Santa Bill Is Coming to Town

CARPINTERIA —  Bill Clinton’s victory has sparked much groundless speculation about what the Man from Arkansas will mean for California. What fun. Groundless speculation about the Golden State is what I do best, so let me get to it. We’ll start with the Summerland affair.

It was reported last week that Clinton’s Hollywood friends had obtained a beach house south of Santa Barbara and that the First Family-elect planned to visit often, perhaps this very Thanksgiving. Summerland, a funky enclave not far from the gated manse in question, went into a civic swoon. Grill cooks studied their razorback recipes. Landing sites were pondered, welcome messages composed. A saxophone was placed on the ready in the town tavern.

The reaction was a bit excessive. For starters, there is no evidence the Clintons will make a habit of retreating to their friends’ home--and anyway, the house is not even located in Summerland. It sits at the northern end of Padaro Lane, a leafy boulevard of vacation homes that runs through unincorporated coastal land and is separated from Summerland by a freeway. People on Padaro Lane, where homes cost as much as $10 million, consider it a distinct geographic entity, and they tend to mingle socially with the swells of nearby Montecito.

“Summerland,” a Padaro Lane resident explained, straining not to sound too snobbish, “is a different, uh, thing, altogether.”

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As with Summerland, all of California could stand to lower expectations about Clinton. There’s cause for hope--but also caution. For starters, Clinton owes the state nothing. Bush gave him a free ride to our electoral votes. He barely campaigned here, and made few promises. Still, Clinton would like another free pass through California next time, and the best guarantee of that is to deliver goods.

The economy, of course, is where to start. Economies generally run Presidents, and not the reverse. Nonetheless, Stephen Levy, a veteran California economist, said that if Clinton sticks to the short-term agenda promised in the campaign--an aggressive program of tax incentives and investments in infrastructure, technology and training--California could be jolted rather quickly back to economic life. “The questions,” Levy said, “are all ‘whether.’ Whether this was just campaign talk. Whether you can do it.”

Clinton euphoria seems most excessive in L.A.’s City Hall, where some officials have been heard babbling that the new President will make our riot-torn city his urban centerpiece. Seems to me the Different Kind of Democrat geared his campaign more to Simi Valley than South Los Angeles. Also, cities that resurrected themselves in the past pretty much performed their own miracles. If Clinton’s main concern were rebuilding L.A., he would have run for mayor.

Among the special interest tribes, California environmentalists appear to be the most enthusiastic, and who can blame them? Twelve years of the seen-one-redwood- gang was enough. Still, Clinton’s environmental record in Arkansas is messy, and the hope here seems tied to the tenuous assumption that Al (The Ozone Man) Gore will transcend the traditional role of official funeral-goer and actually have some influence.

As a Pasadena mortgage slave, I wonder how Clinton will define middle class for tax purposes. This is something he cagily refused to do during the campaign. His promise not to raise middle-class taxes will become meaningless for many Californians if Clinton sets the numbers according to his Arkansas experience. What passes for a middle-class income in Little Rock approaches the poverty level by L.A. prices.

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That Clinton already has pulled Californians into his inner circle is a positive sign, and there are plenty more Californians waiting to bend his ear: For the first time in a long time, our Washington delegation appears ready to work together to fight for federal pork. All of which should help Clinton remember the State That Bush Forgot.

Indeed, the significance of the Padaro Lane house--if the Clintons come calling with any frequency--is that it will allow him to know us better. “There’s a lot he could learn out here in California,” said Roger Zeller, who owns shops in Santa Claus Lane here. Santa Claus Lane is a familiar roadside attraction along U.S. 101, and it’s a good place to wind up this assessment of California and its expectations for Clinton.

Santa Claus Lane, where a St. Nick soon will be on hand each day to collect wish lists, is located at the southern end of Padaro. The house sits at the other end, about a mile north. Remember, Santa Claus at one end, the President at the other--one grants a child’s every wish, the other just runs the government. Keep that straight, and California should not be disappointed.