How California voters challenged the state’s deep-blue reputation this election

A man puts something in a big box next to a person in a bright yellow vest.

By Ryan FonsecaStaff Writer

Nov. 15, 2024 6:30 AM PT

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

Understanding the ballot measures that passed and failed.
New LAPD chief says people aren’t calling the police enough — and that needs to change.
This cozy enclave near Santa Barbara offers easy vibes and a dash of star power.
And here’s today’s e-newspaper.

Did progressivism in California take a hit this election?

You could fill the Rose Bowl with all the election postmortems being published since Trump’s undeniable victory last week (including plenty from The Times).

But let’s focus on the state ballot measures, which give Californians direct democratic power to legislate all sorts of shifts in policy and funding.

With a majority of ballots counted (roughly 87%), voters voiced adequate support to enshrine equal marriage rights in the state Constitution, green-light billions of dollars for schools and environmental protections, and permanently fund state healthcare programs for low-income residents.

But for measures pitched as opportunities to boost much-needed affordable housing, reduce income inequality and reform the criminal justice system by ending forced prison labor, a majority of voters did not swing. And they overwhelmingly passed Proposition 36, imposing stricter criminal sentencing for theft and fentanyl crimes, while rejecting progressive-minded prosecutors in L.A. County and the Bay Area.

People walk and hold signs that say "Yes on 36."

“Some progressive voters in the state, where Democrats control the governor’s office and Legislature, were dumbfounded by the early results,” my colleague Mackenzie Mays reported recently, “while Republicans seized on the moment as proof that California is becoming more conservative.”

About 10.3 million registered voters in the state are Democrats (about 46%), according to state data crunched at the 2024 election registration deadline. Compare that with a roughly 5.6 million registered Republicans (25%) and 4.9 million people with no party affiliation (22%).

It stands to reason then that a notable number of registered Democrats voted for Proposition 36 — given that it received over 9 million “yes” votes (and counting) — as well as against other measures championed by progressive members of their party.

California is often talked about as a deep-blue state that many might downplay or forget its conservative history. It’s true that registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans nearly 2 to 1 among Golden State voters. But last week’s election results are a reminder that there are shades of blue (and red) among California’s electorate — and partisanship has its limits at the ballot box.

Scanning through the outcomes, I had a few main questions:

Is California’s reputation as a progressive stronghold greatly exaggerated?
What key factors influenced voters’ rejection of more progressive policies and candidates?
Is it evidence of liberal hypocrisy, as some argue? Or the result of tempered support among core progressive organizations?
What should people take away from the mixed outcome?

I took my questions to Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley.

He’s not convinced by narratives about a red wave surging on blue California’s horizon, but explained that the results indicate “a more cautious, conservative public mood than was the case four years ago.”

“California is still quite blue … and, compared to the country, quite progressive,” Schickler said. “But voters respond to their perceptions of problems in the world and will be willing to do things that go against that kind of stereotype or dominant view of the state.”

People stand in two rows in front of yellow boxes.

Exhibit A: Housing

California Democrats’ official 2024 platform mentions the importance of boosting affordable housing over a dozen times and voices support for rent control and other tenant protection measures.

But voters’ rejected efforts designed to expand rent control (Proposition 33) and lower the vote threshold needed to pass local affordable housing and transportation bond measures (Proposition 5).

Schickler noted several factors that may have influenced those outcomes, including a split among Democrats on Proposition 33, general distrust of politicians, aversion to giving up power in local decision-making and a level of ambivalence about solutions. On top of all that was the barrage of election information that pushed some topics to the front of voters’ minds while others slid back, he said, “which then tends to give an advantage to the ‘no’ side.”

“It does certainly suggest that voters have not gotten to the point of saying: ‘OK, we need to do everything possible to ensure we maximize the housing supply,’ ” Schickler said. “That may be what the state needs and where some of the politicians are trying to go, but it doesn’t seem like we’re there.”

Exhibit B: Criminal justice

The party platform for California Democrats also included opposition to involuntary servitude, and “support reducing prison overcrowding by decreasing penalties and decriminalizing certain drug and other non-violent offenses.”

Proposition 6, which was placed on the ballot with a bipartisan vote from state lawmakers, was rejected while Proposition 36 passed with nearly 70% “yes” votes.

For Schickler, the pendulum swing on criminal justice reform “suggests that when there are problems in the state that are highly visible to voters and annoy voters, even Democrats [are] willing to take positions that really depart from what Democrats as a party want.”

Ahead of the election, the UC Berkeley institute conducted a poll, co-sponsored by The Times, that showed a majority of likely voters favored Proposition 36.

That survey didn’t indicate some consensus among California’s electorate that tough-on-crime policies and putting more people in prison is the solution, Schickler said. Looking forward, he’ll be studying if the shift was a slight “course correction” or a harbinger of a growing tough-on-crime attitude in the state.

“One can argue about whether voters were right or not in thinking crime has gotten much worse, but they clearly believe that,” he said.

It could take years to understand how Proposition 33, Proposition 36 and other ballot initiatives affect life in the Golden State. But much like the Christmas creep that’s already upon us, the elections of 2026 and 2028 will sneak up fast. That’ll bring more ballot measures and more chances to understand how California’s electorate is changing, or changing back. And more postmortems. So. Many. Postmortems.

