Poll Analysis: Governor’s Race Widens as June 2 Primary Approaches

The June 2 primary is less than two weeks away and Lt. Governor Gray Davis has opened up a wide lead among the leading Democratic challengers, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll. The California voters prefer an experienced politician rather than one who never held office. They think Attorney General Dan Lungren is the candidate who would do the best job of handling crime (which is what his advertising commercials are focusing on), and also believe that businessman Al Checchi has waged the most negative campaign. Checchi, who has pumped more than $30 million of his own money into his campaign, has faded to a distant third and U.S. Representative Jane Harman, who spent between $4 and $5 million of her money, is somewhere in the middle.

Primary Challenge

     Checchi, who in an April Times poll was tied for first among Democrats with Harman, has dropped from 22% to 10% among likely voters. Davis carried 28% of likely voters, easily outdistancing Harman at 16%. Lungren, the lone Republican, receives 37% of the vote. Among registered voters, Lungren is at 28%, Davis at 24%, Checchi at 17% and Harman at 15%.
     Lungren's and Harman's voters are more certain of their candidates than Checchi's or Davis's voters. Nearly three out of five (58%) likely voters for Lungren and 51% of Harman's voters say they definitely will vote for their candidate, compared to just 36% of Checchi's voters or 44% of Davis' voters. As you can see, these findings underscore the volatility of this year's governor race.

Reasons for the Change in Vote

     Strategically, Checchi has positioned his campaign into targeting Latinos, younger voters and independents, as well as Republicans. However, the first three groups are low propensity voters, while the Republicans have gone back to their own backyard, namely Lungren. To illustrate this point, three out of 10 Latino registered voters say they would vote for Checchi over the other three candidates, but among Latino likely voters his vote declines dramatically to barely double digits. Latinos are approximately 17% of registered voters, but 11% among likely voters. Fifty-three percent of registered Republican voters say they would vote for Lungren, but it increases to 68% when Republican likely voters say they will vote for the attorney general.
     Negative television ads have turned voters off and Checchi is being adversely affected by this. Checchi is seen as the candidate who has run the most negative campaign. More than two out of five likely voters (45%) say that Checchi is the candidate who has run the most negative campaign (the other candidates receive low single digits). And of those likely voters who say Checchi is running the most negative campaign, 40% say they will vote for Davis, 17% for Harman, 6% for Checchi, and 30% for Lungren. However, twenty-one percent of likely voters say all of the candidates are guilty of running negative campaigns and 43% of these voters say they will vote for Lungren, 16% for Checchi, 22% for Davis and 7% for Harman.
     Besides the negative ads affecting Checchi's vote, voters are more interested in having a candidate with years of political experience than one who has just a business background. More than half (51%) of the likely voters are saying that they prefer a candidate for governor who has had years of experience in elected office. This is a seven point increase when the question was asked in an April Times poll. Conversely, there has been a sharp decline from the last poll by 18 points, from 36% to 18% of likely voters who preferr a candidate who has never held elected office, but has a career in business.
     When asked registered voters why they were voting for their candidate, Lungren's voters say: he is a Republican (25%), like his stand on the issues (24%) and he is the best candidate (18%). The Checchi voters mention: like his stand on the issues (23%), like his stand on education (19%) and he is the best candidate (16%). The Davis voters say: he is most qualified/experienced (40%), like his stand on the issues (16%) and he is the best candidate (16%). And the Harman voters cite: like her stand on the issues (34%), she is a woman (21%) and she is the best candidate (13%).

Who Is Voting for the Candidates

     Likely Democrats are casting their votes for Davis (41%), Harman (26%) and Checchi (11%). Lungren is getting 11% of the Democratic voters. Two thirds (68%) of likely Republicans say they will vote for Lungren, while 25% indicate they will crossover and cast their vote for Democrats -- Davis gets 14%, Checchi receives 7%, Harman gets 4%. Among liberals who are likely to vote 10% will vote for Lungren, 18% for Checchi, 41% for Davis and 25% for Harman. More moderates who are likely to vote say they will vote for Davis (37%), than the other two Democratic candidates (Harman gets 13% and Checchi receives 9%). Nearly one in three (27%) say they will vote for the Republican attorney general. And conservatives are solidly behind Lungren (60%). Thirteen percent each say they will vote for Davis and Harman, while just 6% will vote for Checchi.
     Interestingly, 53% of registered voters and 49% of likely voters agree with the statement that it is time for a woman governor. Yet, overall, Harman is not benefiting from that notion. She doesn't receive widespread support from women. Of those registered voters who agree with that statement, just 19% say they will vote for Harman, compared to 25% who will vote for Davis, 19% for Checchi and 18% for Lungren. Only 8% who disagree will vote for the female candidate. Harman is benefiting slightly from those voters who agree with the statement that it is time for a woman governor by eleven points over those who disagree with the statement.
     In general, we are also not seeing a gender gap between Harman and her Democratic opponents. However, we are seeing one between Democratic men and Democratic women. About a fifth (19%) of women likely to vote say they will vote for Harman, while 25% of the women say they will cast their vote for Davis, 9% for Checchi and 37% for Lungren. Comparing the men's vote: 11% will vote for Harman, 32% for Davis, 11% for Checchi and 38% for Lungren. However, Democratic women are Harman's biggest supporters, even though Davis virtually ties her for this group. Thirty-four percent of likely Democratic women say they will vote for Harman, 38% will vote for Davis, 7% for Checchi and 10% for Lungren. Likely Democratic men, on the other hand, are more enthusiastic about Davis giving him 43% of their vote, while 17% will vote for Harman, 15% for Checchi and 13% for Lungren. Liberal Democrats and non-liberal Democrats are voting for Davis (43%, 39% respectively), followed by Harman (27%, 26% respectively) and in distant third Checchi (17%, 8% respectively).
     The older voters are usually the ones that come out to vote and they are voting for Davis (30%) or Lungren (36%). Eighteen percent of this likely voter group is for Harman and 9% for Checchi. Even the more affluent likely voter group is voting for Davis (29%) or Lungren (36%). Harman gets 14% of the vote from this group and Checchi receives 13%.

