Tide shifts against criminal justice reform among California voters

Published Nov. 6, 2024 Updated Nov. 7, 2024 9:25 AM PT

Four years after nationwide calls for a reimagining of the criminal justice system, voters dramatically reversed course on Tuesday night.
California voters passed Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime ballot measure, and ousted progressive prosecutors in Los Angeles and Alameda counties.
Proposition 6, an effort to ban involuntary servitude and mandatory work requirements for state prisoners, also failed.

In deep-blue L.A. County, the “godfather of progressive prosecutors” lost his reelection bid by more than 20 percentage points to a former Republican.

In the Bay Area, voters appear to have recalled another reform-minded district attorney.

And statewide, a tough-on-crime ballot initiative passed with overwhelming support.

Four years after nationwide calls for police accountability and a reimagining of the criminal justice system led to big wins for reform candidates in California, voters dramatically reversed course Tuesday night.

Former federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman, who ran a law-and-order campaign against incumbent Dist. Atty. George Gascón in Los Angeles, won by 23 points.

Nearly two-third of voters supported the recall of Alameda County Dist. Atty. Pamela Price amid concerns over crime and rampant homelessness. It was the second time in three years a progressive Bay Area district attorney has been booted from office before finishing their term.

Proposition 36, which will essentially erase California’s landmark 2014 sentencing reform bill, received support from 70% of voters Tuesday. Democrats have warned the move will reinstate draconian drug war policies, leading to longer prison terms for many crimes.

Dan Schnur, a former advisor to Republican politicians in California who teaches political communications at USC, said that since the last election, “the culture in both California and across the country has become more concerned about violent crime and retail theft.”

“Voters are notorious course correcters,” Schnur said. “They are always adjusting their last decisions to try to make them a little bit better.”

Violent crime surged nationwide early in the COVID-19 pandemic, and viral videos of so-called smash-and-grab robberies at retail stores became staples of nightly news in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Donald Trump spent much of his successful presidential campaign painting the U.S. as lawless and unsafe under the Biden administration.

Statewide, violent crime rose by 15% from 2020 to 2023, according to California Department of Justice data, while property crime jumped about 5.5%. Property crimes began to decrease in 2023 in 46 counties, including nine of the 15 largest. The remaining six of the largest counties saw a jump, including Alameda.

Chesa Boudin, the former district attorney of San Francisco who was recalled in 2022, understands that voters are outraged

“Across the state, voters are really concerned about public safety and are frustrated with incumbents,” Boudin said.

Panic over lawlessness in San Francisco drove the progressive Boudin’s ouster two years ago, even though crime rates fell while he was in office. His more traditional successor, Brooke Jenkins, glided to reelection Tuesday night despite data showing that violent crime increased during her tenure.

Across the bay, Price faced a recall movement almost as soon as she was elected. Alameda’s first Black female district attorney, she pledged to address police misconduct and stop overcriminalizing young people. She has been criticized for her failure to prosecute crimes, even though county data show she filed cases at nearly the same rate as her predecessor, according to news site Berkeleyside.

Early returns showed 65% of Alameda County voters supported her recall. She has served less than two years of a six-year term.

“It’s crazy to expect that someone new to office … would be able to achieve something voters want in two years,” Boudin said. “It’s just not realistic.”

Tyrell Baker, 60, a voter from San Leandro, also questioned whether a recall would resolve the issues voters are most concerned about.

“The people that came up with the recall want someone to do something undoable,” Baker said. “They want this superhero politician to come in.”

Although there is no singular facet that causes crime statistics to rise or fall, victims rights advocates and law enforcement leaders have recently aimed their frustrations at two targets: progressive prosecutors such as those in L.A. and the Bay Area, and Proposition 47.

The 2014 ballot initiative — which came at a time when California wanted to reduce its prison population and limit its reliance on incarceration — reduced some felonies to misdemeanors and allowed some prisoners to be resentenced or released if the crime they were convicted of had been reclassified.

In the decade since its passing, the ballot measure, which Gascón helped write, has persistently been blamed by critics for increases in shoplifting and retail theft.

