Always Dreaming faded down the stretch, where Cloud Computing overtook second-favorite Classic Empire to win the 142nd Preakness States on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course.
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Cloud Computing wins the 142nd Preakness Stakes over Classic Empire
Everyone was saying it was a two horse race. Everyone was wrong.
Cloud Computing pulled the upset in Saturday’s running of the 142nd Preakness Stakes on Saturday under overcast skies on a fast track.
He caught the leaders down the stretch and overtook second-favorite Classic Empire to win by a nose and end the Triple Crown hopes of Always Dreaming, winner of the Kentucky Derby. Senior Investment finished third.
Always Dreaming and Classic Empire were the clear favorites among the record Pimlico Race Course crowd of 140,327, as well as simulcast bettors across the country.
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Latest Preakness odds as post time approaches
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of 6 p.m. EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 13-1
3. Hence 20-1
4. Always Dreaming 7-5
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 10-1
7. Term Of Art 40-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 9-1
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Preakness racing surface now labeled as fast
As expected, the racing surface at Pimlico Race Course has been upgraded to fast for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes.
An overnight rain left the track muddy when fans and horsemen arrived Saturday morning. But the lack of more precipitation and a steady wind dried out the track significantly.
It was still a little wet but not the slop that hindered horses two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby.
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Latest Preakness odds, less than 2 hours to go
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of 5 p.m. EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 13-1
3. Hence 19-1
4. Always Dreaming 3-2
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 10-1
7. Term Of Art 40-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 9-1
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Latest Preakness odds, with less than 3 hours to go
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of 4 p.m. EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 13-1
3. Hence 19-1
4. Always Dreaming 8-5
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 10-1
7. Term Of Art 40-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 9-1
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Preakness racing surface upgraded to good
Three hours before the running of the 142nd Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, the racing surface was upgraded from muddy to good.
It actually appeared the surface had improved several races earlier, but no change was made in its status until midday.
When asked whether the surface would improve enough to be rated fast by Preakness post, Sal Sinatra, Maryland Jockey Club president and general manager, said: “I’m pretty confident. I’m feeling good about it.”
It hasn’t rained all day, and a brisk wind has done its best to dry the track. The last rainfall was late Friday evening, which delayed the finish of the Baltimore Orioles game.
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Preakness Field: 10. Conquest Mo Money
Trainer: Miguel Hernandez
Jockey: Jorge Carreno
Owner: Judge Lanier Racing
Morning Line: 15-1
Last race: Second in the Arkansas Derby
Why he’ll win: He’s probably the best early speed in the race, and if he can throw down honest fractions he might be able to hold on and steal the race, especially if Always Dreaming and Classic Empire flatten out. He’s got five weeks of rest so that should help.
Why he’ll lose: He got run down by Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8-miles. And lost the Sunland Derby, also at 1 1/18 miles, to Hence. His only real negative is if he has the stamina to go the extra distance beyond 1 1/16 miles.
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Preakness odds at less than 5 hours to go
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of 2 p.m. EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 14-1
3. Hence 19-1
4. Always Dreaming 3-2
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 10-1
7. Term Of Art 45-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 9-1
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Preakness Field: 9. Lookin at Lee
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Owner: L and N Racing
Morning Line: 10-1
Last race: Second in Kentucky Derby
Why he’ll win: Second place in the Kentucky Derby normally gets you more love than this horse is getting. His sire, Lookin at Lucky, won the Preakness in 2010. He finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile so he has performed in the big races.
Why he’ll lose: He had an absolutely perfect rail trip in the Kentucky Derby, which is unlikely to be duplicated in the Preakness. He’s a good horse but seems just a cut below the top horses in this race.
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Preakness Field: 8. Senior Investment
Trainer: Kenneth McPeak
Jockey: Channing Hill
Owner: Fern Circle Stables
Morning Line: 30-1
Last race: Won the Lexington Stakes
Why he’ll win: In the unlikely event there are torrid early fractions by the best horses, he could pick up the pieces with a late rally. He’s fresh, having not raced in five weeks.
Why he’ll lose: He seems way over his head against this level of competition. The only major prep he ran was the Louisiana Derby, where he finished sixth. Not sure why he’s here.
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Preakness Field: 7. Term of Art
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: Calumet Farm
Morning Line: 30-1
Last race: Seventh in the Santa Anita Derby
Why he’ll win: He’s fresh with six weeks since his last start. He was third in the San Felipe behind Mastery and Iliad, both off the trail because of injury. He has added blinkers, which could make a difference. He could definitely grab a paycheck passing tiring horses in the stretch.
Why he’ll lose: He’s never shown he can win at this level or really even compete with the top echelon. Trainer Doug O’Neill didn’t plan on entering him in the Preakness until Calumet Farm suggested it. O’Neill didn’t even get to Pimlico until late Friday and didn’t send his top assistant Leandro Mora to Baltimore to supervise the horse this week.
