Bush Rolls Up a Strong Lead : May Capture 53% of Vote Despite Surge by Dukakis

Republican nominee George Bush built a substantial lead in Electoral College votes over Democrat Michael S. Dukakis in early returns from Tuesday’s presidential election, despite a late surge of support for the Massachusetts governor among previously undecided voters and wayward Democrats.

The early returns, along with exit poll data, suggested the vice president could end up winning about 53% of the popular vote nationwide, building on a strong base of support in the South, Midwest and Rocky Mountain West.

By about 6:15 p.m. PST, an hour and 45 minutes before the California polls closed, both CBS and ABC projected Bush as the winner, declaring that his victory in Missouri assured the vice president of at least the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Bush, 64, would become the first sitting vice president to be elected to the Oval Office since Martin Van Buren in 1836. And his election to succeed President Reagan would mean that, for the first time since the Democratic era of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman 40 years ago, the same party would control the White House for more than two consecutive terms.

Divided Government

At the same time, returns from House and Senate races across the country indicated that Democrats will maintain their domination of Congress, continuing a pattern of divided government that has generally paralleled the GOP domination of the White House.

Democrats were expected to retain their 277-155 margin over Republicans in the House before Tuesday’s voting. With 408 incumbents heavily favored for reelection, most of the close contests were fought over 27 open seats--including three vacancies--scattered across the country from California to the Carolinas.

In early Senate results, former Virginia Gov. Charles S. Robb, a Democrat, coasted to an easy victory to replace retiring Sen. Paul S. Trible Jr., a Republican. And in Connecticut, Democratic Atty. Gen. Joseph I. Lieberman upset incumbent Republican Lowell P. Weicker Jr. But in Mississippi, Republican Rep. Trent Lott won the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. John C. Stennis, who also is retiring.

Bentsen Reelected

Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, retained his Senate seat thanks to a Texas law that allowed him to seek reelection there even as he ran on the national ticket.

Republicans had little hope of taking control of the Senate, as they did when Ronald Reagan swept into the White House in 1980. In fact, the Democrats, who regained control of the Senate two years ago, hoped to build on their 54-46 margin.

In Indiana, Secretary of State Evan Bayh built a mounting lead in the race to become the state’s first Democratic governor in 20 years. The victory would be especially sweet for the Democrat because he is the son of former Sen. Birch Bayh, who was defeated for reelection in 1980 by Dan Quayle.

In terms of the presidential balloting, the fact that voters feel fairly satisfied with the way things are going in the country--as confirmed by Los Angeles Times/Cable News Network exit polls--worked heavily in Bush’s favor. Most voters interviewed in that survey said they wanted to stay the course charted by the Reagan Administration in domestic and foreign policy.

The vice president, who had patiently plotted his run for the presidency ever since losing the GOP presidential nomination to Reagan in 1980, promised voters he would continue those policies.

And Reagan himself, one of the most popular presidents of modern times with an extraordinary 60% approval rating as his second term draws to a close, pulled out all stops in campagining for the election of his vice president.

Not Significant Factor

Quayle, Bush’s controversial vice presidential running mate, apparently was not a significant factor in Tuesday’s vote, according to ABC exit polls.

The selection of Quayle, which had stunned and even dismayed some of Bush’s aides, was raised repeatedly by Dukakis in speeches and in television commercials during the campaign. And Bush strategists were so concerned that Quayle would be a drag on the ticket that they limited his campaign schedule to smaller cities and towns outside the national limelight.

Los Angeles Times/CNN exit polls indicated a surge of Dukakis support over the weekend, especially among Democrats who had voted for Reagan and for voters who made up their minds in the last few days. And Dukakis, attempting to squeeze the last drop of help from that trend, used satellite links to beam last-minute television appeals into states where the polls were still open Tuesday night.

But in the end the shift appeared to be falling short for Dukakis as Bush drew heavy support among men, non-union voters and white voters--especially Southern whites and “born-again” Christian whites, according to the surveys of voters as they left polling places. Early poll figures even showed Bush winning about one-eighth of the black vote, which is more support than Reagan won among blacks.

