Racing! Rob Henie is back with another handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get a very rough schedule of Bolt D’Oro’s future races.

Found out a little more about Mick Ruis moving his 3-year-old star colt Bolt d’Oro and Union Strike from his barn to that of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

“I don’t want to cheat Bolt d’Oro,” Ruis told Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Bolt d’Oro is going to be racing again on the East Coast. I have 1,200 employees in three companies. I couldn’t be there full time. It’s hard to be an East Coast/West Coast operation.”

Ruis went on to say that Bolt would race at least two more times before going to stud. He says his last race, possibly, would be the Pegasus in January at Gulfstream. Ruis also said if he’s running well he wouldn’t mind seeing him go a full season as 4-year-old.

Ruis is only half owner of the breeding rights, along with Spendthrift Farm, so it’s not his decision after the Pegasus.

You can read Center’s story by just clicking here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the 10^th race Saturday at Del Mar. Rob, take it away.

“A Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. When the better trainers show up at Del Mar in July or August, running long, the horses are almost always well meant. That’s likely the case with AMUSE (#7) for Richard Mandella, with his ‘go to jock’ in Flavien Prat. Notice the work pattern? On July 1st and 6th, drills of 1:12.4 and 1:13.1, followed by 1:16 and :49 works. This is a great sign, telling us they needed nothing more from her while awaiting this first race, simply allowing time on the track, facing a pretty mediocre MSW group, not always the case at this time of the year, but she’ll look to take advantage. TEN COUNT OUT (#4) ran only twice in 2017, obviously with some issues, but now strings races together for the first time ever, telling us good health is creeping into the picture, now given more ground, and not missing a beat with regard to her workout schedule. She’s gonna improve, and with some value attached, the risk-reward is decent.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“WCHR Maiden Power Rating: 2.50 (indicative of an overall mediocre group)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 7-4-8-1

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 6

“Positive Notes:

“1 Dearborn - Sent west, now given more ground, Drayden Van Dyke up for Tom Proctor, well meant in this second start.

“8 Camino Song - Getting healthy, now given this more methodical distance by ‘super feed’ trainer Phil D’Amato, which should suit her nicely.

“Negative Notes:

“6 Resolu - Poor placement, plain and simple.

“TOP PICK: AMUSE (#7 7-2 Prat)

“SECOND CHOICE: TEN COUNT OUT (#4 8-1 Gutierrez)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Fantasy doubles

In Friday’s newsletter, I called upon you readers to send suggestion for what doubles you would like to see if there was no regulation. Here’s what I said:

“You could, say, hook up a Grade 1 at Del Mar with such things as the winner of the World Series, the range of games the Padres will win (or lose), how many seats in the House of Representatives the majority party will have after the midterms. It can be serious or it can be fun.

“So, here’s your challenge, send me your idea of what kind of double you would like to see. First, don’t just hit reply because I won’t see it before Labor Day. Use the email [email protected].

“You need to put daily double in the subject field (even though it’s not really daily). And, include your real name in the message, not what you think is your clever email handle.”

Anyway, hoping to put in the Monday newsletter if I get enough replies.

Del Mar review

Friday’s feature at Del Mar, a minor $75,000 stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf, was a classic example of pace besting class. The Osunitas Stakes was won by Fahan Mura under a masterful ride by Edwin Maldonado.

She broke from the far outside, the 12, on the infield turf chute, and angled her way quickly to the rail as the horses moved to main turf course. She slowed down the next quarter and ambled her way around the track and through the stretch to win by 1 ¾ lengths.

The favored Paradise Woods, winner of two Grade 1s, had a nice trip in second but never fired on the far turn or in the stretch to finish sixth. It was her first turf race.

Fahan Mura paid $15.40, $9.20 and $8.20 for trainer Vladimir Cerin. Longshot Achira was second and Midnight Crossing was third.

Del Mar preview

Real good 10-race card at Del Mar on Saturday with two graded stakes, three allowance races and three maiden (not claiming) races. The field sizes remain the best in California.

The more interesting of the two stakes is the Grade 2 $200,000 San Diego Handicap. This is traditionally a prep for the Pacific Classic at 1 1/16 miles. Accelerate won the race last year and California Chrome the year before.

Accelerate is back and is most assuredly the best horse currently running in the country. Now, there are some legit competitors for that title, but they aren’t running right now. (Can you say Justify and West Coast?)

He has won three of his last four including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Now that he’s got that treasured Grade 1 win, actually two now, I’m hoping this isn’t his last year running. But he is 5-years-old. You can rest assured that the personable trainer-owner combination of John Sadler and Kosta (and Pete) Hronis will make the best decision for the horse. He’s the 8-5 morning-line favorite. It’s an eight-horse field with Sharp Samurai and Prince of Arabia already scratching.

Dr. Dorr, at 5-1, is the second choice. He was second to Accelerate in the Gold Cup and followed that up with a disappointing ninth in the Suburban at Belmont, but the shorter distance should help. Post time is around 5 p.m.

