Developments in Brief : Panel to Study Rash of Quake Predictions

At the request of the federal government’s top geologist, a panel will be formed to assess the widely conflicting estimates of how soon California may be rocked by disastrous earthquakes.

The review should result in a concise statement of California earthquake hazards and reduce public “confusion over various statements made by various people at various times” about the likelihood of major or great quakes, according to John Filson, vice chairman of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council.

The review will not result in specific predictions of the timing and probability of big temblors, but “at least we hope to be able to put out a definitive statement on the (range of) uncertainty,” he said. “The public deserves some kind of intelligent statement on how research in the last 10 years has improved our understanding of the active geology of California.”

Either a small group or an individual to be named by the panel will conduct the analysis, which was requested by USGS Director Dallas Peck, said Filson, who also is chief of the agency’s Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Engineering.

The analysis will begin “within the next month or so” but won’t be finished before year’s end, he said.