Better Than Mondale

The Times survey of voters indicated that Dukakis--for all his problems during the campaign--did as well or better than Walter F. Mondale did four years ago when it came to holding the core of the nation’s Democrats, but in today’s political arithmetic that alone is not enough to carry the White House. And among the independents who hold the balance of power, Bush outscored his Democratic rival.

Bush surged into the lead by bouncing back from a 17-point deficit in the polls in mid-July with an aggressive, hard-hitting campaign that portrayed himself as the new leader of the Reagan revolution and Dukakis as a free-spending liberal who opposed such traditonal values as the Pledge of Allegiance and favored such soft-on-crime measures as prison furloughs for convicted murderers.

The effectiveness of the Republican tactics were enhanced by the fact that Dukakis let valuable time slip away after his own nomination in July, was slow to meet the Bush attacks and failed until the final weeks of the campaign to develop a compelling message of his own.

Negative Perceptions

Beginning with the Republican convention in August, the Bush campaign launched a well-coordinated attack to drive up voters’ negative perceptions of Dukakis, who polls showed was fairly well liked but not very well known by the voters. That the Bush strategy succeeded to an extraordinary degree is indicated by exit polls Tuesday which showed Dukakis with an extraordinairly high unfavorable rating of 46% compared to 47% favorble.

The same polls showed Bush with a relatively high unfavorable rating of 39% himself, compared to a favorable rating of 55%. Voting experts indicated fewer than 100 million voters, or a little more than half the voting-age public, were turning out to vote Tuesday. They blamed the low turnout on the bitter nature of the campaign, which included harsh attacks by Bush and counterattacks by Dukakis, as well as on a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate.

Moreover, the country is enjoying peace and relative prosperity and there were no overriding issues of the kind that can stimulate a high voter turnout.

Both Exhausted

Both candidates were exhausted as they campagned right up until Election Day. Bush, returning to his official residence at a Houston hotel, said he was nervous but felt good about the election and Dukakis declared he felt “terrific” but was glad to be back in Boston.

ABC exit polls showed Bush scored heavily among the following groups: Veterans, people with children, people earning more than $40,000, those with college degrees or some college, Protestants, residents of farm areas and small towns, and voters who were self-employed or earned salaries instead of working for hourly wages.

Of those who voted for Dukakis, almost 60% said they were voting against Bush. Although the vice president highlighted environmental issues and repeatedly accused Dukakis of failing to clean up the pollution of Boston Harbor, voters who gave high priority to environmental issues apparently favored the governor.

Although Bush was falling behind Reagan’s landslides of 1980 and 1984, polls indicated he was shoring up GOP support, drawing about 92% of the vote among those who consider themselves Republicans. He was carrying independents by a margin of 54% to 44% for Dukakis, whereas Reagan won 61% of the independent vote in 1984.

Bush, like Reagan, cut into the Democratic ranks, but the viCe president was getting only 17% of that vote, compared to the 24% Reagan got in 1984.

Bush voters said they were looking for strong leadership, experience, a strong national defense and a strong economy. They also favored Bush’s stance opposing legalized abortions and his stand on curbing illegal drugs.

The vice president was relaxed and in good spirits as he and his wife, Barbara, along with 22 members of their family and dozens of friends and advisers, awaited the election’s final outcome at the Houstonian Hotel.

Campaign Director

At Bush’s side was former Treasury Secretary James A. Baker III, his longtime confidant and director of his almost flawlessly managed election campaign. Baker is widely expected to be named secretary of state in the Bush Administration, although Bush repeatedly refused to discuss potential Cabinet appointments during the campaign.

Baker has made it clear he had no part in the selection of Quayle as Bush’s running mate, the one major decision that Republican strategists considered a negative for the Bush campaign. Baker has said Bush informed him of the selection after he had already told others.

The 41-year-old, boyish-looking Quayle went home to Huntington, Ind., to vote and shake hands with supporters along the town’s main street before settling down to wait for the final outcome in Washington.

“I’m looking forward to being the next vice president of the United States,” he told reporters.

Housing Project

Dukakis, accompanied by his wife, Kitty, and three children, cast his ballot at a housing project in his hometown of Brookline, Mass. He look exhausted and made no statement to some 200 shouting supporters before returning home.

For 50 hours without a break he had sped by plane across the country, stumping in 11 cities in nine key battleground states in his last-ditch effort to turn things around.