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Preakness Field: 6. Gunnevera
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Peacock Racing Stables
Morning Line: 15-1
Last race: Seventh in the Kentucky Derby
Why he’ll win: If he can keep from getting too far behind, he could repeat his stellar performance in the Fountain of Youth. He’s got the best big money rider in Mike Smith aboard and that’s a plus. Along with Lookin at Lee, he’s the most experienced colt, making his 11th start.
Why he’ll lose: The shorter distance coupled with his late charging style makes it pretty difficult to gain a lot of ground late against such talent as Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. Jockey Jose Castellano got off the horse to ride Cloud Computing.
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Latest Preakness odds, less than 6 hours to go
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of 1 p.m. EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 14-1
3. Hence 19-1
4. Always Dreaming 3-2
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 10-1
7. Term Of Art 45-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 9-1
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Preakness Field: 5. Classic Empire
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Owners: John C. Oxley
Morning line: 3-1
Last race: Fourth in the Kentucky Derby
Why he’ll win: He had an absolutely horrible trip in the Kentucky Derby, getting slammed by McCraken after he was slammed by Irish War Cry. Recovering the finish fourth was quite an accomplishment. He was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion and won the Arkansas Derby, so he’s got lots of talent. His post gives him tactical advantage over Always Dreaming.
Why he’ll lose: Sometimes after a horse has a really tough trip, it doesn’t come back in the next race. It’s more mental than physical. He may run his race and still not beat Always Dreaming, who is equally, if not more, talented.
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Preakness Field: 4. Always Dreaming
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owners: MeB Racing, Brooklyn Boyz, Teresa Viola, St. Elias Stables, Siena Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds
Morning Line: 4-5
Last race: Won the Kentucky Derby
Why he’ll win: He’s likely be the best horse. It’s no easy feat to win the Kentucky Derby, and he did it will a trouble-free trip. Todd Pletcher says the horse has been training perfectly and in great health and spirit. His early speed and stalking ability will keep him out of trouble.
Why he’ll lose: A lot of good horses were compromised in the Derby by the track conditions. He was never really threatened so you didn’t get to see how he would handle the pressure. He’s a 3-year-old, and strange things can happen.
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Preakness Field: 3. Hence
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Calumet Farm
Morning line: 20-1
Last race: 11th in the Kentucky Derby
Why he’ll win: He was the wise-guy choice in the Derby, so a few people saw something that wasn’t necessarily evident on paper. He’s got a good trainer in Steve Asmussen and a good jockey in Florent Geroux. He had a 97 Beyer speed in winning the Sunland Derby.
Why he’ll lose: Winning the Sunland Derby is not a steppingstone to much. He never got any traction in the Derby, and it’s unknown whether it’s a product of the track or the horse.
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Preakness Field: 2. Cloud Computing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owners: Klaravich Stables and William H. Lawrence
Morning Line: 12-1
Last race: Third in the Wood Memorial six weeks ago.
Why he’ll win: The trainer-jockey combination of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano is a big plus. The horse qualified for the Kentucky Derby but was instead pointed to this race. His second in the Gotham Stakes posted a 96 Beyer speed rating.
Why he’ll lose: He is very lightly raced with only three starts. He hasn’t won since his first race, a maiden sprint.
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Latest Preakness odds, less than 7 hours to go
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of noon EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 15-1
3. Hence 20-1
4. Always Dreaming 7-5
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 0-1
7. Term Of Art 45-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 9-1
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Preakness Field: 1. Multiplier
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owners: American Equistock
Morning line: 30-1
Last race: Won the Illinois Derby four weeks ago.
Why he’ll win: He has won his last two races, including the Grade 3 Illinois Derby, so we don’t know how good he can be. It’s a tall order to step up to this competition, but Always Dreaming won the Florida Derby in his first stakes race.
Why he’ll lose: He didn’t run at all as a 2-year-old, and four races may not be enough. The horses he beat in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne would not be considered stellar. His speed figures are very mediocre for a race of this magnitude.
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Latest Preakness odds, less than 8 hours to go
Here are the latest odds on the Preakness Stakes as of 11:15 p.m. EDT.
1. Multiplier 18-1
2. Cloud Computing 15-1
3. Hence 20-1
4. Always Dreaming 3-2
5. Classic Empire 2-1
6. Gunnevera 9-1
7. Term Of Art 45-1
8. Senior Investment 25-1
9. Lookin At Lee 8-1
10. Conquest Mo Money 10-1
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Overnight rain leaves Pimlico surface muddy
A strong overnight rain left the Pimlico Race Course track listed as muddy for the first race. It originally was listed as good but was downgraded shortly before the first post.
There is no threat of rain in the forecast on Saturday day, so there is a reasonable expectation that the track will be listed as fast by the time the Preakness goes off shortly before 7 p.m. Eastern time.
There is a slight breeze, which also should help dry the track.
