Surge in Home Sales Hints at Recovery

After nearly a year of dismal sales, Ventura County real estate agents may be getting an early, long-awaited Christmas present.

The number of homes sold in the county during November increased 10% over sales from the same month last year. That marks the first month since January that sales have bettered last year’s figures.

In all, 822 homes were sold in the county last month, compared to 747 in November of 1994.

“I think people in general are buying into the fact that there’s a recovery,” said UC Santa Barbara economist Mark Schniepp.

For months, Schniepp and others have pointed to Ventura’s strong employment figures and retail sales as signs the county’s economy was improving. November’s home sales numbers, he said, suggest the good economic news has finally filtered down to the real estate market.

“I mean, jobs have been created, so it’s about time that houses start to sell again,” he said.

But Nima Nattagh, a market research analyst TRW REDI Property Data, warned that the apparent turnaround may be an illusion. Considering that the slide in home sales began last October and November, he said, the current figures look good in comparison.

“The rate of decline has slowed down,” he said, “but I don’t see necessarily a positive trend.”

November’s figures showed a 13% increase from October, when sales totaled 727. October’s sales, in turn, were almost unchanged from the previous October, when 730 homes were sold.

Even October’s relatively flat sales figures, however, contrasted sharply with the rest of 1995. For most of the year, countywide home sales have averaged well below sales in the corresponding months of 1994.

During the first 11 months of this year, Ventura County sales totaled 7,790, a 14% drop from same period last year.

Although the market in November appeared strongest in eastern Ventura County--with 199 homes sold in Simi Valley and 186 in Thousand Oaks--cities in the west also fared well. Ventura saw 126 homes change hands last month; Oxnard, 109.

In addition, the average price of homes sold during the month edged up 2.6% compared to last November, from $226,287 to $232,092.

The rising sales are unusual considering the time of year. Home sales traditionally taper off in November and December as shoppers’ thoughts turn to the holidays, said Kathy White, executive sales associate at Fred Sands Brown Realtors in the Westlake neighborhood of Thousand Oaks.

White credited the strong sales to falling interest rates and the belief among consumers that home prices may be bottoming out.

“A lot of people are just tired of waiting,” she said.

The slow exodus of people from Los Angeles County is still fueling Conejo Valley home sales, White said. “If everybody in the San Fernando Valley could sell their houses, we wouldn’t have enough out here,” she said.

The quality of life remains a strong selling point for Ventura as well. Last week, Judy Hoag of Paris and Associates Real Estate had one potential buyer from West Covina looking to escape the smog.

“I’ve been as busy as I can be,” Hoag said. She, too, said the low interest rates were enticing fence-sitters to act.

“I have a first-time buyer, and her father told her it was time to buy,” she said. “And he’s a mortgage broker, by the way.”

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Ventura County House Sales

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November 1994 November 1995 Number Average Number Average City/ZIP code of sales price of sales price CAMARILLO 93010 63 $216,262 36 $228,271 93012 21 $288,952 27 $296,128 93066 4 $361,333 2 $527,000 FILLMORE 93015 7 $192,143 9 $147,167 MOORPARK 93021 44 $240,881 44 $250,663 OAK VIEW 93022 4 $159,875 4 $154,000 OJAI 93023 12 $218,871 22 $264,795 OAK PARK 91301 42 $288,432 22 $244,777 91304 1 $190,000 NA NA OXNARD 93030 55 $177,114 49 $198,847 93033 25 $147,540 29 $146,094 93035 27 $262,327 31 $213,133 PORT HUENEME 93041 17 $133,971 12 $143,917 SANTA PAULA 93060 24 $161,708 22 $173,136 SIMI VALLEY 91307 1 $445,000 1 $625,000 93063 51 $186,406 93 $192,523 93065 95 $190,383 105 $213,442 THOUSAND OAKS 91320 34 $248,368 27 $244,241 91360 55 $224,607 88 $255,483 91361 17 $315,933 19 $314,447 91362 54 $369,263 52 $357,087 VENTURA 93001 22 $188,357 28 $228,946 93003 39 $209,667 41 $200,134 93004 30 $239,153 57 $216,544 COUNTYWIDE 747 $226,287 822 $232,092

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Source: TRW REDI Property Data