an airport at El Toro would harm the quality of life in South County and the same economic benefits can be reaped by finding an alternative use for the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station when the 4,700-acre base closes in 1999.

In interviews, some poll respondents said they are wary of the initiative because it is sponsored by developers with ties to Orange County’s political establishment.

“I’ve opposed it from the beginning because it’s the brainchild of a group of millionaire developers who put it together to promote their own interests. I don’t buy the argument that an airport would lead to thousands of jobs. The only ones who gain anything from this would be the developers. There’s nothing in this for the public,” said Miriam Sheddon of Fullerton.

In the recent poll, support among likely voters was only slightly better than the electorate at large, with 41% saying they would vote yes on the measure and 38% opposing it. The undecided vote remained at 21%.

Traditionally, ballot measures have difficulty succeeding when there is a large undecided group or when voters do not hold strong views in favor of it. It is easier for the public to simply vote no when it remains unpersuaded about an issue, Baldassare said.

Overall, the survey showed that support for the airport initiative is lagging and remarkably few people have strongly held positive views on the measure.

Several poll respondents said in follow-up interviews that they had received little or no information about the measure.

“I don’t have a strong inclination one way or the other. I guess you could say I’m one of the undecided,” said Beverly Brenna of Anaheim. “If I lived closer (to El Toro), I think I would probably have a position. But right now I’m more interested in the governor’s race and in the state propositions.”

As the campaign enters its final week, Measure A continues to polarize the county along geographic lines, with voters in the North and Central County supporting it by 43% to 34% and South County voters rejecting it by more than a 2-to-1 ratio.

There are supporters in South County, however, who are being won over by the message that the airport will bring economic improvement.

Laguna Niguel resident Albert Minoofar said he has supported Measure A from the beginning.

“I know a lot of people are against it, but we can’t close the door to jobs. I think an airport will create the jobs needed to expand Orange County’s economy and bring prosperity to everyone. There’s no doubt that an airport attracts businesses, but I don’t think that the people who put this (Measure A) together have done a good job of educating the public. I’m amazed that I haven’t seen all that much about the initiative except what I’ve read in the paper,” Minoofar said.

To some degree, the two-year debate about putting a civilian airport at the base has had an impact. When given a choice of options, voters most often pick an airport as the best future use for the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station: 31% said they favored an airport, 15% opted for an industrial center, 13% chose residential housing, 12% preferred a transit center and 6% a jail or prison.

Nevertheless, the overall soft support for the measure is apparent even among voters who favor Measure A. More than one-third who will vote yes on the initiative said they favor something other than an airport. In addition, half of the undecided voters also prefer using the base for something other than an airport.

In addition, only 44% of all voters in the county think that putting a commercial airport at El Toro is the most fiscally sound use of the base. An almost equal number, 37%, disagree. Of the 44% who agreed an airport is the best choice, only 24% strongly agree it is the most fiscally sound use, while 20% somewhat agree.

But the measure’s soft support is also apparent among likely voters. Not even a majority of likely voters--45%--agree that a commercial airport at El Toro is the most fiscally sound use of the Marine base, while 37% strongly disagree.

When it comes to buying the strongest argument of the proponents, only 28% strongly agree that an airport would create jobs and improve the Orange County economy, down from 34% in May.

The Times Orange County Poll

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted Oct. 22-25 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. Once a household was reached, we asked to speak with a registered voter. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter in Orange County were interviewed. The margin of error would be larger for subgroups, such as likely voters (plus or minus 5%).

Note: Results might not add up to 100% because of rounding.

El Toro Conversion Splits Voters

Measure A, which would stipulate that El Toro Marine Corps Air Station become a commercial airport upon the Marines’ departure, divides county voters, with about four in 10 on each side of the issue. The cutting characteristic is geography, with those in South County lining up heavily against the proposal and northerners voting in favor.

Measure A on the Orange County ballot would designate the Marine Corps Air Station at El Toro for civil aviation and related purposes. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure A?

North South Total county county Yes 39% 43% 27% No 40% 34% 56% Don’t know 21% 23% 17%

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At this time, which of these proposed future uses of the El Toro Marine base do you most prefer?

North South Total county county Airport 31% 34% 23% Commercial 15% 12% 24% Residential 13% 12% 14% Transit center 12% 10% 17% Jail/prison 6% 7% 4% Something else 13% 14% 12% Don’t know 10% 11% 6%

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Behind the Votes

While most residents agree Measure A would create jobs and spur the local economy, there is less accord over whether a commercial airport would be the best use of taxpayer money. And, a big majority agrees that any such airport would create excessive noise in the neighboring communities.

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements:

A commercial airport at El Toro will create jobs and improve the Orange County economy.”

North South Total county county Agree 68% 71% 54% Disagree 25% 21% 41% Don’t know 7% 8% 5%

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A commercial airport at El Toro is the most fiscally sound use of the Marine air base, that is, it will cost Orange County taxpayers less to develop and will generate more tax revenues than any other possible future uses.

North South Total county county Agree 44% 48% 32% Disagree 37% 31% 53% Don’t know 19% 21% 15%

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A commercial airport at El Toro will create excessive noise for residents living in the surrounding communities.

North South Total county county Agree 70% 67% 78% Disagree 25% 27% 18% Don’t know 5% 6% 4%

Source: Times Orange County Poll