The weather is near perfect for racing, with temperatures in the upper 60s under an overcast sky.
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What time is the Preakness Stakes?
It’s time to plan your day, and you want to be home for the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. So what is post time for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course?
If you’re in Maryland, or anywhere else on the East Coast, it’s 6:48 p.m.
In Chicago, how about 5:48 p.m.
Hiking in the Rockies, well, it’s 4:48 p.m.
And enjoying life in Los Angeles, your afternoon is interrupted at 3:48 p.m.
Now that’s not to say the race will actually go off at that time. The big races tend to go off around five or six minutes after the post as the tracks try and collect all the bets they can.
The load into the gate will be quick as there are only 10 horses compared with the 20 in the Kentucky Derby. After the gates open, the 1 3/16-mile race will take about 1 minute 56 seconds, give or take a second or two.
What’s at stake is a possible Triple Crown bid if Always Dreaming, the Kentucky Derby winner, can beat this field. The next and final race in the Triple Crown is the Belmont Stakes in three weeks.
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Ask Wayne Lukas if you want to know how to win the Preakness
If you want to know about the Preakness, especially if you want to know how to win the race, there’s only one person to ask.
And there he was sitting by himself early Friday morning in a plastic chair on the shedrow of the stakes barn at Pimlico Race Course. The familiar cowboy hat was perched atop his head. Sunglasses adorned his face. He wasn’t doing much, just waiting to instill wisdom on whoever wanted it.
Wayne Lukas — only those who don’t really know horse racing use the “D” before his name — ambled over to the fence and proclaimed morning-line favorite and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming as his top choice in Saturday’s running of the 142nd Preakness Stakes.
“I actually think he looks better to me this week than he did at the Derby,” Lukas said. “I watched him pretty close. I think he can get it. I think the next one [Belmont Stakes] is going to be the tough one for him.”
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The time that TVG’s Kurt Hoover was Todd Pletcher’s boss
Todd Pletcher’s connections to Southern California aren’t very strong, but he did spend a short time in Arcadia when his father was training at Santa Anita.
Pletcher, trainer of Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, ended up playing basketball on a team named the Trailblazers in an Arcadia recreation league in 1980.
“I was out there for one semester,” Pletcher said. “When you are at a new school, it’s a tough situation. This was a good way to meet people and get involved.”
He was living near Arcadia High School but because of a fire he had to go to Dana Junior High.
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Trainer Todd Pletcher says Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming is ready to ‘stretch his neck’ at Preakness
This year’s Preakness has lacked the buzz and lifeblood that sometimes can accompany the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.
There is no freak of nature horse.
There is no outrageous trainer.
There is no one who really believes a major upset is possible.
The civility of everyone is stifling.
It’s a perfect fit for Todd Pletcher and his Kentucky Derby-winning horse, Always Dreaming.
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Classic Empire ready to go to work as Preakness approaches
If a person refuses to work, there’s a good chance they get fired.
If a horse refuses to work, there’s a good chance they get sent to a nice farm where they can frolic and play.
Well, maybe not quite like that, but not too far off.
This was the decision trainer Mark Casse made after Classic Empire refused to engage in a workout in the middle of the Kentucky Derby prep season.
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You always remember your first time, although jockeys don’t find it a big deal
You would never think of buying a car without test driving it. Or, when you go to the rental car counter, you’re often given a choice, so you pick the vehicle with which you’re most familiar.
So how is it that jockeys can get on a horse without ever having ridden or worked the animal and make it look like they are lifelong friends?
If you ask the best — and in this case, that’s Mike Smith — they will tell you it’s no big deal to have your butt on a horse for the very first time seconds after the “riders up” call.
Smith will be doing just that for a second straight Triple Crown race Saturday, when he rides Gunnevera in the Preakness.
This will follow his ride on Girvin, a horse he had never ridden, in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago.
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Five story lines to follow as Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming heads to the Preakness Stakes
Last year, the Preakness Stakes was labeled as the next meeting in the intense rivalry between two West Coast colts, Nyquist and Exaggerator, who ran first and second, respectively, in the Kentucky Derby.
Exaggerator turned the tables and won the Preakness, with Nyquist finishing third. Southern California racing was on top.
This year, the thinking is the exact opposite, and it’s the absence of California horses that is so glaring.
What’s that old blues song — if it wasn’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all?
The latest blow came Sunday when Royal Mo suffered a sesamoid fracture of his right front ankle during his last workout before Saturday’s Preakness.
There was no initial indication that there was additional damage to the area around the fracture. He was vanned to the New Bolton Center, where the University of Pennsylvania Veterinary Center is located.
The injury is certainly career-ending, but if there are no complications, it will not be life-ending and he will be retired to the breeding shed.
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Recapping Always Dreaming’s victory in the 143rd Kentucky Derby
Mary Ellen Bonomo came up with the name.
Anthony Bonomo and Vincent Viola had the goal and helped with a plan.
