Racing! Heading into Kentucky Derby week

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get to the head of the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.

Here it is, Kentucky Derby week is here. We’ll have plenty of content over the next week but for some of it you’ll have to go to our website to find. But, we’ll direct you, don’t worry.

Those of you who have subscribed to this newsletter, hopefully, are up to date on what you need to know. My very good friend, Alan Schmadtke, an extremely exceptional journalist who has transitioned to being a marketing big shot, told me: “I’ve never felt so knowledgeable about the Kentucky Derby.” And he doesn’t really follow racing.

We hope you feel the same way.

For starters, let’s take a look at what are the big story lines for this Derby. Want to know what they are? Well, just click here.

More Derby with XBTV

This is your place for Derby information. Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse of XBTV.com are doing a series of exclusive video reports on the horses in the Kentucky Derby. Jeff isn’t shy with his opinions and I can’t think of a better primer to start thinking about who to bet on the first Saturday in May.

They are doing four horses a day. And once we get through the 20 horses, they will analyze the race and give you their picks.

Today: Part four: Lone Sailor, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, My Boy Jack. (Just click here.)

Part three: Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Justify. (Just click here.)

Part two: Enticed, Good Magic, Firenze Fire, Flameaway. (Just click here.)

Part one: Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Bravazo, Combatant. (Just click here.)

Santa Anita review

A couple of stakes races on Saturday. The first was the Grade 3 $100,00 Santa Barbara Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 ½ miles on the turf. It was won by longshot Queen Blossom, for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Flavien Prat.

Queen Blossom made some smart moves in the stretch and was able to get up by ½ a length. She paid $21.60, $8.60 and $5.60. Causeforcommotion was second and Pantsonfire was third.

“The pace was pretty slow,” Prat told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “With blinkers the first time, she was on the bit the whole way. But as soon as I asked her, she made a nice move.”

The second stakes was the Grade 2 $200,000 Californian Stakes, over 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. A runaway doesn’t quite capture it. Dr. Dorr won by 7 ¼ lengths as the favorite

He paid $3.00, $2.20 and $2.10. Prince Of Arabia was second and The Lieutenant was third.

“I give a lot of credit to [jockey Joe] Talamo,” winning trainer Bob Baffert said. “He rode him very patently and he rode him like he’s a good horse. I was really surprised myself the way he kicked into gear.”

Santa Anita preview

Sadly, it’s the last Mimosa Sunday with a start of 11:30 a.m. at Santa Anita. For the record, Santa Anita never used that label, it was just me. But is there a better thing to do on a sleepy Sunday morning than a trip to the Mimosa bar?

It’s a nine-race card with four turf races. The feature is the Grade 3 $100,000 San Simeon Stakes at 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill turf course. It’s set as the eighth race at about 3:15 p.m.

Conquest Tsunami is the 8-5 favorite. He won his last two races at Santa Anita and then was shipped to run on Dubai World Cup day where he finished third in a six furlong sprint. He has the experienced Victor Espinoza in the saddle for Peter Miller.

Coniah and Belvoir Bay are the second favorites at 4-1.

The field sizes, in order, are: 7, 7, 8, 7, 7, 8, 13, 8, 10 (1 also eligible).

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Parx: $100,000 Lyman Stakes, Penn-breds 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Moe Trouble ($9.40)

Parx: $100,000 Foxy J.G. Stakes, Penn-breds fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Power Of Snunner ($4.20)

Santa Anita: Grade 3 $100,000 Santa Barbara Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Queen Blossom ($21.60)

Woodbine: Grade 3 $125,000 Whimsical Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Let It Ride Mom ($9.30)

Santa Anita: Grade 2 $200,000 Californian Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Dr. Dorr ($3.00)

Belmont: $125,000 Elusive Quality Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Blind Ambition ($12.40)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

1:59 Woodbine: $125,000 Fury Stakes, Can-bred, fillies 3 years old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Summer Sunday (2-1)

2:18 Belmont: $125,000 License Fee Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Stormy Victoria (7-5)

