Racing! Jon White’s top 10 Kentucky Derby horses after a weekend of big preps

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Jon White plays a game of five questions.

Last weekend was huge with a DQ win by Bolt D’Oro over McKinzie and Justify’s two-turn cake walk. Plus, there were two other Kentucky Derby preps back East. What does it all mean? We’ve got the guy to tell you. In what’s one of the most popular features of the newsletter this time of year, we’ve got Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10.

The floor is yours, Jon.

“McKinzie was ranked No. 1 last week, with Bolt D'Oro at No. 2. The racing action last weekend, highlighted at Santa Anita by a slugfest between Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie in the San Felipe Stakes and yet another impressive victory by Justify, spawned the following five questions concerning my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list this week.

“1. After McKinzie and Bolt D'Oro both ran so marvelously in the San Felipe, who would go in the top spot this week?

“A really tough question to answer. McKinzie finished first, a head in front of Bolt D'Oro in the San Felipe. But Bolt D'Oro emerged as the official San Felipe winner after the stewards disqualified McKinzie for fouling Bolt D'Oro in the final sixteenth. After giving the matter considerable thought, inasmuch as McKinzie did finish first in the San Felipe, I ultimately decided to keep him first on my Top 10 list.

“2. Even though Justify has started only twice and has yet to run in a stakes race, could I justify putting him on my Kentucky Derby Top 10?

“Absolutely.

“3. How high on the list should Justify go?

“The more I thought about it, I felt that I could not put Justify any lower than No. 3. That's because the Scat Daddy colt looks so darn scary in that he just seems to ooze talent. Justify validated his 9 1/2-length debut win at seven furlongs on Feb. 19 by cruising to a 6 1/2-length triumph in a one-mile race on a muddy track last Sunday. Justify was so popular in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager offered by Churchill Downs that he sported the lowest odds of any horse at 6-1. Bolt d'Oro was 7-1. McKinzie was 9-1.

“4. By ranking Justify so high, does it mean he actually might win the Kentucky Derby even though he did not race as a 2-year-old?

“At this point, I can't help but think Justify could possibly do it even though the odds definitely are stacked again him from a historical standpoint. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without having started as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Not even a colt as exceptional as Curlin could do it. After Curlin did not race at 2, he won his first three starts as a 3-year-old by 12 3/4, 5 1/4 and 10 1/2 lengths. But Curlin could do no better than finish third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, which was won by Street Sense. Street Sense is the sire of both McKinzie and the winner of last Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby, Quip.

“5. Would Quip make his way onto my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list this week, along with Enticed, winner of last Saturday's Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct?

“Yes. Quip, who won the Tampa Bay Derby by one length, has lost only once in four career starts. Enticed, who prevailed by 2 3/4 lengths in the Gotham, now has won three of five lifetime starts. But while Quip and Entice do deserve credit for their victories last Saturday, neither effort measured up to the performances by McKinzie and Bolt D'Oro in the San Felipe.

“Looking ahead, Solomini, who currently is ranked No. 6, will be making his 2018 debut in Saturday's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park for trainer Bob Baffert. The 1 1/16-mile Rebel has attracted a field of 11. Another contender is the highly regarded Magnum Moon, who is two for two for trainer Todd Pletcher.

“Watch out for Sporting Chance in Rebel, even though jockey Luis Saez will not not be riding him, opting instead for Magnum Moon. Trained by Wayne Lukas, Sporting Chance finished third in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on a muddy track Feb. 19. Sporting Chance is eligible to improve on his Southwest effort inasmuch as he had not raced since winning the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last Sept. 4. While it is true that Sporting Chance has been spurned in the Rebel by Saez, the Tiznow colt nevertheless does get a Hall of Fame rider in John Velazquez.�

Here are the rankings:

1. McKinzie (1)

2. Bolt D'Oro (2)

3. Justify (NR)

4. Good Magic (3)

5. Audible (4)

6. Solomini (5)

7. Promises Fulfilled (6)

8. Quip (NR)

9. Enticed (NR)

10. Instilled Regard (7)

Note: Last week’s ranking in parentheses.

Santa Anita review

Smiling Tigress was the Cal-bred of the day winning the Santa Anita feature by a convincing 3 3/4 lengths. It was a $56,000 allowance for fillies and mares 3 and up going 6 furlongs. Smiling Tigress, with Tyler Baze aboard, easily passed the favored Strike At Daylight for the win.

Smiling Tigress paid $11.00, $4.40 and $3.40.