Studies by the Public Policy Institute of California have questioned whether Proposition 47 is to blame for increases in crimes such as larceny and commercial burglary, also pointing to low solve rates by police. Overall, property crime is down 6% statewide from 2014 to 2023, according to the state Department of Justice.

Proposition 36 will essentially undo the 2014 law by increasing penalties for theft and certain drug crimes. It faced resistance in Sacramento and from Gov. Gavin Newsom, despite polls long forecasting its passage.

Some experts have suggested the bill’s inclusion of a component that gives nonviolent drug offenders the option to enroll in rehab rather than jailing them may have made it more appealing to moderate and left-leaning voters. Whether most counties have the funding or programs ready to make that component of the law viable in January remains uncertain.

There are also still looming questions as to how the measure may conflict with a package of retail theft bills Newsom signed into law in August.

Nicholas Hobbs, a 32-year-old downtown L.A. resident, is among those who wanted to see more concerted efforts to clean up the streets.

He cast votes for Gascón and Proposition 36, noting that while he rejects the idea that crime is out of control, living near Skid Row he sees firsthand the effects of mental illness and addiction. Encampments continue to encroach on his neighborhood, he said, and someone recently broke into his apartment building by throwing a stanchion pole through a window.

“The general gist of saying everything is worse, is dangerous — it’s not true. But aesthetically, things have gotten worse,” he said.

He had concerns that Gascón’s policies were too “reactionary” to the political moment in 2020, but said he didn’t find Hochman to be a credible alternative.

Business interests played a role in driving concerns about property crime and organized retail thefts, which were repeatedly highlighted by proponents of Proposition 36, even though a Times investigation previously suggested such groups often grossly inflate the financial losses they suffer due to crime. Walmart, Home Depot and Target were among the initiative’s most generous donors. Backing from big businesses also helped Hochman gain a massive fundraising advantage over Gascón.

For the record:

9:26 a.m. Nov. 7, 2024An earlier version of this article misspelled the first name of the Vera Institute’s Insha Rahman as Insah.

Insha Rahman, vice president for advocacy and partnerships at the Vera Institute, a nonprofit organization that advocates for criminal justice reform, said the sight of items at pharmacies and big-box stores locked behind protective glass to prevent shoplifting has a more immediate effect on voters than any data point.

“The retailers’ incentive to push the tough-on-crime measures is that they’re seeing declines in sales, and a way to say to customers, ‘Come on back,’ is to say, ‘We’ve done something about retail theft or people loitering outside using drugs,’ ” she said.

Another setback for criminal justice advocates this year was the failure of Proposition 6, which trailed Wednesday morning with 54% of voters casting a “no” vote. This marks the second failed attempt to ban involuntary servitude and mandatory work requirements for state prisoners. A similar measure is likely to pass in Nevada.

Assemblymember Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisan City) who authored the legislation that became Proposition 6, questioned whether criminal justice reform “has gone too far.”

Amid polling that showed the measure unlikely to pass, Wilson told The Times before Tuesday’s vote that voters “are concerned about their safety,” which has seemingly translated into resistance to prison reforms in general. But, Wilson said, it doesn’t mean voters support slavery.

Rahman viewed the election day results as a sign of a panicky electorate that was hammered with alarmist rhetoric about violence and thefts for months.

“When voters are frustrated, when voters are fearful, criminal justice reform is an easy target to exploit that fear and frustration,” she said. “We saw the GOP and conservative forces from Trump on down the ticket use the fear of crime as a political cudgel.”

Hochman, who ran as an independent in a race during which Gascón repeatedly tried to paint him as an ultraconservative, scoffed at the idea that partisanship had anything to do with Tuesday’s results. He described public safety as a “crossover issue” and said California voters are simply looking for someone to make them feel secure.

“In a hyperpartisan political environment in which this election took place,” he said. “An independent just beat a Democrat who tried to politicize the race. ... People ultimately want to have safety for themselves and their families.”

Tide shifts against criminal justice reform among California voters

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