High Hopes for Holiday Shopping : Retail: A national survey shows almost 60% of store owners expect an increase in seasonal sales.

A survey by a major accounting firm has found that almost 60% of retailers expect shoppers to spend more on holiday purchases this year, more than twice the percentage of merchants who expected spending increases at this time a year ago.

In Southern California, however, the percentage of retailers expecting increases was the same as those expecting decreases. Overall, there was a rise in the percentage of Southland retailers expecting sales increases.

These are among the findings, released Tuesday, of a national survey of 1,175 retailers conducted by Deloitte & Touche as part of its annual “Retail Holiday Outlook” studies of retailers’ and consumers’ attitudes.

The survey, taken in October, is the latest sign of a holiday season spending rebound. Recent monthly sales reports and some consumer polls have provided indications that consumers will spend more this holiday season and reverse a three-year retail tailspin.

“Although it’s too early to draw conclusions, our retailer findings show some positive signs for the holiday season,” said Irwin Cohen, national partner and co-chairman of the Trade Retail & Distribution Services Group of Deloitte & Touche. “Retailers have brought their businesses more in line with reality over the last several years, but seem to have heightened expectations for this season as compared to prior years.”

Nationally, 59.4% of the retailers said that this holiday season they expected their company to generate a sales increase over last year. Of those questioned, 24% said they expected a drop in sales. In contrast, 26% of retailers questioned last year said they expected their customers to spend more. Of those responding last year, about 55% said they expected a drop in holiday season sales.

“Retailers are more upbeat,” said Richard Giss, head of retail services for Deloitte’s Southern California operations. “Retailers think the economy is still soft, but they believe that consumers are more confident about the economy.”

That rise in optimism has reached Southern California, although it is not as strong, according to the survey. Of those polled in the area, 41.2% expected sales increases and 41.2% expected decreases during the last two months of 1992. When queried last year, 36.9% said they expected customers to spend more, but 44.8% expected a drop in spending.

A separate Deloitte poll of consumers found that 50% of respondents plan to do most of their holiday shopping at department and specialty stores, 35% at discount or mass merchandiser stores and 5% by catalogues.

Jack Kyser, economist at the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles, said the results of the retailers’ poll reflect rising expectations.

“Nationally, there is a growing sense that the worst of the recession is over,” he said. With a new Administration in the White House--an Administration that is expected to focus on jobs.