Rams Can Ice Bears If It’s Cold, Says Goode

From his warm Studio City home Sunday, Bud Goode will watch the Los Angeles Rams battle the Bears in Chicago. Goode will hope for Soldier Field temperatures low enough to send a harp seal begging for money to purchase a down parka. He will hope for wind strong enough to blow the triple-decker sandwich out of William (the Refrigerator) Perry’s mouth on the sideline. And he will hope for snow so heavy that eight tiny and off-course reindeer slam into the goalpost on their journey back home.

Is this guy sick, or what?

No, Goode is a computer wizard who compiles mounds of football data each week and sells the packages to several NFL teams, including the Bears, New England Patriots and Rams. But he also happens to be a Ram fan, and he says his statistics show that the Rams’ best chance at knocking off the Bears and advancing to the Super Bowl will come in weather bad enough to make a grown polar bear weep.

The reasoning, Goode said, is that decent weather will allow the Bears’ Jim McMahon to pass. If that happens, the Rams may be forced to keep pace by allowing Dieter Brock to pass. And if that happens, well, the Bears’ defense might deflect and intercept more passes than Bo Derek’s bodyguard in a singles bar.

“Bad weather, really bad weather, will wipe out the passing game for both teams,” Goode said. “That will result in a straight-up match between Eric Dickerson and Walter Payton. I take Dickerson over Walter Payton.”

Goode’s statistics show that a running game is much more valuable than a passing game. He gives one point in the actual winning margin for each running play. If the Rams run the ball 45 times and the Bears have 35 running plays, his stats say the Rams win by 10 points.

If the weather is decent--and forecasters say it will be, with temperatures in the high 30s and only moderate wind--Goode says his computer analysis makes the Bears 13-point favorites. But he said several other variables should come into play, things that escape the floppy disks.

“I think the Rams will be in the game all the way,” he said. “The Rams’ pass rush has shown a steady improvement, and the Chicago passing game has been in a sharp down-trend since the second week of the season.”

To win, he says, the Rams must run. And run. And run. If they fall behind, they cannot give up the ground attack in an effort to get the points back in a hurry. Goode said the Rams must carry out a running game plan from start to finish.

“They’ve got to run the ball 40 times against the Bears,” he said.

Why 40? Because, Goode points out, the stats show that teams ran the ball 40 or more times on 70 occasions this season. And they won an incredible 68 of those 70 games.