Todd Pletcher knew how to get it done.
Always Dreaming did all the rest.
The lightly raced 3-year-old colt took the lead on the backstretch and seemed to have everything under control as he became the 143rd winner of the Kentucky Derby on May 6.
He won by 2 3/4 lengths over Lookin At Lee, who could never really make a charge at him. Battle Of Midway, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Flavien Prat, finished five lengths behind Lookin At Lee in third.
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Preakness speculation began as soon as the Kentucky Derby field crossed the finish line
It’s a Kentucky Derby rite of passage, the excitement that builds for the Preakness the moment the winner crosses the finish line at Churchill Downs.
Is Always Dreaming good enough to win the Preakness? Sure.
Is he a Triple Crown horse? Probably not, but it’s too early to tell.
The Kentucky Derby was not a good indication of the ability of many of the horses because the surface, which Equibase ridiculously labeled as “wet fast,” compromised the run of a lot of starters.
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Slide show: Photos from the 143rd Kentucky Derby
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Always Dreaming cruises to the Kentucky Derby victory
If there was a consensus, although not a very strong one, for the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby, one of four horses would win Saturday’s race: Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry and McCraken.
Well, maybe this sport does follow form.
Always Dreaming was able to navigate the 1 1/4 miles of the world’s most famous race to receive the blanket of roses.
He won by three lengths over runner-up Looking at Lee. Battle of Midway finished third just ahead of Irish War Cry.
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Kentucky Derby odds with about an hour to go
Here are the odds as of 5:30 EDT for the Kentucky Derby. The morning line odds are in parentheses so you can see which horses are getting more or less action than expected.
1. Lookin at Lee (20-1) 31-1
2. Thunder Snow (20-1) 16-1
3. Fast and Accurate (50-1) 37-1
4. Untrapped (30-1) 57-1
5. Always Dreaming (5-1) 9-2
6. State of Honor (30-1) 51-1
7. Girvin (15-1) 22-1
8. Hence (15-1) 16-1
9. Irap (20-1) 38-1
10. Gunnevera (15-1) 10-1
11. Battle of Midway (30-1) 37-1
12. Sonneteer (50-1) 36-1
13. J Boys Echo (20-1) 46-1
14. Classic Empire (4-1) 7-1
15. McCraken (5-1) 6-1
16. Tapwrit (20-1) 26-1
17. Irish War Cry (6-1) 9-2
18. Gormley (15-1) 21-1
19. Practical Joke (20-1) 30-1
20. Patch (30-1) 12-1
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Kentucky Derby Field: 19. Practical Joke
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owners: Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence
Morning Line: 20-1
How he got here: Second in the Bluegrass and Fountain of Youth, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Why he’ll win: He never runs a bad race, having never finished worse than third. His stalking style could benefit in a race with very little pace.
Why he’ll lose: He couldn’t get past a tiring Irap in the Bluegrass, so there should be some concern that he can go the extra furlong.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 20. Patch
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Owner: Calumet Farm
Morning Line: 30-1
How he got here: Second in the Louisiana Derby
Why he’ll win: If you believe in magical stories at the Derby, then this one-eyed horse fits the bill. He’s also bred to go the distance.
Why he’ll lose: This is only his fourth race, and that lack of experience will work against him. He also hasn’t really raced any formidable opposition, other than finishing second to Girvin.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 18. Gormley
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Owners: Jerry and Ann Moss
Morning Line: 15-1
How he got here: Won the FrontRunner, the Sham and the Santa Anita Derby.
Why he’ll win: Veteran trainer John Shirreffs has made an adjustment to Gormley’s running style before he won the Santa Anita Derby. They horse also has a great jockey in Victor Espinoza. If the track stays wet, that should also benefit him.
Why he’ll lose: The Santa Anita Derby time was very slow. He’ll need some luck to out-close some of the stronger horses as his speed numbers seem weaker than others.
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Weather worsening at Churchill Downs
Despite a forecast for no more rain at Churchill Downs, it returned at about 4:15 EDT and continued through the 10th race.
Any chance of the track being upgraded to good or wet fast seemed to be remote.The track was listed as sloppy just as the sun came out about 30 minutes before race 11.
Weather radar showed another cell was headed to the Louisville area as the Kentucky Derby was still about two hours away.
Handicappers will be looking at the past performances and breeding to see who does well in the slop.
Thunder Snow, Hence, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Battle of Midway and Gormley have all won a race over a wet dirt surface.
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Kentucky Derby odds with about two hours to go
Here are the odds as of 4:30 EDT for the Kentucky Derby. The morning line odds are in parentheses so you can see which horses are getting more or less action than expected.
