Racing! Learn about handicapping from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we applaud Los Alamitos for doing the right thing, but should it have been done sooner?

Los Alamitos canceled the last six races of Friday’s card because of extreme heat. It was done after the jockeys thought it was unsafe to race. But the guess here is that it was no more unsafe after the second race than it was before the first race. And, no, I’m not saying they should have run the entire card, the exact opposite.

“It has always been my policy that if the jockeys don’t feel it is safe to ride then we don’t race,” said Jack Liebau, the VP of the Los Alamitos Racing Assn. Absolutely the right thing to say.

But let’s think about this. On Friday the heat index was well in excess of 100 degrees. A severe heat warning remains in effect until Saturday night. So, what will Los Alamitos do on a stakes-day Saturday? Tough decision. Is it up to the jockeys to decide, or the trainers to scratch their horses on a rather thin-card day, or is it up to the track?

We’re somewhat confident the right decision will be made. But please make the decision early. It’s no surprise it’s going to be hot.

Our handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Since Rob doesn’t do a card for Los Alamitos, he has graciously shared a lesson from the fifth race at Belmont. All yours, Rob.

“This is an allowance race at a mile on the main track. Here’s a race featuring multiple 3-year-olds facing older, and this is about that time of the year when a good and/or improving 3-year-old, can really make their mark regardless of the placement. Both selections for us here are 3. Top selection is SPLIT VERDICT (#4). He immediately jumped up with a nice win on March 25th when going a mile, and it was less than a month later, that he was entered in the Federico Tesio at Pimlico with a $125,000 purse attached, and though bypassing the race, we like the decision, not missing a beat with regard to his work pattern, telling us they were simply taking a different approach, which we always like. As we remind our ECHR-WCHR members, patience and a strategy are often rewarded in this sport, and we see that here with this one. That debut win also said a lot about him we believe, really digging in gamely, racing in between runners from the ⅜ pole, not only winning the battle, but also winning the war with wonderful action and a hard-trying spirit, the type of effort we love. Have to believe he’ll show himself well here. FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN (#7) is 20-1 on the morning line which is too high. He comes off a maiden win at Pimlico, and despite facing much better runners Saturday, we have to believe he’s going in the right direction. Consider, his maiden win came while goofing around down the lane, switching to his wrong lead passing the ⅛ pole, looking around, basically telling us he’s talented with a ton of room to move forward, which is what we sense he’s been doing judging by the confident placement, and especially this work tab, as this is a very fast set of drills from Nevin, not usually working ‘em this quickly, a good sign for us. The presence of Castellano is also a positive sign.

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-7-9

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“9 Exulting - Doesn’t string races together often, which is precisely why Kiaran needs good efforts when he does get this one to an afternoon race. Alvarado is also riding well at the moment.

“Negative Notes:

“3 Harangue - Those Oaklawn races do not translate well against this particular group.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“7 Fallinginloveagain - Morning Line 20-1 / WCHR Line 8-1

“TOP PICK: SPLIT VERDICT (#4 8-1 Franco)

“SECOND CHOICE: FALLINGINLOVEAGAIN (#7 20-1 Castellano)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

More on Belmont

I know we are Southern California newsletter but Saturday’s card at Belmont is really a good one. You can see below all the big stakes races. There are three races that I think are very interesting.

The Dwyer Stakes (It’s not a misspelled version of a race named for former Times horse racing writer/columnist and sports editor Bill Dwyre, but a totally different Dwyer) has three Kentucky Derby losers in it. The heavy action should be on Mendelssohn, who everyone thought could break the curse of Dubai shippers. After winning the Dubai Derby by more than 20 lengths everyone thought he was the real deal at Churchill Downs. He finished last.

Also in the race are Firenze Fire, who finished 11^th, and Noble Indy, who was 17^th.

There is also the Suburban, which will have Tapwrit, last year’s winner of the Belmont Stakes. Not one of last year’s Triple Crown race winners has won a race since. How crazy is that? Also in that race will be a couple of Bob Baffert horses, Dr. Dorr and veteran campaigner Hoppertunity.

Finally, I’m looking forward to the Belmont Derby Invitational, which is a turf race. In that one is Derby fifth-place finisher My Boy Jack. I have to admit a fondness for trainer Keith Desormeaux. His brutal honesty is refreshing in a sport, if not all sports, that will come up with excuses rather than say it like it is.

Desormeaux spoke with the NYRA press office by phone.

“It seemed like a great spot to make a return,” Keith said. "I think it's easier in my own mind to ship cross country and run on the turf instead of the dirt. He's more familiar with that than the sandy surface at Belmont. So, I just thought it was a good spot. I know he's going to love the mile and a quarter and the purse is not too bad.

“You would think with his style, he could be more effective on turf. I have confidence in him. That horse is easy to have confidence in because he brings an ‘A’ race every time. He's just a very nice horse. We're not saying that we're exclusive to the turf now. This is just a great race to set us up for whatever we've got after.”

Any way you look at it, Belmont is the place to watch on Saturday.