2:59 Golden Gate: $100,000 Campanile Stakes, Cal-bred, fillies 3 years old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Pulpit Rider (1-1)

3:13 Santa Anita: Grade 3 $100,000 San Simeon Stakes, 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Conquest Tsunami (8-5)

4:03 Golden Gate: $100,000 Silky Sullivan Stakes, Cal-breds, 3 years old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Cono (3-1)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 2 War Heroine (7-2)

Sophomore filly from the Peter Miller takes on older here but appears to have a clear pace advantage and won her only start on the downhill turf course. Plus, her trainer seems to hit at an even higher percentage with his turf sprinters. Let's kick off the day with a wire-to-wire winner.

Saturday Result: Heavy favorite Rumpus Cat pulled very hard to contest the lead, was fanned wide into the lane, then faded badly through the final furlong.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 1 It’s Just Bob (3-1)

He had his speed sharpened when fourth at 870 yards from an outside draw in last outing and has enjoyed his best results from the inside. Gelding is effective from on/off pace and gets a nice seven-pound apprentice allowance with promising Kellie McDaid up. Dream On Brother, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, drops below his claimed level and looms vulnerable while making third start in one month.

Final thoughts

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at [email protected] or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

CUTE KNOWS CUTE stalked five wide then four wide leaving the hill and into the stretch, bid three deep to gain the lead in midstretch and held on gamely under urging. AN EDDIE SURPRISE stalked between foes down the hill, came out some in the stretch, bid between horses in deep stretch and continued willingly. THEODOSIA stalked the early pace outside, bid outside a rival to duel for the lead on the hill and into the stretch, was between foes in midstretch then fought back inside the top pair to the wire. MRASEEL (IRE) between horses early, chased outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. TIGER MOM sped to the early lead off the rail, angled in and dueled inside leaving the hill and into the stretch, fought back along the fence in midstretch and weakened late. MY MASTERPIECE chased between foes then outside a rival, went between horses again leaving the hill and outside a foe into the stretch and lacked the necessary rally. MILLIE JOEL saved ground stalking the pace throughout and could not offer the needed late kick. NEON GYPSY chased between horses four wide then three deep between foes leaving the hill, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. PROUDLY ELEGANT settled a bit off the rail chasing the pace, came out on the dirt crossing and four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. BAYTOWN JULIET was sent between horses early, stalked between rivals then steadied in tight past midway on the hill to drop back inside, came out leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. Rail on hill at zero.

OVER PROMISED saved ground stalking the pace, slipped through along the rail under left handed urging with a bit in deep stretch to gain the lead and gamely prevailed. ROYAL SEEKER stalked between horses and had the rider lose the whip early on the turn, continued outside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch, bid three wide a sixteenth out and continued willingly under a hand ride. CAPTAIN N. BARRON sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside, came a bit off the fence in the stretch, fought back between foes in deep stretch and was edged for the place. CHIKSIKA hopped slightly at the start, chased outside, went three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ROYAL REBEL dropped back off the rail, came out in the stretch and improved position. CATABILITY chased off the rail, came three wide into the stretch, came out some in upper stretch and did not rally. LUCKY SUN stalked between horses early then a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn and weakened. BORG stalked four wide then three deep into the turn, angled in some leaving the turn to loom a threat in upper stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

FENDER BENDER had speed inside to set a pressured pace along the rail, inched away on the turn, came out into the stretch, drifted out in midstretch and held on gamely under urging. DOWNSIDE UP stalked between horses then three deep on the turn and into the stretch, bid outside the winner past midstretch, battled outside that one in the final sixteenth but could not get by. BLESS HIS HEART stalked four wide then bid three deep leaving the backstretch, angled in and stalked just off the rail leaving the turn, found the inside in midstretch and bested the others. SOFT TRIP angled in and stalked inside on the backstretch and turn, came a bit off the rail past midstretch and weakened. FABRICATION crossed to the inside and saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. REAL QUICK pressed the pace between horses then stalked outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. TRE stalked the pace between rivals on the backstretch and into the turn, dropped back off the rail on the bend, came out into the stretch and had little left for the drive. PICADO had speed three deep then stalked four wide, dropped back on the turn and gave way.