1. Lookin at Lee (20-1) 30-1
2. Thunder Snow (20-1) 16-1
3. Fast and Accurate (50-1) 37-1
4. Untrapped (30-1) 58-1
5. Always Dreaming (5-1) 9-2
6. State of Honor (30-1) 52-1
7. Girvin (15-1) 22-1
8. Hence (15-1) 15-1
9. Irap (20-1) 38-1
10. Gunnevera (15-1) 10-1
11. Battle of Midway (30-1) 37-1
12. Sonneteer (50-1) 35-1
13. J Boys Echo (20-1) 46-1
14. Classic Empire (4-1) 7-1
15. McCraken (5-1) 6-1
16. Tapwrit (20-1) 26-1
17. Irish War Cry (6-1) 5-1
18. Gormley (15-1) 21-1
19. Practical Joke (20-1) 30-1
20. Patch (30-1) 13-1
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Kentucky Derby Field: 17. Irish War Cry
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Owner: Isabelle de Tomaso
Morning Line: 6-1
How he got here: Won the Holy Bull and the Wood Memorial.
Why he’ll win: If you toss out the Fountain of Youth, where he finished seventh, he’s undefeated. He has some early speed and if he can turn honest fractions he is talented enough to hold off the batch of closers.
Why he won’t: The time in the Wood was a bit slow . No horse has ever won from the 17, and he’s New Jersey-bred, which is even below Cal breds.
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Slide show: Kentucky Derby hats on parade
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Kentucky Derby Field: 16. Tapwrit
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owners: Bridlewood Farm and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners
Morning Line: 20-1
How he got here: Won the Tampa Bay Derby, second in the Sam F. Davis
Why he’ll win: He was impressive with his win in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was bought as a yearling for $1.2 million, so there has to be something there to bring that kind of price.
Why he’ll lose: He’s never won a race outside Florida, and is just one in a bushel of closers in the race. In this case, he doesn’t measure up with the others.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 15. McCraken
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Morning Line: 5-1
How he got here: Wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club and Sam F. Davis, third in the Bluegrass.
Why he’ll win: He’s three for three at Churchill Downs, so he likes the surface. His works have been strong. You can throw out his third in the Bluegrass as he was coming back after a minor injury. Strong closer.
Why he’ll lose: There are a lot of closers in the race and only one of them is going to get the perfect trip and pace scenario. He’s a good horse, but so are a lot of the others.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 14. Classic Empire
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Owner: John Oxley
Morning Line: 4-1
How he got here: Won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Arkansas Derby, third in the Holy Bull.
Why he’ll win: He might be the best horse in the race and he’s handled the big crowds by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. He overcame a troubled trip in the Arkansas Derby, so he showed class and talent in his last race.
Why he’ll lose: The horse has been unpredictable. At Saratoga, he unseated his rider out of the gate. In Florida, he refused to work twice. He needs to be in the right frame of mind or things can go poorly.
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Latest Kentucky Derby odds
Here are the odds as of 3:30 EDT for the Kentucky Derby. The morning line odds are in parentheses so you can see which horses are getting more or less action than expected.
1. Lookin at Lee (20-1) 30-1
2. Thunder Snow (20-1) 16-1
3. Fast and Accurate (50-1) 37-1
4. Untrapped (30-1) 58-1
5. Always Dreaming (5-1) 4-1
6. State of Honor (30-1) 51-1
7. Girvin (15-1) 22-1
8. Hence (15-1) 15-1
9. Irap (20-1) 38-1
10. Gunnevera (15-1) 9-1
11. Battle of Midway (30-1) 38-1
12. Sonneteer (50-1) 35-1
13. J Boys Echo (20-1) 46-1
14. Classic Empire (4-1) 7-1
15. McCraken (5-1) 7-1
16. Tapwrit (20-1) 25-1
17. Irish War Cry (6-1) 5-1
18. Gormley (15-1) 21-1
19. Practical Joke (20-1) 30-1
20. Patch (30-1) 13-1
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Kentucky Derby Field: 13. J Boys Echo
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez
Owner: Albaugh Family Stable
Morning Line: 20-1
How he got here: Won the Gotham Stakes, third in the Withers, fourth in the Delta Jackpot and Bluegrass Stakes.
Why he’ll win: If he can duplicate his performance in the Gotham, he will be a force. Has a strong trainer in Dale Romans, who knows this track.
Why he’ll lose: Losing regular rider Robby Albarado to injury is a definite negative. Like many others, the horse has late speed, so it’s likely to be crowded down the stretch.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 12. Sonneteer
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Owner: Calumet Farm
Morning Line: 50-1
How he got here: Second in the Rebel Stakes and fourth in the Arkansas Derby.
Why he’ll win: Hasn’t finished worse than fourth in his last nine races. Has a Hall of Fame jockey in Kent Desormeaux and his brother Keith is one the best least-known trainers in the country. Can use the distance.
Why he’ll lose: No maiden has won the Kentucky Derby since 1933. There are too many closers and he’s not likely one of the better ones.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 11. Battle of Midway
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owner: Don Alberto Stable and WinStar Farm
Morning Line: 30-1
How he got here: Finished second in the Santa Anita Derby.
