ORANGE COUNTY AT WORK: CAREERS, COMPANIES, CORPORATE LIFE : PERSONAL VISIONS : County Business, Academic Leaders Look Ahead 25 Years : Art Perrone Jr., President, Geneva Business Services Inc.

They’ve come to Orange County in droves in the past two decades; businesses big and small. There were almost 50,000 of them at last count.

And each year, hundreds more arrive; finding in Orange County the climate, the skilled labor pool, the living conditions, the proximity to major national and international markets and financial centers that make this area one of the prime business addresses in the world.

But every once in a while, lost in the publicity given to stories of growth and success, comes word that a business has left Orange County, or has looked the county over and decided to pass it by.

The deserters and the no-shows are barely a trickle, but they are an early sign that not all is perfect in paradise.

On the flip side of climate, life style and location are air pollution, traffic congestion, housing that many workers can’t afford and an uncertainty about the adequacy of the county’s water supply.

Mindful that, for all it has going for it, Orange County still has some serious problems to grapple with, The Times asked a group of county business and academic leaders to consider the future--the Orange County of 25 years from now.

None of them pretended to have all the solutions to the problems we face, but each offered a highly personal vision of where the county is going and suggestions as to what it will take to get it there.

Most of the writers were cheerfully upbeat; one offered a fairly pessimistic look at what is to come, and even the most optimistic acknowledged that we face serious problems as we work to keep what we have today from becoming legend tomorrow.

Best of all, each of the six articles that follows offers serious and well-thought suggestions--some sure to become controversial, all worthy of consideration--for beginning to come to grips with the future.

Before discussing what the future will hold for Orange County, a review of the county’s past and the reasons for its growth is necessary.

The population grew rapidly after World War II, from 200,000 in 1950 to more than 1.4 million in 1970. The pace slackened during the next decade, hitting 1.9 million in 1980. And so far in the 1980s, growth has slowed to a trickle, with the population in 1986 just slightly more than 2 million.

But by the thousands or by the dozens, people have come to Orange County for economic opportunities and the quality of life.

The challenge will be to continue to maintain an economic base that provides job opportunities and deals with issues that affect the quality of life--issues like housing, transportation, education, space, clean air and crime.

The economic environment has been good, and remains good. The American dream of taking risks and making it big flourishes here.

Orange County has become the third largest recipient of venture capital in the nation (behind the Silicon Valley and the Boston area) and has been one of the leading counties in the country in terms of initial public stock offerings by companies seeking a broader base of financing.

This area is an incubator for new ideas and technology and is filled with hundreds of small businesses, the bulk of which are in the industries of tomorrow.

The county is very attractive to foreign investment, especially in real estate and selected technology and distribution-based companies. And foreign investment will continue to be attracted here because of the quality of life and because the new tax reform act has made the United States a tax haven for both foreign corporations and individuals.

Therefore, the conditions are such that we should see a continued healthy economy over the next five to 10 years.

But beyond that, the economic base could be endangered if we do not address ourselves to the reasons beyond work that people choose to live in an area.

If we don’t deal with these issues intelligently, we will create an imbalanced labor force, with a shifting of people out of the area.

I believe that several major problems have become severe enough that they already are eroding the quality of life.

Transportation is the first.

We are a county of cars, without adequate highways. There are 1.6 million cars in Orange County--12,600 vehicles per freeway mile. More than any other county in the state, where the average is 3,700 vehicles per freeway mile.

As bad as the conditions are, and each day they get worse, they are apparently not bad enough that residents want to dip into their pockets to solve them. County voters rejected a 1984 ballot initiative to increase the sales tax to pay for transportation improvement projects.

The second major problem is housing. Affordable housing here is almost a joke, with the average cost of a new detached home now almost $200,000.

The bulk of the housing built here is tract housing. It doesn’t age well, but homes built 10 to 15 years ago in many cases sell at more than 10 times original value. Current buyers are paying much more for less quality than the original buyers. And new housing is smaller in size with little or no outside space.

Will people continue to accept less at a higher price in order to own a home here? And will a growing percentage of the population accept renting as a solution?

The difficulty in addressing these and other issues is that we are a fragmented county.

Each city--26 of them--and each of the 33 school districts has different priorities, needs and concerns. Each has political and economic self-interest groups influencing it and consensus is impossible to acheive.

One way to overcome these obstacles is some sort of countywide municipal structure.

But I don’t see this happening, largely because of political objections to consolidation. Therefore, I see the quality of life being reduced for a growing number of people in Orange County, with:

- The more affluent people satisfying their needs by isolating themselves in select communities.

- The middle-income group accepting a lesser standard of living.

- Lower-income people cloistering more in select cities within the county, not able to upgrade themselves.

I see a growing percentage of the middle- and lower-income groups leaving the county in search of a better life, reversing the path of those who came here 20 to 25 years ago.

In the long term, the business and the economic climate could be threatened. Without a balanced labor force, with continuing escalation of land and facility costs, companies will look to other locations outside the county for new or expansion facilities.

But finally, when the economic climate is threatened, solutions will be more readily forthcoming. Economic issues more deeply affect more people than do quality-of-life issues.

We have attracted a lot of talented and resourceful people in Orange County. They will find solutions in time to these issues.

Perrone, 49, has been president of Geneva Business Services Inc., one of the Costa Mesa-based Geneva Companies group, since 1983. A specialist in business mergers and acquisitions, he operated his own management services company prior to joining Geneva.

Perrone lives with his family in Newport Beach.