The other stakes is the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. In short, it’s a wide-open race with the favorite, Ms Bad Behavior at 9-2, Miss Sienna at 5-1 and four horses at 6-1.

Ms Bad Behavior has won two of her last four races. Miss Sienna is making only her second U.S. start after finishing fourth in the Honeymoon Stakes. Post time is around 5:30 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 8, 7, 10, 9, 12 (2 also eligible), 8, 13, 10 (1 AE), 11.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:10 Parx: $100,000 Crowd Pleaser Stakes, Penn-bred 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Sweet Bye and Bye (2-1)

12:25 Finger Lakes: $150,000 New York Derby, NY-bred 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Analyze the Odds (1-1)

1:04 Parx: $100,000 Marshall Jenney Stakes, Penn-bred 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: the Critical Way (6-5)

1:47 Woodbine: Grade 3 $125,000 Ontario Colleen Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Got Stormy (7-5)

2:40 Saratoga: Grade 3 $150,000 Sanford Stakes, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Sombeyay (2-1)

3:18 Saratoga: Grade 1 $500,000 Diana Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Sistercharlie (9-5)

5:00 Del Mar: Grade 2 $200,000 San Diego Handicap, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Accelerate (8-5)

5:30 Del Mar: Grade 2 $200,000 San Clemente Stakes, fillies, 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Ms Bad Behavior (9-2)

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 2 Ms. Bad Behavior (9-2)

Comebacker from the Richard Baltas stable has been freshened 3 1/2 months since a fine runner-up try in the Providencia at Santa Anita. A mile seems like her best distance and she might be more effective with a target in front of her, so look for Kent Desormeaux to tuck in from her inside post and be in a great spot turning for home.

Friday’s result: Pulpit Rider never fired from far back and finished fifth.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 4 A Soaring Eagle (3-1)

In her two drills prior to troubled sixth-place debut, this filly displayed a long stride that is conducive to distances beyond 300 yards. She gets an extra 30 yards tonight after rugged debut in which she veered in to get pinballed at the start while dropping well back early. She was loaded with energy past the wire and is only one of three entrants who have race experience. Tab for big improvement.

Final thought

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at [email protected] or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

AVANTI BELLO stalked off the rail, bid three deep into the second turn, battled outside a rival leaving that turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away then battled outside thee runner-up under urging in the final furlong and held gamely. POINT PIPER angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, went around a rival on the second turn and into the stretch, bid inside past midstretch and continued gamely to just miss. GROUND RULES settled outside a rival then off the rail, found the inside leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch, split horses a sixteenth out and gained the show. MUCHOS BESOS angled in and dueled inside, stalked leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch and weakened. EXCITATIONS dueled outside a rival then between foes into the second turn, angled in on a short lead leaving that turn and weakened in the final furlong. MONSAJEM PERVADE came off the rail into the first turn, chased just off the inside then outside a rival leaving the second turn and had little left for the drive.

PRINCESS KENDRA stalked outside then four wide into the turn, advanced three deep, bid outside the pacesetter to gain the lead into the stretch, kicked clear under urging then held under steady handling and a hold late. TODOS SANTOS chased outside, went three deep on the turn and five wide into the stretch and finished well. ADIOS CALI stalked a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn, steadied off heels past the quarter pole, came out into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. DRAGON FLOWER settled inside then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, came out on the turn and five wide into the stretch and was edged for third. FRUITY (IRE) angled in and settled a bit off the rail, came out on the turn and four wide into the stretch and improved position. LUCKY STUDENT sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail, dueled into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. TANGLED UP IN JU stalked outside a rival then between foes midway on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and also weakened. CORONADO COOL close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail, angled in leaving the turn and weakened inside in the drive. PROPEPPY between horses early, settled inside, went around a rival in deep stretch and did not rally. SOUGHT MORE PEP angled in on the backstretch, saved ground off the pace, continued inside in the stretch and weakened. RCATCANSCAT stalked the pace outside, was in tight past the three eighths pole, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. BALLERINA HEADLINE chased outside a rival on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and also weakened.

OPERANDI had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away on the turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and held gamely under urging. HELEN'S TIGER angled in and stalked inside, continued along the rail in the stretch and finished well. LACEY'S RAINBOW chased outside a rival then inside leaving the backstretch and on the turn, swung out three deep into the stretch and also finished with interest. SILKY SLEW dueled between horses then stalked just off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. SILVERSPUN PICKUP angled in and stalked outside a rival on the backstretch and turn and lacked the needed rally. BOLD AT NIGHT chased outside then three wide on the turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. MARILYN'S SMILE broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then inside, saved ground on the turn and into the stretch and lacked the necessary response in the drive. CIAO LUNA saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. PARTY HOSTESS dueled three deep between horses then stalked outside a rival leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened. MAYCEE JO broke slowly and steadied when bumped by the winner, drifted out on the turn, came five wide into the stretch and was not a threat. CIOPPINO PASADINO pressed the pace five wide, stalked leaving the turn, came five wide into the stretch and gave way. DEE WAY TO GO dueled four wide between horses, stalked between foes leaving the turn and had little left for the drive. HAND TIMED.