Why he’ll win: He’s never run a bad race, having won twice and finished second and third in four starts. Jockey Flavien Prat, one of the best young jockeys, should improve on his performance on the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks. Horse is on his way up.
Why he’ll lose: Very lightly raced. Comes out of a Santa Anita Derby that had an extremely slow time.
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Track condition upgraded at Churchill Downs
The rain has stopped and the sun has come out at Churchill Downs causing the track condition to be upgraded from sloppy to muddy.
Now, that may not seem like much, but it is a testament to how well the Churchill Downs dirt surface handles water.
The upgrade was made in time for the eighth race, some four hours before the Kentucky Derby.
The guess remains that the track will end up with either a good or wet fast designation by post time, shortly before 7 p.m. EDT.
Last year, a one-hour rainstorm turned the track wet before the Derby, but the official condition was never changed from fast.
The turf course remains good.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 10. Gunnevera
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owner: Peacock Racing Stables
Morning Line: 15-1
How he got here: Won the Delta Downs Jackpot and Fountain of Youth. Second in the Holy Bull and third in the Florida Derby.
Why he’ll win: He’s one of two colts to score points in four prep races, so he’s consistent. A third in the Florida Derby was a good finish since he was in the far outside post, which on the short stretch of Gulfstream makes it difficult to win from there.
Why he’ll lose: He has to come from far back, and given the lack of pace in this race, it’s going to be difficult to pick off that many horses.
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Latest Kentucky Derby odds
Here are the odds as of 2:30 EDT for the Kentucky Derby. The morning line odds are in parentheses so you can see which horses are getting more or less action than expected.
1. Lookin at Lee (20-1) 29-1
2. Thunder Snow (20-1) 16-1
3. Fast and Accurate (50-1) 37-1
4. Untrapped (30-1) 58-1
5. Always Dreaming (5-1) 4-1
6. State of Honor (30-1) 51-1
7. Girvin (15-1) 22-1
8. Hence (15-1) 15-1
9. Irap (20-1) 37-1
10. Gunnevera (15-1) 9-1
11. Battle of Midway (30-1) 37-1
12. Sonneteer (50-1) 35-1
13. J Boys Echo (20-1) 45-1
14. Classic Empire (4-1) 8-1
15. McCraken (5-1) 7-1
16. Tapwrit (20-1) 25-1
17. Irish War Cry (6-1) 9-2
18. Gormley (15-1) 21-1
19. Practical Joke (20-1) 29-1
20. Patch (30-1) 14-1
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Kentucky Derby Field: 9. Irap
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Owner: Paul and Zillah Reddam
Morning Line: 20-1
How he got here: Won the Bluegrass Stakes.
Why he’ll win: Trainer Doug O’Neill did not think Irap would win the Bluegrass, but he got a perfect trip to break his maiden in his eighth race. Sometimes horses suddenly get better. His connections have won two Derbies in five years.
Why he’ll lose: It took him eight races to break his maiden. The horse got a perfect trip in the Bluegrass and that’s not likely in the Derby; too many horses. And the distance might be too much for him.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 8. Hence
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Calumet Farms
Morning Line: 15-1
How he got here: Won the Sunland Derby.
Why he’ll win: He was the talk of the backstretch and has become the horse of the wiseguys. Other horses coming out of the race such as Irap and Conquest Mo Money have done well.
Why he’ll lose: The wiseguy horse rarely wins. Plus, it was the Sunland Derby he won, not exactly a stepping stone to the Derby.
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Bob Baffert shares his thoughts about the Kentucky Derby
After winning the Kentucky Oaks with Abel Tasman, veteran trainer Bob Baffert was asked what he thought about the Kentucky Derby. This is an edited version of his response (Baffert does not have a horse in the Derby):
“I ask other people and everybody says, ‘I don’t know.’ It’s like the ‘I don’t know’ Derby. I think there are some nice horses in there. There’s a lot of parity. There hasn’t been a horse separate himself from the pack yet. And usually the Kentucky Derby will do that. I think a horse is going to do something [Saturday].
“I don’t know which one it is. But one of them is going to do that to get everybody chimed in. I think all the races have been pretty close. You know, you’ve got the winner of the Florida Derby [Always Dreaming], I think Todd Pletcher’s horse is really fast .... A lot of horses have to have their own way, [such as] Irish War Cry. You have got the California horses, they’re tough. McCraken is a hometown horse that you hear all these whispers.
“That’s the only thing about this week. I didn’t hear anybody whispering about Abel Tasman [winner of the Kentucky Oaks for Baffert]. I was sort of like, wait a minute, maybe I don’t have a shot. But, you know, forget the whispers. At the end of the day, the cream rises to the top.
“They have all looked really, really good. I have been watching them train. And my wife says, ‘Which one do you like?’ I said, ‘When they come by, they all look good.’