“She’s getting better and better all the time and Tyler rode her great,� winning trainer David Bernstein told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “She wants to come from off the pace, that’s her best way to go. We’ll she how she is and look at some Cal-bred races.�

Santa Anita preview

It’s not a great card at Santa Anita on Friday, especially in the field sizes, with half the races only having six horses. It’s eight races, with the new noon post time. There are only two turf races, this coming off a series of turf cancellations. But, then again there is a 70% chance of rain on Friday, according to weather.com.

Six of the races are claimers, including the sixth, which carries a tag of $6,250, the lowest Santa Anita goes. The fifth is an allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares 4 and up over 1 1/16 of a mile. The seventh is the other allowance/optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf.

The field sixes, in order: 6, 6, 8, 6, 6, 7, 9 (3 also eligible), 8.

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 2 Toinette (9-5)

Recent maiden winner from the Neil Drysdale barn overcame a very slow start to prevail by a nose when switching to turf. The daughter of Scat Daddy should have no problem with the two-turn distance and figures to get plenty of pace at which to run. Box her in the exacta with English import West Palm Beach (7-2), another daughter of Scat Daddy, who makes her first start on turf after two synthetic wins overseas.

Thursday’s result: The race was taken off the turf and Giant Mongolian was scratched.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is now in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Trainer Keith Craigmyle begins the racing week at Los Alamitos one win shy of 500 career thoroughbred wins. Craigmyle, the leading thoroughbred trainer here in 2007, will have a chance to reach the mark on Saturday night when he saddles Corn On The Code in the first and Red White N Fast in the second. Both races are 4 ½ furlongs.

“Craigmyle will also saddle Princess Fran in the third at 870 yards on Saturday, but a first-place finish here would be considered a win in mixed races as quarter horses are also eligible to compete. In his career training thoroughbreds, Craigmyle has 2,781 starters, 499 wins, 448 places and 407 shows. His thoroughbreds have earned $4,270,394. The blazing fast mare Miss Loujean is one of his top trainees ever, as she won nine races from 45 starts and earned $278,467. The 7-year-old Unusual Heat mare is a stakes-placed runner at Los Alamitos and an allowance winner at Hollywood Park, Del Mar and Los Alamitos.

“Los Alamitos will have an abbreviated seven-race program on Friday night, which means that the pick four will start in races one and four. As usual, the two wagers still figure to attract pools of more than $100,000. First post is 7 p.m.

“The fourth race is the key race as it wraps up the early pick four while also kicking off the late pick four. Seven thoroughbreds go in this 870-yard race headed by Dream Of Eagle, who has hit the board in her last three starts at Los Alamitos. The field also has the Square Eddie gelding Sizzling Eddie, who showed good early speed at Golden Gate in his last outing while running third.

“The feature for quarter horses is the seventh. Midori Sparkle was fourth in the Grade 2 Southern California Derby last year. Her earnings of $35,000 are easily the highest among the horses in the race. Midori Sparkle also ran third to eventual Terrific Energy Handicap winner Designs By Dynasty in a recent allowance.

“Now a few one-liners to recap last weekend’s trials: In the trials to the Grade 3 El Primero Del Ano Derby, Keith Nellesen’s KVN Corona remained unbeaten in seven career starts after winning his trial by a nose, while Martha Well’s Yanque posted the fastest qualifying time to the May 31 final. In the trials to the Grade 3 La Primera Del Ano Derby, stablemates A Political Lady and Terrific Temptation won their respective trials and will give Parsons Ranch a strong one-two punch in the May 30 final.�

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 6 Thought Out (3-1)

She finally draws the far outside post after starting four of her seven career races from the number one slot. She whipped her head as the gate opened when away very slow in last to ignore after a six-week rest. She should be more fit while returning in three weeks here.

Final thought

If you would like to subscribe to the newsletter you can click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at [email protected] or follow me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

WISHFUL dueled three deep then outside a rival on the turn, took a short lead in midstretch and inched away under left handed urging. ZILLINDA stalked off the rail then outside on the turn, came out into the stretch, bid three deep in midstretch, could not quite match the winner late but bested the others. GET YOURSELF HOME dueled between horses then off the rail on the turn, fought back between foes in midstretch and held third. NICE ICE chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn, came out in the stretch and was edged for the show. STARSHIP TREASURE went up inside to duel for the lead, stalked along thee rail on the turn and weakened in the stretch. PERFECT PORTRAIT chased a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, came out a bit in the stretch and also weakened. FEELING THE HEAT broke out and bumped a rival, settled a bit off the rail to the stretch and also weakened. OPERANDI bumped at the break, stalked a bit off the rail, dropped back in the stretch and gave way. STARSHIP TREASURE wore calks.