COLORMEMONEY stalked outside, bid four wide on the turn, took the lead into the stretch and drew clear under urging. TWISTED ROAD saved ground stalking the pace, steadied in tight off heels into the stretch, split horses in midstretch and gained the place. CHATTERMAN chased outside then off the rail on the turn and four wide into the stretch and bested the others. BLAZE OF GLORY stalked the pace between horses then off the rail on the turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. CATCH FIRE broke a bit slowly, settled inside then just off the rail leaving the backstretch, went outside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. JOHNNY STRONG chased between horses, angled in on the turn, came out in upper stretch and also lacked the necessary late kick. ELEAZAR WARRIOR dueled three deep, took a short lead between foes on the turn, fought back off the rail into the stretch and weakened. IRON CURTAIN had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn, dropped back into the stretch and weakened. JOHNNY RAY chased outside then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. HE'S OUT TO SEA broke slowly and steadied, dropped back a bit off the rail to the stretch and was not a threat. WILD WILD KINGDOM dueled between horses, fell back leaving the turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

STREETWITHNONAME stalked outside then bid between horses on the backstretch and second turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away under urging and held gamely. LUMINOSO saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and finished well to just miss. PACIFIC STRIKE stalked the pace inside to the stretch then split rivals late with a game try. SAPPHO (IRE) bobbled after the start, pulled between horses stalking the pace to the stretch, bid between rivals in deep stretch and was edged for third. PULPIT RIDER chased between rivals, came three deep into the stretch and was outfinished. MOVIE MOMENT settled between horses then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MYBLUEBELL (FR) four wide leaving the chute, stalked three deep then bid three wide on the backstretch and three wide between foes on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MONGOLIAN WINDOW broke a bit slowly, pulled and steadied leaving the chute and again nearing the first turn, saved ground off the pace to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. NAVAJO DREAMER (IRE) sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, dueled on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. TINABUD stalked between horses then outside, bid four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. NONNA GIANNA (IRE) was in a good position stalking the pace four wide then outside on the backstretch, continued four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and also weakened.

OLIVER broke a bit awkwardly, stalked early then pressed the pace four wide, took the lead in upper stretch and won clear under left handed urging. TWISTED PLOT had good early speed and dueled three deep between foes, put a head in front leaving the turn, fought back into the stretch and held second. TEACHER'S TREASURE dueled between horses, also fought back on the turn and held the show. KID KOIL went up inside to vie for command, battled along the rail on the turn and weakened in the final furlong. CALDER VALE stalked four wide then outside on the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TAKEO SQUARED chased between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn, came out some in the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. HEY SAL broke a bit slowly, settled inside, came out leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch and did not rally. SMOKEY PIRATE saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. CONCORD JET brushed the side of the gate in a bit of a slow start, pulled between foes stalking the pace, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. OFFSHORE AFFAIR broke inward and slowly, settled outside a rival chasing the pace then a bit off the rail leaving the second turn and lacked a response in the drive.

FAHAN MURA sped to the early lead, crossed to the inside and set all the pace along the rail and held on gamely under urging. ACHIRA pulled between horses then chased a bit off the rail, continued inside leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch, came a bit off the rail in deep stretch and held second. MIDNIGHT CROSSING (IRE) four wide leaving the chute and three deep into the first turn, angled in and chased inside, came out in the stretch and edged rivals late for the show. COMPELLED angled in and chased inside, went outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and was edged for third. FIZZY FRIDAY (GB) between horses early, saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor share. PARADISE WOODS stalked inside, came out into the stretch, was between horses in midstretch and weakened some in the final furlong. LYNNE'S LEGACY angled in early and saved ground off the pace, continued inside on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. EVO CAMPO (IRE) chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and did not rally. PANTSONFIRE (IRE) saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and also lacked a rally. AMBOSELI settled a bit off the inside then outside a rival on the backstretch, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was not a threat.

BABY FRANKIE had speed between horses then stalked inside, bid along the rail in the stretch, took the led past the eighth pole and inched away late under urging. TWO FIFTY COUP broke in a bit, went up inside to duel for the lead, inched away on the turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, battled outside the winner, could not match that one late but was clearly second best. SAMURAI JACK pressed the pace three deep then stalked outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and bested the others. LUCKY GENERAL chased outside then four wide on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. PALLADIUM settled outside then chased alongside a rival, continued between horses on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. ASALTANTE dueled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail on the turn and also weakened. STONE GROOVE broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, came out some in the stretch and did not rally. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE bumped between horses at the break, chased outside then off the rail, continued between foes on the turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened. JUST ISN'T RIGHT broke out and bumped a rival in a slow start, settled a bit off the rail, came out in the stretch and was not a threat. DON RAMON stalked a bit off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn and weakened in the drive.