One Thing Is Certain: Some Teams Already Hurting

Forget the program.

You can’t tell the players without a medical chart.

As the 1999 season opens tonight, a spring of devastating injuries and illnesses has threatened the balance in several divisions and altered races even before the first pitch.

Consider the National League Central, where the Houston Astros will seek a three-peat without Moises Alou, who is out for the year after undergoing knee surgery; the Chicago Cubs will try to regain the wild card without Kerry Wood, who is out for the year after having elbow reconstruction; the St. Louis Cardinals will try to mount a challenge without Matt Morris, who is also out for the year because of elbow reconstruction, and the longshot Cincinnati Reds will open the season with newly acquired ace Denny Neagle on the disabled list because of a weak shoulder and Pete Harnisch, their No. 2, sidelined by back spasms.

“I don’t know if this opens any doors,” said Phil Garner, manager of the undermanned but comparatively sound Milwaukee Brewers, “but a big part of winning is feeling you can win, and when you lose a Wood or an Alou, you’re bound to lose some of that feeling.”

The Angels know the feeling.

Buoyed by Mo Vaughn but still hounded by that long pattern of misfortune, they will try to beat the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners in the American League West without Gary DiSarcina, their shortstop and soul, who is out until at least midseason because of a broken bone in his forearm.

The Atlanta Braves will try to hold off the recharged New York Mets in the National League East without Andres Galarraga, who is out for the season because of bone cancer, and reliever Kerry Ligtenberg, also out for the season because of elbow reconstruction.

The New York Yankees, seeking to duplicate their 1998 domination, will open the season without Manager Joe Torre, who is recovering from prostate surgery; left-hander Andy Pettitte, who is testing his recurring elbow stiffness in the extended spring program, and Darryl Strawberry, who is continuing his comeback from colon cancer in the same format.

The Colorado Rockies are expected to put Larry Walker, who recently received a six-year, $75-million extension, on the disabled list because of a muscle pull in the ribs, and the Dodgers, while feeling better about it, still are uncertain about the availability of pivotal catcher Todd Hundley, who had elbow reconstruction in ’97.

How does it play out?

Here’s one view:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

West: 1. Dodgers; 2. Arizona; 3. San Francisco; 4. Colorado; 5. San Diego.

Comment: a puzzling division. Can Dusty Baker nurse another 90 wins out of the Giants? How will Jim Leyland impact the Rockies? Can the Diamondbacks truly contend in their second season? What should be expected from the Padres in transition? The difference? Arizona may argue, but no one in the West can match the quantity and quality of the Dodgers’ starting pitching--with Chan Ho Park, Ismael Valdes and Darren Dreifort all likely to have watershed seasons behind Kevin Brown.

Central: 1. Houston; 2. St. Louis; 3. Cincinnati; 4. Chicago; 5. Pittsburgh; 6. Milwaukee.

Comment: The Astros won without Alou and should be able to again, but in a division featuring Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, will anyone really be paying attention to the race?

East: 1. Atlanta; 2. New York; 3. Montreal; 4. Philadelphia; 5. Florida.

Comment: The Mets re-signed Mike Piazza and Al Leiter and added Robin Ventura, Rickey Henderson, Bobby Bonilla, Orel Hershiser and Armando Benitez, among others, but they still have to prove they can win in a division ruled by the Braves. Brian Jordan and Bret Boone figure to compensate somewhat for the loss of Galarraga, and Atlanta still has that remarkable rotation--20-year-old Odalis Perez is moving into the No. 5 spot--to take the pressure off the bullpen. Comeback reliever Mark Wohlers and heat-throwing John Rocker will replace Ligtenberg.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

West: 1. Texas; 2. Angels; 3. Seattle; 4. Oakland.

Comment: I’m not sold on the Rangers, but the loss of DiSarcina, their suspect rotation, the potentially combustible issue of finding playing time for four front-line outfielders and their star-crossed history make it difficult to pick the Angels--despite Mo.