QUEEN BLOSSOM (IRE) saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, split rivals in the drive, bid inside under urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. CAUSEFORCOMMOTION chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival, bid three deep leaving the final turn and into the stretch, took a short lead in upper stretch, inched away in midstretch, fought back inside the winner through the final sixteenth and continued willingly. PANTSONFIRE (IRE) settled a bit off the rail then inside chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch, split rivals past midstretch and gained the show. LUCY DE came a bit off the inside and chased outside a rival on the hill, angled to the inside for the middle turn, came out leaving the last turn and three wide into the stretch and was outfinished. PLEIN AIR (IRE) four wide early, pressed the pace outside a rival, put a head in front between horses leaving the final turn, fought back between foes into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. SPACE CADET between horses early, angled in and set a pressured pace inside, fought back leaving the last turn and into the stretch and also weakened in the final furlong. Rail on hill at zero.

DR. DORR three deep early, pressed the pace outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, took the lead into the second turn, inched away and angled in on that turn, kicked clear under some urging then steady handling in the stretch and a long hold late. PRINCE OF ARABIA angled in and settled inside then chased between foes into and on the backstretch, split horses again leaving the second turn, angled to the inside for the stretch and edged rivals for the place. THE LIEUTENANT settled outside a rival then three deep into and on the backstretch, continued outside a foe on the second turn and three wide into and through the drive and was edged for second. FULL OF LUCK (CHI) between horses early, stalked a bit off the rail, bid three deep leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, angled in and tracked the winner just off the rail on that turn and into the stretch, continued between horses through the final furlong and was edged for a minor award. SOI PHET sped to the early lead, set a pressured pace inside, stalked the winner on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. CURLIN ROAD between horses early, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch and also weakened.

OSCAR DOMINGUEZ (IRE) pulled along the inside and saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, bid three deep to gain the lead in midstretch, kicked clear while drifting in under left handed urging and proved best. ACKER four wide on the hill, angled in and pressed the pace outside a rival then stalked inside, re-bid between horses in midstretch and edged a rival for the place. THE BIG TRAIN stalked along the inside then between foes leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and finished with interest to be edged for second. HOOTIE pulled his way along four wide early then three deep into the first turn, pressed the pace outside a rival then stalked a bit off the rail, bid again between horses in midstretch and was outfinished for a minor award. MARCKIE'S WATER also pulled while chasing the pace between horses, continued off the rail leaving the second turn and in the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. JUNGLE WARFARE pulled between horses then chased outside a rival, went three deep on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and also could not offer the necessary late response. KRISTI'S COPILOT had speed three deep then angled in, set a pressured pace inside, inched clear on the backstretch, fought back inside in midstretch and weakened in the final furlong. MESUT pulled and stalked three deep then outside a rival, went three wide again on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and also weakened.

PAPPOU had good early speed and dueled between horses then outside the runner-up leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and through the stretch and got up late under left handed urging. WISE CURLIN sped to the early lead, angled in and dueled inside, fought back along the fence through a long drive and continued gamely to the end. DAD'S A GAMBLER close up stalking the pace between horses to the stretch, continued off the rail in the drive and gained the show. SQUARED SQUARED four wide into the first turn, pressed the pace three deep then stalked three wide leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and was outfinished for third. REVEREND AL well placed stalking the pace along the inside throughout, lacked the needed late kick. SUPER ECHELON stalked three deep, fell back and angled in some on the second turn and weakened. LIBERTY JACK settled inside then came out into the backstretch, chased off the rail then four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

