AUTO INDUSTRY : Car and Truck Sales Rise 4.2% During August : Outlook: Analysts warn that flagging consumer confidence may spell trouble later.

Sales of North American-made cars and light trucks climbed 4.2% in August, according to figures released Thursday, but analysts said weakening consumer confidence could spell trouble for an industry that had hoped for a steady recovery.

Auto sales, which fell dramatically in July, picked up slightly for all of August, but the strong sales growth in May and June that had fueled hopes of a sustained industry recovery has evaporated.

“Incomes are roughly flat, employment is roughly flat, housing starts are sort of moving sideways, and the sales in the car market are following the same pattern,” said Susan Jacobs, an auto industry consultant in Little Falls, N.J. “The big risk right now is that falling confidence will induce consumers to stay out of the market to an even greater degree.”

GM’s sales of cars and trucks rose 2.5% in August compared to the same month in 1991. Ford’s sales were up 17.6%, while Chrysler’s rose 16%.

For many car dealers, the difficulty of selling cars to customers reluctant to spend money was compounded last month by low inventories as remaining 1992 models were sold before orders for 1993 vehicles could be filled.

Frank Flury, general manager at Crossroads Chevrolet in North Hollywood, said the dealership ran out of Chevrolet Suburbans, one of its best-selling vehicles. “We didn’t have a good month, let’s put it that way,” he said.

Some analysts say there will likely be a sales spurt this month as dealers whose inventories are not too depleted offer discounts on their 1992 models. But General Motors Corp. dealers are worried that a prolonged United Auto Workers strike will strand them with empty showrooms as the company is forced to suspend production at more assembly plants.

GM Saturn dealers have been the hardest hit. They had only a six-day supply of cars on hand when the strike at a GM parts plant halted production at the company’s Smyrna, Tenn., plant last week. At Saturn of Monrovia, sales people are calling customers on a waiting list to warn them that their wait may be longer than expected--how long, they don’t know.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the pace of vehicle sales in August came to 12.8 million units, a slight improvement over the July pace of 12.6 million. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is a reflection of the number of vehicles that would be sold if August’s sales pace continued for a full year.

Analysts and auto executives, who several months ago were predicting industry sales of up to 14.5 million vehicles this year, have scaled back their estimates as the nation’s economic recovery seemed to stall out.

George E. Borst, vice president for strategic planning at Toyota’s U.S. sales arm, now forecasts U.S. sales of 13 million vehicles in 1992, down from an earlier estimate of 14 million.

“The proverbial pent-up demand will be served only when consumer confidence starts the long climb back up to 1989 levels,” Borst said earlier this week.

Sales of imported and domestic vehicles in all of August rose 4.2% compared to August, 1991. Trucks sales were much brisker than car sales, gaining 17.8% last month compared to the year-earlier period, while car sales declined 18.9%.

For the period Aug. 21-31 only, GM, Ford and Chrysler reported a vehicle sales increase of 8.3% Truck sales rose 21.7% while car sales were up 0.4%.

Auto Sales

Seasonally adjusted annual rates for all vehicles sold in the United States. Domestic figures include cars and trucks built in the United States by Japanese auto makers. The figures use seasonal patterns to predict the auto industry’s sales rate over a full year.

In millions of vehicles 1991:

AUG.: 12.6

SEP.: 13.3

OCT.: 12.0

NOV.: 12.5

DEC.: 13.2 1992

JAN.: 11.8

FEB.: 12.5

MAR.: 12.5

APR.: 12.6

MAY: 12.9

JUNE: 13.6

JULY: 12.6

AUG.: 12.8

Source: Commerce Department