Rate of Divorces Stabilizes; AIDS May Be a Factor

SAN FRANCISCO —  A stabilization of America’s high divorce rates is occurring because of fewer marriages, older first-time brides and grooms and possibly less infidelity by people frightened of the disease AIDS, family experts say.

Current divorce figures compiled by the National Center of Health Statistics show that 1.213 million couples got divorces in 1981, a peak, and that the figures have been dropping since, with 1.159 million divorces last year.

Despite the downward rates, the total number of divorced people in the United States remains higher than ever at 13.1 million, up from 10.8 million in 1981 and from 4.3 million in 1970.

Family psychologist Judith Wallerstein said she believes that the statistics merely show a “fluctuation, not a major trend” toward fewer divorces as predicted in a recent Harris Poll.

‘Looks Like a Plateau’

“There’s been a lot of zigzagging around,” she said of the figures. “This looks like a plateau in divorce rates has occurred, not a trend downward.”

She said the highest divorce rates have always been among those who marry young, and that the median age of first marriages for women has risen from 21.1 years in 1975 to 23.3 years in 1985.

“We also see slightly fewer marriages, which tends to reduce the divorce rate, and there may be some pressure to avoid infidelity because of the fear of AIDS,” said Wallerstein, executive director of the Center for the Family in Transition in Corte Madera, Calif.

Currently, 107.9 million Americans are married, up from 95 million in 1970, but the percentage of marriages per total population has dropped exponentially from 75.3% in 1970 to a current 68.7%. The percentage of divorces since 1970 has steadily risen from 3.9% to 8.7%.

Less Prone to Cut Ties

Wallerstein said Americans may be less prone to cut the nuptial ties because of financial considerations and because they are better educated as to the realities and consequences of divorce.

“I don’t think of this (fewer divorces) as a rekindling of an interest in marriage. Americans have always had an interest in marriage,” she said, adding the majority of those who divorce eventually remarry.

Statistics show that first marriages are most likely to end in divorce in the sixth to seventh year and with the average age of men being about 32 and women 29, and that the percentage of divorce among blacks is nearly double that of the rate for whites.

The highest percentage of divorce occurs in the 10 Western states, with the lowest rates being reported in the Northeast, especially New England, according to Census Bureau figures.

Urban Rates Higher

Higher divorce rates also occur in urban rather than rural areas, although that difference is becoming less pronounced.

The reasons are not quite clear, but experts believe that a more mobile population and generally more liberal attitudes of people in the Western states contributes to the higher divorce rates of that region. New England, which has the lowest rate of divorce, is considered a more stable population with stronger traditional and religious values.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, Nevada had the highest per capita divorce rate in 1984, the latest year for which final figures are available, at 15.2 divorces per 1,000 population. New Mexico was second at 7.9 for every 1,000 people and Alaska was third at 7.7. Massachusetts had the lowest rate at 3.0 per 1,000 population.

“The West has always been on the cutting edge of new ideas and life style changes,” said Wallerstein of the divorce statistics. She said that pressures of urban life generally leads to more divorces, but that the sociological differences “are not as great as they used to be” between the cities, suburbs and small towns.

Wallerstein said divorces are most likely to occur at pressure points in marriages, such as after the first child is born, during financial struggles, when a child has a serious illness or after the children are grown and leave home.

‘Vulnerable Marriages’

“There are a lot of stresses on families that lead to divorce,” Wallerstein said. “But, it is reasonable to assume that most of these were vulnerable marriages to begin with.”

Pollster Louis Harris recently said that government figures and a national survey done of 3,001 family members, indicate that the American family is thriving. He said that Census Bureau predictions that half of all marriages will fail is “one of the most specious pieces of statistical nonsense ever perpetrated in modern times.”