PASSIONATE REWARD had speed between horses then angled in and stalked inside, took the lead along the rail in upper stretch, kicked clear under a tap of the whip and held under steady handling. ENGLANDER stalked outside then off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and finished well. CAPTAIN BUZZKILL a bit slow to begin, settled inside, saved ground down the hill and into the stretch and went along the inside for the show. CAPALL had speed a bit off the rail, dueled outside a rival then three deep, stalked leaving the hill, came four wide into the stretch and was outfinished for third. RUMPUS CAT pulled hard under a hold and steadied at the right hand curve, tugged his way between horses to bid for the lead then dueled outside a rival, was fanned out into the stretch and weakened. BREAKERS ISLE chased between foes early then outside a rival, continued just off the rail leaving the hill and lacked the needed rally. BELDEN AVENUE dropped back off the rail early, angled in outside a rival on the hill and into the stretch and had a mild late bid inside. BLITZKRIEG chased between horses and was in tight at the right hand curve, continued off the rail on the hill and three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. FIRE ROOSTER stalked outside then alongside a rival, continued off the inside leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and did not rally. MALIBU MAGIC dropped back off the rail early, angled in and saved ground down the hill and into the stretch to no avail. AGENT BOND sent along inside to duel for the lead, fought back leaving the hill, drifted out into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at zero.

LOVING LYNDA bobbled at the start, dropped back off the rail, went three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch, rallied under urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and won clear. COCO KISSES broke inward, stalked inside, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, rallied between horses in deep stretch and gained the place. LEMON CRUSH bobbled in a slow start, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and again in the drive and finished well. MISS RICOCHET stalked between horses then bid between foes into the turn, dueled outside a rival on the turn, took a short lead in the stretch, inched away in midstretch and weakened late. DEE WAY TO GO had speed outside then off the rail, angled in and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MAGNOLIA'S HOPE stalked between horses then steadied in tight a half mile out, angled to the inside on the turn and did not rally. FIGHT LIKA GIRL stalked between horses then three deep, dropped back on the turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

DURANGA chased between horses then off the rail on the backstretch and outside a rival on the turn, came out in upper stretch and rallied under left handed urging to sweep to the lead nearing the wire. COW DOG sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, continued clear past midstretch and could not hold off the winner. ALLIE'S LOVE stalked between horses then inside on the turn, came out some into the stretch and bested the rest. MAJESTIC DIVA broke out a bit, settled off the rail, angled in on the backstretch, saved ground thereafter and improved position in the stretch. RECKLESS CHARM bobbled in a slow start, went up inside to chase the pace, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MAGICALCHIC stalked four wide then three deep on the backstretch and outside a rival on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. ESTHERFOURFOURTEEN close up stalking the pace three deep then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. BEAT THE BUSHES bobbled slightly at the start, stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and gave way.

SKELTON PASS had good early speed and dueled between horses, put a head in front leaving the hill, inched away under urging in the stretch and held. CALVERT STREET dueled three deep, fought back leaving the hill and into the stretch, could not quite match the winner but saved the place. GENERAL IKE stalked three deep then outside a rival into the stretch, angled in some in the drive and held third. REIGN ON (GB) saved ground stalking the pace, came out in upper stretch and lacked the needed late kick. SECRETO PRIMERO chased along the inside, was in tight off heels nearing the dirt crossing, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PICK ONE hopped a bit at the start, chased just off the rail then angled in on the hill, cut the corner into the stretch, split horses past midstretch and could not summon the necessary response. MADELYN'S WILD MAX chased outside then four wide on the hill, came out six wide into the stretch and did not rally. SOUTH AMERICAIN bobbled at the start, dropped back outside then angled in a bit off the rail on the hill and improved position some in the lane. YES YES YES chased outside a rival then between horses, steadied onto the dirt crossing, came out and steadied sharply five wide into the stretch, came out again and lacked a rally. BANZE NO OESTE (BRZ) pulled between foes then outside a rival, split horses three deep leaving the hill, steadied sharply off heels four wide into the stretch and also lacked a rally. EXECUTIVE CAT had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, fought back leaving the hill and weakened ion the stretch. CONQUEST DADDYO close up stalking the pace between horses, came out on the dirt crossing, steadied sharply while getting out four wide into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at zero.