“The horse that won the Blue Grass, Irap, maybe he’s waking up. A lot of horses wake up once they start going a 1 1/8 [mile]. That starts separating those horses. At 1 1/16, they all stay together. When they start going 1 1/8, they’re real quiet. War Emblem, you remember him. When they start going that distance, that’s when the big engines kick in.”
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Kentucky Derby Field: 7. Girvin
Trainer: Joe Sharp
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Brad Grady
Morning Line: 15-1
How he got here: Won both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
Why he’ll win: He’s undefeated on the dirt in three races, and his other race was a second on the turf. He’s been working well and picks up “Big Money” Mike Smith as his jockey.
Why he’ll lose: At four races, he’s very lightly raced. He also had a problem with a quarter crack in his right front leg. Brian Hernandez Jr., his regular rider, decided to ride McCraken, so that should tell you something.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 6. State of Honor
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Owner: Conrad Farms
Morning Line: 30-1
How he got here: He was second in the Florida Derby and Tampa Bay Derby and third in the Sam F. Davis stakes.
Why he’ll win: In the Florida Derby, he held off a fast -charging Gunnevera, but still trailed Always Dreaming. He has some early speed and would need a lot of luck behind him to come out on top.
Why he’ll lose: He hasn’t won on dirt in his last four starts. All his early races have been on synthetic. One win in 10 starts does not bode well for this Canadian bred.
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Check the latest odds for the Kentucky Derby
Here are the odds as of 1:30 EDT for the Kentucky Derby. The morning line odds are in parentheses so you can see which horses are getting more or less action than expected.
1. Lookin at Lee (20-1) 29
2. Thunder Snow (20-1) 16
3. Fast and Accurate (50-1) 37
4. Untrapped (30-1) 60
5. Always Dreaming (5-1) 4
6. State of Honor (30-1) 53
7. Girvin (15-1) 22
8. Hence (15-1) 14
9. Irap (20-1) 35
10. Gunnevera (15-1) 9
11. Battle of Midway (30-1) 38
12. Sonneteer (50-1) 34
13. J Boys Echo (20-1) 44
14. Classic Empire (4-1) 8
15. McCraken (5-1) 7
16. Tapwrit (20-1) 25
17. Irish War Cry (6-1) 5
18. Gormley (15-1) 21
19. Practical Joke (20-1) 30
20. Patch (30-1) 14
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Kentucky Derby Field: 5. Always Dreaming
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owners: Brooklyn Boyz Stable, MeB Racing, Teresa Viola Racing, St. Elias Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds
Morning Line: 5-1
How he got here: Won the Florida Derby.
Why he’ll win: He was fantastic in the Florida Derby, running the fastest time since 1978 when Triple Crown winner Alydar won the race. He has won all three races since he switched barns to Pletcher.
Why he’ll lose: If he runs like he did in the Florida Derby, he won’t lose. But the other horses won’t let him get away with some of the fractions he did at Gulfstream. He may be a little short for 1¼ miles.
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Weather and track condition update from Churchill Downs
The weather in Louisville has been nothing short of terrible the past couple of days. Friday’s Kentucky Oaks was contested over a sloppy track and the strip opened for racing Saturday morning with the same designation.
According to weather.com, the chance of rain for the remainder of the day is only 15%. The sun has even snuck out a little from behind the clouds.
The guess here is that track conditions will improve to either good or wet fast by the time the Kentucky Derby goes off, around 6:45 p.m.
The turf course is listed as good.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 4. Untrapped
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Owner: Michael Langford
Morning Line: 30-1
How he got here: He finished second in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds and third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.
Why he’ll win: He’s won at Churchill Downs, in a maiden race as a 2-year-old, so he likes the surface. If the track comes up wet, bettors will give extra weight to his second-place finish in the LeComte over the slop. He also returns to his regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr.
Why he’ll lose: Hasn’t won since his maiden triumph in November. A sixth in the Arkansas Derby with Mike Smith aboard doesn’t bring confidence.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 3. Fast and Accurate
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Channing Hill
Owners: Kendall Hansen, Skychai Racing and Bode Miller
Morning Line: 50-1
How he got here: He won the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.
Why he’ll win: The owners are confident enough to have spent $200,000 to supplement him in the race. He’s also coming off three wins in a row.
Why he’ll lose: He’s not a dirt horse. He’s only run once on dirt and finished fifth. All his other races were on synthetic or turf.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 2. Thunder Snow
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Owners: Godolphin Racing
Morning Line: 20-1
How he got here: Automatic qualifier by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai.
Why he’ll win: He’s won his last three races, all graded stakes. He’s won $1,627,541, second only to Classic Empire in this field. Since he hasn’t raced in the U.S. we really don’t know how well — or poorly — he can perform.
Why he’ll lose: Foreign horses traditionally don’t do well in the Kentucky Derby. The 100,000-plus people cheering can be unnerving for a horse in a different environment.
