Tuesday Night’s Second Biggest Possible Loser Is Not on the Ballot : California: Wilson has tied his political future to candidates and initiative that may end up making his ability to govern that much tougher.

Winning isn’t everything, seasoned politicians will tell you, but losing isn’t anything. Pete Wilson is about to learn that can be true even if your name’s not on the ballot.

Much has been written about the governor’s high political stakes in this election. Less attention has been devoted to the impact of Tuesday’s vote on his ability to govern.

Politically, Wilson’s prime goal has been to win control of the state Assembly. His ability to solve California’s problems, Wilson tirelessly contends, depends on getting rid of his nemesis, Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, and other Democratic legislators who thwart him at every political turn.

The problem is, Republican candidates in California are feeling the drag of an unpopular incumbent, President George Bush, at the top of the ticket, and the fallout from a state party in disarray. Even GOP leaders appear to have abandoned hope that the Republicans can win a legislative majority. It will likely be Wilson who will bear the most blame for their broken ambitions.

The governor’s reputation is also on the line in the race for California’s two-year U.S. Senate term. A victory by Wilson’s hand-picked successor, John Seymour, would help Wilson rehabilitate his own image, as a politician and a government leader. But with polls showing Democrat Dianne Feinstein far ahead of Seymour, that, too, seems improbable.

The fact that conservative Republican Bruce Herschensohn has come on strong against Democrat Barbara Boxer in their race for the six-year U.S. Senate seat reflects on Wilson’s stature as well. Herschensohn is not the kind of Republican with whom Wilson is comfortable. And Herschensohn’s strength--win or lose--will do little to move the GOP toward the center, where Wilson needs it to go to achieve his goals.

Then there is Proposition 165. The initiative, proposed by Wilson, would give him much more control over the state’s budget process and reduce welfare benefits. What Wilson hoped to position as a referendum on “the dole” has become, instead, yet another referendum on Wilson: The measure’s “budget reform” provisions amount to a “power grab.”

Opponents of Proposition 165 are betting a bundle this strategy works. That has upped the ante for Wilson, who cannot relish losing the debate that is the opening skirmish of his 1994 reelection campaign.

There is already speculation that, if Wilson loses these mid-term votes of confidence, he is political dead meat. His chances for reelection diminished, he’ll no longer be a factor in national GOP politics, his dream of running for the ’96 presidential nomination in shreds.

Well, maybe. Remember 1962, when, after he lost a race for California governor, we didn’t have Richard M. Nixon to kick around anymore? Two years is an eternity in politics.

But all the political speculation ignores the more important question: What about governing? This election’s impact on Wilson’s ability to get that done may depend partly on the fate of 165.

Put aside the initiative’s welfare reforms and concentrate on its provisions dealing directly with governing authority. The budget proposals would dramatically shift the constitutional balance of powers, granting Wilson and future governors unprecedented authority to declare a “fiscal emergency” and institute spending cuts if California’s budget is unsigned by July 1, if revenues fall short or if spending increases by 3% or more during the fiscal year.

Such a restructuring could prevent budget crises like this year’s 63-day travesty, but it would also mean less democratic decision-making. As dysfunctional as the Legislature is now, are Californians ready to sacrifice the role of their individual representatives in arranging budget priorities?

One controversial provision of 165 appears to eliminate the right of the Legislature to override a governor’s veto of budget bills. Not to worry, say the measures proponents. It’s a “small, minute, technical error.” The courts will correct it.

Are they sure? When? If the measure winds up in court, we might not know who’s in charge of the budget for years. How does California deal with the inevitable budget crises ahead?

Wilson’s Assembly fights are another delicate matter. Whether he wins or loses, he is making impressive enemies.

What will happen if Republicans don’t gain control of the Assembly? That’s easy:: Armageddon. After the bruising Wilson has given Assembly Democrats, will he be able to get a Mother’s Day resolution through that house, let alone major legislation?

If the GOP were to prevail Tuesday, a fractious Republican majority would likely close ranks to deny Brown the speakership. But organizing the house is one thing; defining the legislative agenda is quite another. There’s no guarantee GOP right-wingers would fall into line behind Wilson, even if the Republicans control the Assembly.

Wilson endorsed several conservative GOP Assembly candidates, some after they dispatched Wilson’s moderate choices in the primaries. He’s raised money and campaigned with them this fall. But does Wilson really think these people can be bought--or stay bought?

Last year, he gave the Religious Right a veto of AB 101, gay-rights legislation he had indicated he might sign. This year, he backed off intraparty fights over abortion rights at the national and state GOP conventions. Nevertheless, conservatives have declared no truce.

The bottom line is, conservative Republican legislators are likely to cut deals with Wilson on some fiscal issues, if taxes aren’t part of the equation and spending cuts in social programs take precedent. That could flatten Wilson’s vaunted preventive-government agenda, which was to have been the centerpiece of his first-term record.

The political decisions that Wilson has made will affect his ability to govern California long after the election results are tallied. Now it’s California’s turn. The decisions voters make Tuesday will determine the fate of Wilson’s best-laid plans.