NCAA tournament bracket picks: J. Brady McCollough’s prediction for every game

While UCLA and USC will fall short of New Orleans, there will be a distinct Western flavor in the Big Easy with Gonzaga and Arizona. And how about a Pac-12 champion as national champion for the first time in 25 years?

Check out national college writer J. Brady McCollough‘s NCAA tournament picks.

All games listed below will be streamed live on March Madness Live and all times are Pacific.

Notre Dame’s Prentiss Hubb controls the ball during a game against Virginia Tech on March 10.

(John Minchillo / Associated Press)

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
Tuesday, 3:40 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Texas Southern by 3.5.
Pick: Texas Southern is making its sixth NCAA tournament appearance since 2014, so it knows the drill. That experience will pay a dividend.
Texas Southern 60, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 57

No. 12 Indiana vs. No. 12 Wyoming
Tuesday, 6:10 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Indiana by 3.5.
Pick: The Hoosiers found an extra gear in the Big Ten tournament and their defensive intensity should keep the Cowboys at bay.
Indiana 73, Wyoming 64

No. 16 Wright State vs. No. 16 Bryant
Wednesday, 3:40 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Wright State by 1.5.
Pick: Bryant senior Peter Kiss averaged 25.1 points this season and has NCAA tournament darling written all over him.
Bryant 75, Wright State 70

No. 11 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Notre Dame
Wednesday, 6:10 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Notre Dame by 1.
Pick: Rutgers plays at the level of its opponent, for better or worse. The Scarlet Knights will have just enough grit to move past untested Notre Dame.
Rutgers 63, Notre Dame 59

Gonzaga’s Rasir Bolton scores against Saint Mary’s during the West Coast Conference tournament on March 8.

(John Locher / Associated Press)

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Georgia State
Thursday, 1:15 p.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Gonzaga by 23.5
Pick: The Bulldogs have way too much offensive skill and explosiveness to lose to a No. 16 seed.
Gonzaga 96, Georgia State 65

No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Memphis
Thursday, 10:45 a.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Memphis by 1.5.
Pick: The Tigers started slowly under the weight of expectations but finally found themselves just in time. Their size and length will hound Boise State.
Memphis 64, Boise State 61

No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 New Mexico State
Thursday, 3:50 p.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Connecticut by 6.5.
Pick: The Huskies are good on both ends of the floor and boast a collection of guards who can go get a bucket. They’re an unlikely 12-over-5 victim.
Connecticut 70, New Mexico State 65

No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont
Thursday, 6:20 p.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Arkansas by 5.
Pick: The Razorbacks play fast and furious, but they can get out of control pretty quickly too. Vermont, an efficiency ratings darling, will notch one of the first big upsets of the tournament.
Vermont 74, Arkansas 72

No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers
Friday, 1:15 p.m.
TV: TNT
Line: N/A
Pick: Alabama is one of the most hit-or-miss teams in the bracket. The Crimson Tide beat Gonzaga and Baylor but have some ugly losses too. They’ll bring their best here.
Alabama 68, Rutgers 62

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Montana State
Friday, 10:45 a.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Texas Tech by 16.5.
Pick: The Red Raiders are the best defensive efficiency team in the country, and that defense will travel well to San Diego.
Texas Tech 71, Montana State 53

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Davidson
Friday, 6:40 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Michigan State by 2.
Pick: Foster Loyer, the former Spartan, will lead his new, hot-shooting Davidson team over Michigan State in one of the best first-round games.
Davidson 64, Michigan State 59

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Cal State Fullerton
Friday, 4:10 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Duke by 17.5.
Pick: The Coach K retirement tour has hit some bumps of late, losing in his home finale to North Carolina and in the ACC tournament final. But the Blue Devils won’t send him out in true embarrassment.
Duke 85, Cal State Fullerton 65

Duke’s Trevor Keels claps during a win over Miami in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament on March 11.