Central: 1. Cleveland; 2. Detroit; 3. Chicago; 4. Kansas City; 5. Minnesota.

Comment: The Indians have 162 games to prepare for the playoffs. No team in any division is such a lock--and the Indians probably will get even better by acquiring Curt Schilling in July. Two teams--the Royals and Twins--already have unloaded their high-priced veterans and the improving Tigers are not yet in Cleveland’s class, but could be a wild-card contender.

East: 1. New York; 2. Baltimore; 3. Toronto; 4. Boston; 5. Tampa Bay.

Comment: The Yankees need only fear themselves. But given the quality of their personnel, the professional approach, the calm and consistent leadership of Torre, and the owner’s whip and lip--George Steinbrenner outdid himself Thursday when he labeled Hideki Irabu a fat toad--a letdown seems remote. Pitching already separated the Yankees from the rest of the division and league, and the rich got richer with the acquisition of Roger Clemens, who provides a missing element of intimidation--if 125 wins weren’t intimidating enough.

WORD PLAY

The fence in center and left-center at Edison Field has been moved in nine feet, a decision that bemused Texas pitchers, who believed the move was made to favor Vaughn’s opposite-field power.

Noting that Vaughn used to pepper Fenway Park’s Green Monster in left, Texas reliever Tim Crabtree, alluding to the Angels’ uniform trim, said of the fence, “They ought to call it the Periwinkle Monster.”

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

The Royals, 72-89 last year and having dumped veterans Tim Belcher, Dean Palmer, Jose Offerman and Pat Rapp during the off-season, had a 22-9 spring record through Saturday, baseball’s best. That included a 5-1 record against Cleveland, 2-0 against the Yankees and wins over Atlanta and Houston.

“When you lose power and starting pitchers, you have to wonder,” closer Jeff Montgomery, one of the few returning veterans, said. “It looks like you’ve lost everything, but the encouraging thing this spring is, we’ve played well against good teams. We’re back to Square 1 on opening day, but it’s at least something to build on. We know we can compete.”

PATCHWORK

Angel President Tony Tavares has concerns about putting advertising patches on uniform sleeves.

“One of the biggest problems that everyone talks about is the disparity in revenue between the large and small markets, but I have to wonder if this wouldn’t exacerbate it,” he said. “Isn’t a sleeve in Anaheim or Los Angeles worth more than it would be in Minnesota or Milwaukee, or any small market? I would think so.

“Also, most clubs already have an insignia or two on the sleeve and I’m concerned this would be looked on as more commercialization.

“People in the licensing and marketing offices are only doing their jobs, looking for ways to increase revenue, but we as owners have to take a hard look at the impact of the proposals.”

A licensing official calling from New York said the media and some club executives had missed the point of the concept, that it isn’t specifically designed to raise revenue or fix the disparity.

“The idea is to create marketing partnerships aimed at families and kids and to help keep ticket prices in line,” he said.

“We’re looking at five or six options and it’s very premature to say we’re going to adopt or recommend one or another.”

He added that the advertising patch wouldn’t exacerbate the disparity problem because the idea would be to share the accrued revenue among all clubs once it reached a certain level.

Tavares is on the committee appointed by Commissioner Bud Selig to study baseball’s economic problems and recommend possible solutions. A salary cap? Increased revenue sharing? Tavares wouldn’t discuss possible solutions but said the competitive imbalance threatens the game’s stability.

“My belief is that we have to find some form of equalization on the field or we face serious problems in the future,” he said.

SWAN SONG

Garth Brooks ended his baseball career at the right time--before he took the spotlight away from young players dedicated to a dream, trying to earn a living in the game and who would have loved to have even one of those 22 exhibition at-bats Brooks received.

No one really thought he was going to start a professional baseball career at 37, but he treated the game with respect, worked hard, raised awareness of his charity, the Touch ‘em All Foundation, and provided a lesson in relating to fans. He helped fill Arizona ballparks and signed thousands of autographs--once by flashlight. A good time was had by nearly all, which is where it should be left.