Suspected Russian downing of Azerbaijan passenger plane reflects Ukraine war’s growing footprint

The deadly crash this week of an Azerbaijani passenger jet — with Russian air defenses as the suspected culprit — brings into focus a little-noticed aspect of the war in Ukraine: a battle zone that extends deep into Russia.

Ukraine for months has been using domestically tooled drones to strike Russian targets hundreds of miles from the front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine, often taking aim at fuel depots and military airfields.

The Kremlin tends to play down these attacks, and has a history of offering unconvincing explanations for massive explosions that sometimes result.

On Friday, Russian authorities acknowledged that Ukrainian drones were targeting Grozny, provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, as an Azerbaijani commercial airliner with 67 people aboard was attempting to land there on Wednesday.

Russia said nothing about whether its own air defenses were engaged at the time, but aviation experts have said it is likely that a Russian surface-to-air projectile, possibly from a Pantsir missile system, sprayed the civilian plane with shrapnel, wrecking crucial flight systems.

Vagif Mamishev lays flowers at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in St. Petersburg, Russia, in memory of victims of the plane crash.

(Dmitri Lovetsky / Associated Press)

The flight, which had originated in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, crashed in Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea from Chechnya. Thirty-eight people died, while 29 survived with injuries, Azerbaijani officials said.

Azerbaijan, unlike several other ex-Soviet republics, has friendly ties with Moscow. Although it stopped short of blaming Russia outright, it has demanded an explanation. Russia repeated on Friday that a full investigation was necessary before it would comment on what caused the crash.

Here is some background on the fatal plane downing and its repercussions in the region and beyond:

What backs up the theory that Russia was responsible?

On Friday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters that early indications “would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems.” But he refused to say more, pointing to the ongoing investigation.

Russia initially claimed the crash was caused by a collision with a flock of birds, with bad weather playing a role in diverting the flight. But suspicions quickly emerged, with pro-government media in Azerbaijan quoting officials as saying a Russian missile was believed responsible. On Friday, an Azerbaijani government minister, Rashad Nabiyev, said publicly for the first time that preliminary indications were that the plane’s downing resulted from external impact from a weapon.

Survivor testimony, expert analysis and cellphone footage taken by passengers as the plane was in the final erratic moments of flight suggest that the aircraft was struck as it was descending in heavy fog. Experts said the Embraer 190’s tail section was peppered with holes that appeared to have been made from the outside, most likely by an air defense system.

Azerbaijan Airlines blamed the crash on unspecified “physical and technical interference.”

If Russia was responsible, will the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin be held accountable?

That’s unclear. Russia never accepted responsibility for the downing in 2014 of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile over an area of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russia-backed separatists. All 298 people aboard were killed. In 2022, a Dutch court convicted in absentia two Russians and a Ukrainian supporter of Russia for their roles.

Azerbaijan cooperates with Russia in many matters, including military affairs. Its investigators are taking part in the crash probe and have made clear they want answers.

Why was Ukraine hitting targets in Chechnya?

Ukraine, slowly but inexorably losing territory in the fight against invading Russian forces, has countered with drone attacks across a large area of Russia, including Moscow, the Kursk and Belgorod regions, and as far away as Kazan, in the Tatarstan region, more than 600 miles from the front lines inside Ukraine.

Almost as distant is the North Caucasus, where Chechnya is located, which has also been targeted previously by Ukraine. Troops under the command of Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov were embroiled in the war from the earliest days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, with its forces implicated in many atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.

Russia, which said Friday that an attack on the Grozny area by Ukrainian drones was underway at the time the plane was stricken, did not acknowledge any successful Ukrainian strikes. But there are a number of national guard and other military bases in the area. Ukraine does not customarily acknowledge its drone attacks inside Russia, but it said Russia was responsible for the plane’s downing.

Will foreign airlines curtail flights into Russia?

That is already happening, and marks a deepening of Russian isolation since the outbreak of the war. The Israeli airline El Al said it would suspend flights to Moscow in the wake of the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines, operator of the doomed flight, said it was halting flights to Grozny and nine other Russian cities. Kazakhstan’s flagship airline, Qazaq Air, suspended service on a major route, to the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.

What has the Biden administration said in the past about Ukrainian strikes inside Russia?

President Biden, now in his final weeks in office, recently allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied missiles to strike deeper into Russia, a go-ahead that President-elect Donald Trump has termed “stupid” and may rescind.

Such strikes, though, are separate from Ukraine’s drone offensive, which is one of relatively few means readily available to Ukraine for keeping Moscow off balance. Russian missiles have been pummeling Ukrainian cities, including a massive attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and other cities on Christmas Day.