WILLY TELL HIM dueled off the rail then inside into the turn, came off the fence into the stretch, battled outside the runner-up in the final furlong and inched away late under urging. DON'T STALK ME angled in and stalked between horses then outside a rival, found the fence into the stretch, bid inside the winner and continued willingly to the end. TIME FOR CIOPPINO stumbled at the start, stalked three deep then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and held third. LIPSTER angled in and dueled outside the winner on the backstretch and turn, was fanned out into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. IMA TAKE CHARGE saved ground chasing the pace, came out in upper stretch and had little left for the drive. WILLY TELL HIM and DON'T STALK ME wore calks.

OPTIC sped to the early lead outside, angled in and set the pace a bit off the rail to the stretch and just held under urging. BOURBON DUDE chased a bit off the rail then between foes on the backstretch and outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and finished well to just miss. FABRICATION was in a good position chasing the pace three deep then off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn, continued along the fence in the stretch and bested the others. MOON JUICE stalked just off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. MINISTERTOMYHEART a step slow to begin, chased inside then just off the rail, came out into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. MINISTERTOMYHEART and MOON JUICE wore calks.

EASYDOES IT PLEASE chased a bit off the rail, angled to the inside into the stretch, bid along the fence in the drive, gained the advantage past midstretch and inched away under urging in the final sixteenth. WHOA NESSIE dueled outside a rival, inched away leaving the turn, fought back between horses in midstretch and held second.se. WARM IT UP stalked outside, came three wide into the stretch, bid three deep in midstretch and was edged for the place. BECOMES A QUEEN steadied at the start, settled off the rail then outside a rival on the turn and weakened. UNUSUAL GATOR settled off the rail, angled in on the turn, came out into the stretch and gave way. ACCEPTED had good early speed and dueled inside, stalked on the turn, gave way along the rail in the stretch and was eased in the final furlong. EASYDOES IT PLEASE and WARM IT UP wore calks.

DEVIL'S BEAUTY stalked outside a rival, bid outside the runner-up on the turn, was fanned out while taking a short lead into the stretch and inched away under urging in the final furlong. PLANE LUCKY sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail then dueled inside on the turn, came out into the stretch, fought back in midstretch, drifted in through the final furlong and could not match the winner. DRAGON FLOWER stalked the pace inside then off the rail on the turn, came out into the stretch and bested the others. ROCKANTHAROS broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then inside, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. SHE'SLUCKYTHATWAY settled outside a rival then off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a further response.

SMILING TIGRESS a bit slow into stride, chased inside then outside a rival leaving the backstretch, came out into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up to gain the lead past the eighth pole and won clear under a left handed crack of the ship and good handling. STRIKE AT DAYLIGHT stalked outside a rival, bid alongside the pacesetter on the turn, took a short lead a quarter mile out, fought back off the rail in midstretch, could not match the winner and just held second. RED STICH hopped some at the start, stalked three deep then outside a rival, came four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. PIED N TRUE chased outside then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. LOVE A HONEYBADGER sped to the early lead off the rail, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled along the fence on the turn and weakened in the final furlong. TWISTED ROSIE pulled her way along off the rail and was in a bit tight midway on the backstretch, chased off the inside to the stretch and weakened. PARTY HOSTESS saved ground chasing the pace throughout and weakened in the drive. SHARONA SUNSET chased a bit off the rail then inside, saved ground on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened.

STURDY ONE settled then stalked three deep, continued outside a rival on the turn and three wide into the stretch, bid under left handed urging in deep stretch and got up in the final stride. TANGLED UP IN JU sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, held well in the stretch and was caught on the line. REVENUE VIRGINIUS stalked outside a rival then between horses on the backstretch and just off the rail on the turn and bested the others. RYDER'S STARLIGHT angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out on the turn and three wide into the stretch and did not rally. MADAME MOUSSE chased a bit off the rail then inside, came out on the turn and between horses into the stretch and weakened. MIDNIGHT SWINGER stalked a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch.

AWESOME ANYWHERE stalked outside a rival then off the rail leaving the turn, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under urging to bid outside the runner-up past midstretch, gained the advantage in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. R CHA CHA had good early speed and dueled inside, came off the rail in the stretch, inched away in midstretch, fought back in deep stretch and could not hold off the winner. ZAP AGAIN chased off the rail, was between horses into the stretch and picked up the show. MISTER MOJO dueled outside the runner-up, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. UNCLE BILLY stalked off the rail then outside, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. PARTICLEACELERATOR lugged out early and stalked off the inside, angled to the rail on the turn and weakened in the drive.