Los Alamitos thoroughbred preview

If the card is run, the highlight of Saturday’s really small-field nine-race card is the Grade 2 $200,000 Great Lady M Stakes, for fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs. Lest you forget, Great Lady M won 14 of 58 races and two stakes at Los Alamitos. She won the 1978 Mission Viejo Stakes, where no doubt every horse’s look was mandated by HOA laws. And, she won the Orange Coast Handicap in 1979.

In Saturday’s five-horse field, it’s a pretty good matchup. The favorite is Marley’s Freedom, at 4-5. She has won her last two races, including the Grade 3 Desert Stormer Stakes at Santa Anita. She is 4-for-10 lifetime.

Her top competition should come from Skye Diamonds, who has won 9-of-20 lifetime starts including last year’s Lady Secret M. She’s been running nothing but graded stakes and was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

Here are the not-great field sizes, in order: 6, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 10.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:46 Monmouth: $100,000 Long Branch Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Supreme Aura (6-5)

12:10 Parx: $100,000 Turf Amazon Stakes, 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Blue Bahia (8-5)

12:19 Gulfstream: $100,000 Martha Washington Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Camila Princess (1-1)

1:04 Parx: Grade 3 $200,000 Parx Dash, 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Pure Sensation (3-2)

1:36 Belmont: Grade 3 $300,000 Dwyer Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Mendelssohn (8-5)

1:41 Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 American Derby, 3 year olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Captivating Moon (8-5)

1:45 Delaware: Grade 3 $200,000 Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Palinodie (5-2)

1:53 Woodbine: $100,000 My Dear Stakes, 2 year olds, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: My Gal Betty (8-5)

2:11 Belmont: Grade 2 $350,000 Belmont Sprint Championship, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Limousine Liberal (9-5)

2:16 Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 Modesty Handicap, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 3/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Daddy’s Little Darling (9-5)

2:45 Delaware: Grade 3 $300,000 Delaware Oaks, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Red Ruby (3-1)

2:46 Belmont: Grade 1 $1 million Belmont Oaks Invitational, fillies 3 years olds, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Significant Form (7-2)

2:51 Arlington: Hatoof Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Go Noni Go (7-2)

3:18 Belmont: Grade 2 $700,000 Suburban Handicap, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Dr. Dorr (3-1)

3:23 Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 Stars and Stripes Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/12 miles on turf. Favorite: Arklow (5-2)

3:36 Gulfstream: $100,000 Not Surprising Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Coltandmississippi (9-5)

3:50 Belmont: Grade 1 $1.2 million Belmont Derby Invitational, 3 year olds, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Analyze It (5-2)

3:55 Arlington: Grade 3 Arlington Handicap, 3 and up, 1 3/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Synchrony (6-5)

4:28 Los Alamitos: $200,000 Great Lady M Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Marley’s Freedom (4-5)

5:15 Pleasanton: $100,000 Everett Nevin Stakes, Cal-bred 2 year olds, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Mr Paytience (2-1)

Jose Contreras LRC pick of the day

SECOND RACE: No.4 Jump the Tracks (3-1)

He dueled through a quick opening quarter for the mile distance and faded to fourth in his most recent start across town at Santa Anita. He ran a solid effort two back when just missing third by a neck. The third and second place finishers of that race returned to win their next outings. There isn’t too much speed in this field and I think he can steal the race if he can get away with comfortable half-mile splits.

Friday’s result: Race was canceled.

Jose Contreras is an excellent handicapper and well known on social media and familiar to racing fans watching on TVG. You can follow him on twitter at @losponies or check him out at his website.

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 6 Racies Favorite (2-1)

This quick-breaking filly is back with maidens and qualifies for the conditions since she was disqualified from a Kindergarten Futurity trial victory two outs ago when drifting out to impede rivals past the 1/8-pole. In her latest start, she broke super before tiring to fifth in a 350-yard Ed Burke Million trial that featured earlier Kindergarten third-place finisher Ms KO. She also lands leading jockey Jesus Ayala.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at [email protected] or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s short results and Saturday’s entries.

EDNA stalked off the rail then bid three deep into the turn, dueled outside a rival then inched away leaving the turn, kicked clear off the rail then drew off inside under a couple left handed cracks of the whip and steady handling then a hold late. ARE RATED had good early speed and dueled inside, steadied in tight into the turn, came out on the bend and again into the stretch and edged a rival late for the place. KALYPSO NIGHT dueled outside a rival then between foes into the turn, continued inside on the turn, swung out into the stretch and was edged late for second. PRINCESS BECKY a bit slow to begin, chased off the rail, angled in some on the turn, found the rail on the turn and lacked a further response.

Winner–Bobbie Lincoln Dbb.m.5 by Tribal Rule out of Royal Turka, by Royal Academy. Bred by Peter T. Vajda (CA). Trainer: Ronald W. Ellis. Owner: Peter T. Vajda. Mutuel Pool $85,204 Daily Double Pool $17,086 Exacta Pool $46,308 Superfecta Pool $30,336 Trifecta Pool $39,421. Scratched–none.

Los Alamitos Race Course Entries for Saturday, July 7.

Los Alamitos Race Course, Los Alamitos, California. 7th day of a 12-day meet.