(John Minchillo / Associated Press)

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Memphis
Saturday
Pick: The talented Tigers may present the toughest test for Gonzaga in the West bracket. Penny Hardaway’s team will be playing free as a clear underdog, but the Bulldogs will stay calm through any storms.
Gonzaga 84, Memphis 72

No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 13 Vermont
Saturday
Pick: The Catamounts won’t sneak up on the Huskies like they did Arkansas. Connecticut will return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014.
Connecticut 59, Vermont 56

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Alabama
Sunday
Pick: This matchup would be one of the best of the weekend if it comes to fruition (it will). Alabama has an explosive offense and loves to push the pace, while Texas Tech lives for the grind. Defense wins — just barely.
Texas Tech 62, Alabama 61

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 10 Davidson
Sunday
Pick: Two little North Carolina private schools square off with a Sweet 16 spot up for grabs. The one with five national championships will prevail and keep Coach K’s retirement tour going one more week.
Duke 80, Davidson 70

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 5 Connecticut
Thursday, March 24, San Francisco
Pick: The Bulldogs will overwhelm the Huskies from start to finish and move one step closer to a return trip to the Final Four.
Gonzaga 83, Connecticut 61

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Thursday, March 24, San Francisco
Pick: The Red Raiders’ veteran makeup and defensive intensity will slow and frustrate Duke, sending Coach K unceremoniously into retirement.
Texas Tech 65, Duke 62

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Saturday, March 26, San Francisco
Pick: From the moment Gonzaga center Drew Timme decided to return to school, the Zags have been focused on getting back to the sport’s biggest stage. Not even Texas Tech’s defense will stop them.
Gonzaga 74, Texas Tech 66

Baylor guard James Akinjo (11) drives past Oklahoma guard Jordan Goldwire during a game on March 10.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
Thursday, 11 a.m.
TV: TBS
Line: Baylor by 21.5.
Pick: The Bears begin the defense of their national championship with an easy tune-up.
Baylor 87, Norfolk State 68

No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Marquette
Thursday, 1:30 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: North Carolina by 2.5.
Pick: North Carolina was blown out by Wisconsin in last year’s NCAA tournament opener. The Tar Heels won’t be so easy to move for Marquette.
North Carolina 73, Marquette 66

No. 5 St. Mary’s vs. No. 12 Indiana
Thursday, 4:20 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: N/A
Pick: The Hoosiers will come in having won three of four, but the Gaels’ tough defense will make it too hard for Indiana’s offense to find its rhythm.
St. Mary’s 64, Indiana 60

No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Akron
Thursday, 6:50 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: UCLA by 14.
Pick: Akron plays at an extremely slow pace, which is a good formula for an upset. But UCLA of all teams will not be fazed by that, as the Bruins thrive playing in their half-court sets.
UCLA 74, Akron 56

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech
Friday, 1:30 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: Texas by 1.
Pick: The Longhorns and Hokies look as if they could stage one of the most competitive games of the first round. Can Virginia Tech keep its mojo going? It’s a lot to ask.
Texas 59, Virginia Tech 57

No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Yale
Friday, 11 a.m.
TV: TBS
Line: Purdue by 16.
Pick: The Boilermakers, who lost in the first round to North Texas last year, are too well-built this time around to lose.
Purdue 78, Yale 64

No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco
Thursday, 6:40 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Murray State by 1.5.
Pick: In a matchup of good mid-major teams that normally would be Cinderella stories, the Dons’ defense will be the difference.
San Francisco 65, Murray State 63

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s
Thursday, 4:10 p.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Kentucky by 17.
Pick: The Wildcats’ dominant big man, Oscar Tshiebwe, will overpower St. Peter’s.
Kentucky 83, St. Peter’s 57

Purdue center Zach Edey shoots over Iowa forward Filip Rebraca during the Boilermakers’ loss in the Big 10 championship game on March 13.

(Michael Conroy / Associated Press)

No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 8 North Carolina
Saturday
Pick: Can the Tar Heels put together back-to-back good performances? If so, they have the ability to put a scare into Baylor. But that’s all it will be.
Baylor 75, North Carolina 71

No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 5 St. Mary’s
Saturday
Pick: Mentally, the Bruins’ greatest challenge will be fighting off the feeling that they should win against a team from the West Coast Conference. Because the Gaels could totally spoil UCLA’s season.
UCLA 65, St. Mary’s 59

No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 6 Texas
Sunday
Pick: When Purdue is flowing offensively, it’s a beautiful thing to watch. But Chris Beard teams have a way of making their opponents win ugly.
Texas 70, Purdue 67

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 10 San Francisco
Saturday
Pick: If the Wildcats have one of their poor outside-shooting days, this one will have the Bluegrass State in a tizzy. But they’ll make just enough threes to survive.
Kentucky 66, San Francisco 61

No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 4 UCLA
Friday, March 25, Philadelphia
Pick: The Bruins will take down the defending national champions thanks to big-time performances from stars Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
UCLA 72, Baylor 66

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 6 Texas
Friday, March 25, Philadelphia
Pick: These teams rebuilt quickly last offseason with a bunch of transfers. The best of them, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, will assert himself inside.
Kentucky 67, Texas 58

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 4 UCLA
Sunday, March 27, Philadelphia
Pick: It’s a blue-blood ratings bonanza. The Bruins will need everything they’ve got from Myles Johnson against Tshiebwe to advance. A Kellan Grady three at the buzzer breaks UCLA’s heart.
Kentucky 66, UCLA 64

Seton Hall’s Jared Rhoden passes against Georgetown during Big East tournament game on March 9.

(Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Bryant
Friday, 4:27 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: N/A
Pick: As much as America will want Bryant star Peter Kiss to make the Wildcats the second No. 1 to fall to a No. 16, Arizona is just too good for that.
Arizona 93, Bryant 64

No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Texas Christian
Friday, 6:57 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Seton Hall by 1.
Pick: In the last game of the first round, look for TCU to frustrate Seton Hall with a slow tempo and strong defense.
TCU 65, Seton Hall 58

No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 Alabama Birmingham
Friday, 6:20 p.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Houston by 8.5.
Pick: The Cougars bring back plenty of experience from a Final Four team and won’t comply with the 12-over-5 upset.
Houston 66, UAB 54

No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Chattanooga
Friday, 3:50 p.m.
TV: TNT
Line: Illinois by 7.
Pick: The Fighting Illini are stacked with veterans who came back to school wanting to erase the memory of last year’s second-round loss.
Illinois 74, Chattanooga 61

No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan
Thursday, 9:15 a.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Michigan by 2.
Pick: The Wolverines snuck into the field and were rewarded with a first-round game in Indianapolis. Big man Hunter Dickinson will be too much for the Rams.
Michigan 68, Colorado State 60

No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Longwood
Thursday, 11:45 a.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Tennessee by 17.
Pick: The Volunteers very easily could have been a 2 seed and will be motivated to prove they’ve been undervalued.
Tennessee 79, Longwood 56

No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago
Friday, 9:15 a.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Loyola Chicago by 1.5.
Pick: The Buckeyes have been struggling of late, losing their last two games to Michigan and Penn State. Sister Jean and Loyola Chicago will show no mercy.
Loyola Chicago 71, Ohio State 67

No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Delaware
Friday, 11:45 a.m.
TV: CBS
Line: Villanova by 11.5.
Pick: The savvy Wildcats long ago shed their reputation as March chokers and won’t revisit that label.
Villanova 82, Delaware 65

Villanova players celebrate after defeating Creighton in the Big East tournament final on March 12.

(Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 Texas Christian
Sunday
Pick: TCU will try to slow the game and keep it in the half court, but the Horned Frogs simply don’t have the scorers to pull this off.
Arizona 77, TCU 55

No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 5 Houston
Sunday
Pick: The Fighting Illini didn’t get to the Sweet 16 last year as a No. 1 seed, and they’ll erase some of that disappointment with a close win here.
Illinois 65, Houston 63

No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Michigan
Saturday
Pick: The Wolverines haven’t won two straight games in more than a month. It’s officially a trend, and Tennessee won’t make it easy to reverse.
Tennessee 72, Michigan 67

No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago
Sunday
Pick: Did Porter Moser take some of Loyola’s magic with him to Oklahoma? Or is it all with Sister Jean? Villanova is too experienced for it to matter.
Villanova 70, Loyola-Chicago 63

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Illinois
Thursday, March 24, San Antonio
Pick: The Wildcats have the big bodies to throw at Kofi Cockburn, and their guards have even more giddy-up than the Fighting Illini.
Arizona 73, Illinois 62

No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 3 Tennessee
Thursday, March 24, San Antonio
Pick: Rick Barnes over Jay Wright in the NCAA tournament? Call it just a feeling.
Tennessee 69, Villanova 65

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 Tennessee
Saturday, March 26, San Antonio
Pick: The Volunteers handed the Wildcats their first loss in December, 77-73. In the rematch, Arizona shows its season-long growth to advance to its first Final Four since 2001.
Arizona 68, Tennessee 66

Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji celebrates during a Big 12 Conference tournament semifinal win over Texas Christian on March 11.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
Thursday, 6:57 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: N/A
Pick: The Jayhawks will shoot the lights out from deep, putting this one away in the first half.
Kansas 92, Texas Southern 61

No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton
Thursday, 4:27 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: San Diego State by 2.5.
Pick: The Aztecs and Blue Jays both lost in their conference tournament finals. In a battle of great defenses, San Diego State gets one more stop.
San Diego State 56, Creighton 55