Candidates and the Issues

     Among the three Democratic challengers, Davis wins on all three issues specifically mentioned in the survey -- crime, education and the economy. But when asked who better understands people like yourself, among likely voters Lungren, Harman and Davis are bunched together at 26%, 25% and 23%, respectively. Checchi, who has a net worth of more than $700 million and has spent more than $30 million of his own money, comes in at a distant fourth at 5%. He clearly doesn't resonate with the voters.
     Education has been the focus of the three Democratic challengers. They all have television commercials trying to woo the voters with their ways of improving the public school education. Yet, Davis comes off as the best candidate equipped to handle education (22% of registered and 27% of likely voters). Seventeen percent of registered and 22% of likely voters say that Harman would be best on this issue, while Checchi comes in a distant third. Only 14% of registered and 9% of likely voters believe Checchi is the candidate best on education.
     Lungren is the clear winner on best handling crime with 33% of registered voters and 48% of likely voters giving him this issue. However among the three Democrats, Davis outdistances his opponents on this issue. Twenty percent of registered and 23% of likely voters give this point to Davis, while the other two Democrats are in single digits among likely voters (6% for Checchi and 7% for Harman).
     Davis also gets the economy on his side of the scoreboard -- 25% of registered and 27% of likely voters give this to him, while Checchi receives 19% of registered and 20% of likely voters. Harman receives 11% each of registered and likely voters, while Lungren gets 19% of registered and 25% of likely voters.

Overall Impressions of the Candidates

     Davis has better favorable impressions than his opponents and Checchi is now perceived more in negative terms than positive. Fifty-six percent of registered voters and 66% of likely voters have a favorable impression of the lieutenant governor, 18% of registered voters and 21% of likely voters feel negatively toward him. Even 54% of Republican voters have a favorable impression of him. Actually his favorable ratings have risen slightly from the poll conducted in April.
     On the other hand, Checchi's ratings were much more positive last month than they are in this current poll. Thirty-seven percent of registered voters and 34% of likely voters have a favorable impression of him, while 42% of registered voters and 52% of likely voters have an unfavorable impression. Last month, 49% of registered voters and 51% of likely voters had a favorable impression of the businessman. One reason that may explain why his favorable ratings are on the decline is: if the voters had a favorable impression of Checchi, only 18% thought he was running the more negative campaign, but if they had an unfavorable impression of him, 54% thought Checchi was the candidate running the more negative campaign. And looked at another way, of those who thought Checchi ran the more negative campaign, 70% had an unfavorable opinion of him. Even among registered Democrats, Checchi is in trouble -- 36% have a favorable opinion, while 45% have an unfavorable opinion.
     Harman's ratings have also declined from a more positive rating to a more negative one. Among registered voters 38% have a favorable impression of the Torrance Congresswoman, while 32% have an unfavorable impression. Among likely voters, 39% have a favorable opinion of Harman, while 40% have an unfavorable opinion. Compared to last month's results, Harman had 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable among registered voters and 46% favorable and 27% unfavorable among likely voters. Women voters are more inclined to have a favorable opinion (39% to 32% unfavorable) of her than not. And about half of the Democrats also have a positive impression of her.
     Lungren's ratings have not changed much from last month's survey findings. Among registered voters, 46% have a favorable impression and 23% have an unfavorable impression. Among likely voters, 58% have a favorable impression and 25% have an unfavorable impression. Democrats are divided in their opinions about the attorney general (31%ˆ32%) and, not surprisingly, 70% of Republicans have a favorable opinion, as do 60% of conservatives.

What Voters Think About the Television Commercials

     Among likely voters, virtually all voters have seen or heard Checchi ads, while 79% have seen Harman ads, 66% have seen Davis ads and 60% have seen Lungren ads.
     Of those who saw or heard ads about Checchi, 26% of likely voters say it made them more favorable toward the candidate, 20% say it made no difference and 51% say it made them less favorable toward the businessman. Even 48% of Democrats say the ads about Checchi made them less favorable.
     Of those who saw or heard ads about Harman, 45% of likely voters say it made them more favorable, 17% say it made no difference and 36% say it made them less favorable. Half of the registered Democrats say it made them more favorable toward Harman.
     Of those who saw or heard ads about Davis, 54% of likely voters say it made them more favorable toward him, 21% say it made no difference and 22% say it made them less favorable about the candidate. More than half of the registered Democrats say the ads about the lieutenant governor made them more favorable.
     Of those who saw or heard ads about Lungren, 51% of likely voters say it made them more favorable toward the candidate, 27% say it made no difference and 20% say it made them more favorable toward Lungren. Nearly three out five registered Republicans say the commercials about Lungren made them more favorable toward the attorney general.

Looking to the Future Election in November

     Davis seems the candidate to beat in November. Among registered voters, Davis beats Lungren 51%ˆ35%, a 16 point lead, compared to a 12 point lead he had in April. Lungren reversed Checchi's lead over him, running 44%ˆ37% over the businessman now, compared to Checchi's 47%ˆ37% advantage in April. Lungren also improved his standing against Harman, raising himself to a 42%ˆ42% tie, compared to her 44%ˆ39% margin in last month's poll.


How the Poll Was Conducted

     The Times Poll contacted 1,514 California adults, including 1,097 registered voters and 506 likely voters, by telephone May 16 though 20. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points; for likely voters it is 5 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.