Today’s top stories

A man holding a little girl walks behind a man in a police uniform.

The new LAPD chief says people aren’t calling the police enough — and that needs to change

Newly sworn-in LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell voiced concern about the perception of disorder in the city, saying crimes are going unreported because people believe nothing will be done.
McDonnell placed some blame on prosecutors for not pressing charges in many low-level crimes — a policy that is expected to change when Nathan Hochman takes over as L.A. County district attorney.

Palm Springs will pay $5.9 million to Black and Latino families over razed homes

The Palm Springs City Council approved the settlement Thursday with the Black and Latino families whose homes were razed and burned in a brutal urban renewal project in the 1950s and 1960s.
The city apologized in 2021 for its actions, and discussions regarding reparations have continued for years.

The expansion of the San Luis Reservoir is set to boost California’s water-storing capacity

The federal government and California water agencies reached an agreement to share the costs of raising a dam to expand the reservoir — a nearly $1-billion project.
The raising of the dam, which could take years to complete, is aimed at increasing the state’s water-storage capacity amid concerns over worsening droughts.

The University of California wants to enroll 3,600 more Californians next year, but funding shortfalls threaten that plan

UC officials say the 10-campus university system could face a $504.7-million shortfall if state officials cut higher education funding as they confront their own budget deficit.
University officials, who have been pummeled by demands to open more seats for Californians in recent years, say they are prioritizing enrollment increases.

What else is going on

UCLA failed to protect students from a protest melee this spring because of a “highly chaotic” decision-making process, an independent review found.
Could L.A.’s rezoning plan to boost housing supply cause more tenant displacement?
Higher monthly payments loom for many student loan borrowers.
A Beverly Hills High School substitute said she was fired over posts criticizing Trump and MAGA students.
Wine retailers are bracing for higher prices if Trump moves forward with his plan to impose tariffs on many imported products.

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Commentary and opinions

From Kimmel’s Musk roast to Trump’s Cabinet appointments, humor is all we have right now, news and culture critic Lorraine Ali writes.
In Matt Gaetz, Donald Trump has chosen the anti-attorney general, writes Harry Litman, host of the “Talking Feds” podcast.
Ysabel Jurado vanquished Kevin de León. Columnist Gustavo Arellano wonders whether winning will change her.
OpenAI just scored a huge victory in a copyright case, but the battle may not be over, business columnist Michael Hiltzik writes.

This morning’s must reads

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L.A. Olympics boss Reynold Hoover uses wartime problem-solving skills to plan the 2028 Games. When Hoover talks about his new role as chief executive for LA28, the private group responsible for staging the Games and the ensuing Paralympics, he often refers to his stint as a brigadier general in the Afghanistan war.

Other must reads

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How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].

For your downtime

People surround a woman cutting and serving a cake at a table.

Going out

🐴 This cozy enclave near Santa Barbara offers easy vibes and a dash of star power.
🎥 From “Twisters” to “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” decades-later sequels have scored big at the box office. Will “Gladiator II” continue the trend?
🎞️ U2 made a concert movie of its Sphere show. Sphere is the only place you can see it.
🎄 Jeremy Renner was named as this year’s grand marshal of the Hollywood Christmas Parade.

Staying in

🍽️ Black chefs across L.A. share the recipes that define their Thanksgiving holidays, including lamb biriyani, macaroni pie and carrot cake.
🏆 Conan O’Brien to host the 97th Academy Awards, marking his first time as Oscar emcee.
🥊 Netflix takes a big swing into live sports with Friday’s Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight.
📱 Spotify tries to woo video and podcast creators with new tools to better compete with YouTube.
📺 A new animated PBS series features characters with autism.
✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

A question for you: What books, movies, TV shows, songs or works of art have inspired you?

Chris Ungar writes: “It was 1964, the height of the Cold War. I was 12 years old and terrified of nuclear annihilation. Then I saw ‘Dr. Strangelove’ and my fear melted away. The full title of the movie is ‘Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.’ I won’t say that I loved the bomb, but from then on, I was able to sleep tight.

“Thank you Stanley Kubrick, Peter Sellers, Terry Southern and Peter George for creating this all-time great satire.”

Jody Stefansson writes: “I am inspired to contribute to your question about artistic inspiration because I hope the little book that I return to over and over again might bring joyful calm and happiness to others.

“‘The Animal Family,’ written by poet Randall Jarrell and with decorations by Maurice Sendak (originally published by Random House in 1965), is a short, wise novel that gently but strongly inspires my faith in humanity with its inclusive, relatable story about loneliness, community and love. The combined wistful writing and lush decorations take me away and bring me home all at once, and I am always a better human when I return.”

And Neil Kramer writes: “The most powerful moment in film for me came in ‘Casablanca’ when Rick responded to his band leader’s inquiring look and approved playing ‘La Marseillaise’ with just a nod of his head. I learned courage and conviction can be expressed in many ways, large and small.”

And finally ... your photo of the day

Today’s great photo is from Christine Pence of Riverside: an amazing view of the San Luis Reservoir.

Christine writes: “San Luis Reservoir and State Park provides an interesting overlook of California ‘golden’ and the meandering storms of November across the California Central Valley.”

Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they’re important to you.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Defne Karabatur, fellow
Andrew Campa, Sunday reporter
Hunter Clauss, multiplatform editor
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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