No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond
Thursday, 12:10 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Iowa by 10.5
Pick: The Hawkeyes and Spiders couldn’t be hotter entering this one after winning their league tournaments. Only one will stay hot, though.
Iowa 81, Richmond 72

No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
Thursday, 9:40 a.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Providence by 2.5.
Pick: It’s wild to see a No. 4 seed only a slight favorite against a 13, so the Jackrabbits already have the Friars’ attention. Still, Vegas must know something.
South Dakota State 71, Providence 68

No. 6 Louisiana State vs. No. 11 Iowa State
Friday, 4:20 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: LSU by 4.
Pick: The Tigers will be without their coach, Will Wade, who was fired during the weekend because of NCAA infractions allegations, but that should give them motivation.
LSU 66, Iowa State 59

No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate
Friday, 6:50 p.m.
TV: TBS
Line: Wisconsin by 8.
Pick: Colgate was a popular upset pick last year but couldn’t beat Arkansas. Wisconsin is susceptible, but Johnny Davis won’t let it happen.
Wisconsin 72, Colgate 65

No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 Miami
Friday, 12:10 p.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: USC by 1.5.
Pick: The Trojans’ team defense will put the clamps on Miami’s score-happy guards to put USC into the round of 32.
USC 69, Miami 63

No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State
Friday, 9:40 a.m.
TV: TruTV
Line: Auburn by 17.
Pick: Can USC get some help from Jacksonville State? That is probably going to be too much to ask.
Auburn 86, Jacksonville State 65

Auburn guard Allen Flanigan (22) drives around Texas A&M guard Wade Taylor IV during a Southeastern Conference tournament game on March 11.

(Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 San Diego State
Saturday
Pick: The Jayhawks won’t be fazed by the Aztecs’ trademark defensive intensity. Kansas has too many offensive weapons to stay down for long.
Kansas 71, San Diego State 57

No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
Saturday
Pick: The Hawkeyes’ Keegan Murray can go shot for shot with anyone for 40 minutes. Even the fast-moving Jackrabbits will have trouble keeping up.
Iowa 87, South Dakota State 77

No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Louisiana State
Sunday
Pick: The Tigers have the athletes to slow Johnny Davis, but Wisconsin’s home crowd in Milwaukee will give the Badgers an extra boost.
Wisconsin 65, LSU 62

No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 7 USC
Sunday
Pick: The Trojans will need to play their best game of the year to get past a deep and talented Auburn squad. The Tigers will get separation late.
Auburn 68, USC 60

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Iowa
Friday, March 25, Chicago
Pick: This should be the most entertaining game of the Sweet 16, and the arena should be full of fans from each side. Keegan Murray wins a duel with Ochai Agbaji.
Iowa 76, Kansas 73

No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
Friday, March 25, Chicago
Pick: The Badgers’ Milwaukee-Chicago draw feels too good to be true. Auburn’s overall talent dwarfs Wisconsin’s, and the Tigers will thrive amid the boos.
Auburn 71, Wisconsin 64

No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 5 Iowa
Sunday, March 27, Chicago
Pick: To get to this point, the Hawkeyes will have won 15 of 17. The fun will stop sometime, right? Just not in Chicago. Maybe in New Orleans?
Iowa 77, Auburn 75

Kentucky forward Oscar Tshiebwe (34) and guard TyTy Washington Jr. (3) celebrate after a play against Florida on March 5.

(Matt Stamey / Associated Press)

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 Kentucky
Saturday, April 2, New Orleans
Pick: A matchup defined by contrasting styles of big men — Kentucky’s bruising Tshiebwe against Gonzaga’s finesse duo of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren — will go to the Wildcats, who will relish the underdog role.
Kentucky 82, Gonzaga 80

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 5 Iowa
Saturday, April 2, New Orleans
Pick: The Wildcats made the hire of the year by plucking Tommy Lloyd from Gonzaga, rejuvenating the program which had fallen off under Sean Miller. Arizona’s latest challenge? Take down the hottest team in the country.
Arizona 88, Iowa 81

Arizona’s Dalen Terry celebrates while cutting a piece of the net after the Wildcats’ win over UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament on March 12.

(John Locher / Associated Press)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Kentucky
Monday, April 4, New Orleans
Pick: In a rematch of the 1997 national championship game — remember the “Simon says championship!� call from Jim Nantz? — Arizona will crush Kentucky’s hearts for a second time 25 years later and end the Pac-12’s national title drought.
Arizona 74, Kentucky 70