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Kentucky Derby Field: 1. Lookin At Lee
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Owners: L and N Racing
Morning Line: 20-1
How he got here: He campaigned at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. He finished third in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Arkansas Derby.
Why he’ll win: He’s battle tested — his last six races have been graded stakes races, although he didn’t win any of them. He’s got a strong finishing kick, so the distance shouldn’t be a problem.
Why he’ll lose: The fact that he has hasn’t win a graded stakes probably puts him a cut below the other horses. The one hole is the worst on the track.
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What time is the Kentucky Derby?
The time of the Kentucky Derby fluctuates a bit every year, and you can usually count on it going off a little later than scheduled. This year, the gates are supposed to open at 6:46 p.m. in Louisville. So, doing the easy math, that’s 3:46 p.m. in Los Angeles.
But there are some other things that happen on Derby Day.
The national anthem will be performed at 5:08 p.m. (We’ll do Louisville times for these other events.) by Harry Connick Jr.
About 6:05, the horses will start their long walk (not long for a horse) from the barns to the paddock. There will be a lot of nice suits with mud on them given the weather here.
At approximately 6:31 p.m. will be the call of “Riders Up,” which is when the jockeys get on their horses.
About a minute later is the singing of “My Old Kentucky Home.”
And then, after some jogging around, comes what’s called the most exciting two minutes in sports.
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What can go wrong getting a horse to the Kentucky Derby? How about everything
The math makes no sense.
You start with about 22,300 foals in 2014. Figure about half of them are colts, so you’re down to 11,000.
Of those, the field gets cut some more at the start of their third year, when you have to pay $600 to nominate your colt — or sometimes filly — to be eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby. This year there were 418 nominations: 378 colts, 30 geldings, five ridglings and five fillies.
That puts it at 1.9% of the 2014 foals being eligible for what is almost every horse owner’s dream.
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Wide-open Kentucky Derby has everyone dreaming
The No. 1 commodity on the backstretch during Kentucky Derby week is dreaming.
Especially this week, when there is no overwhelming favorite. There are 20 scenarios to win Saturday’s race, and the one commonality is you absolutely need a good trip.
You can make a case for a lot of these horses.
The morning-line favorite at 4-1 is Classic Empire, winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Throw out his third-place finish in the Holy Bull and he’s undefeated.
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French jockey Flavien Prat rode to the top in Southern California. Now he gets his chance in the Kentucky Derby
The single camera was set up on the south side of the jockeys room at Churchill Downs. Three people from NBC were scurrying about, trying to find the right-sized stool, asking that the noise in the room subside and that the volume be turned off on the monitor behind them.
Laffit Pincay III, the affable host of most of NBC’s horse racing coverage, was going to interview the three French jockeys riding in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Julien Leparoux, the veteran at 33 and riding in his 10th Derby, and Florent Geroux, the jokester at 30 and riding in his second Derby, both flanked Flavien Prat, who despite his salt-and-pepper hair is the rookie at 24.
“I’m hoping I can get the other two to get Flavien to open up,” Pincay said to a nearby reporter.
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Trainer John Shirreffs not concerned by Gormley’s inconsistent campaign
Parents remember when their A-student brings home his first B, or, heavens, even a C. Maybe the parents react with a stern lecture or by taking away privileges or even removing the device that seems to be growing out of the child’s hand.
Rare is the parent who just views it as part of growing up. No big deal. Move along, nothing to see here.
You would be lucky to have John Shirreffs raising your kid, or in this case, your horse.
The 71-year-old trainer of Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, and the best female horse of all time, Zenyatta, has shrugged aside the uneven campaign of Gormley, his entrant in this year’s Kentucky Derby, as just part of growing up.
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Kentucky Derby draw sheds little light on which horse has the advantage
The Kentucky Derby draw for post positions did little to untangle the mess for those trying to predict the winner of the most prestigious horse race in the world.
Classic Empire, the 4-1 favorite, drew the No. 14 slot, with 5-1 second choices Always Dreaming in the 5 and McCraken the 15.
This year’s race is considered one of the closest and most difficult to handicap in years.
“When you look at it just on numbers, it’s very evenly matched,” said Doug O’Neill, trainer of last year’s winner, Nyquist. “There are a lot of nice 3-year-olds that look like they are getting better and better. But there are no freakish 2-year-olds that have continued on as a 3-year-old.”
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A kidnapped trainer, an orphaned colt and the chance of a lifetime at the Kentucky Derby
Trainer Antonio Sano never expected to be here, having escaped Venezuela after being kidnapped twice.
The same can be said about a strapping foal who became an orphan shortly after his birth when his mother dropped dead.
Yet here they are at the Kentucky Derby, looking to fulfill an impossible dream with improbable storylines.
Sano found the colt and bought Gunnevera for his clients for $16,000, mere pennies in the horse industry.
But this tale began years before that.
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It’s anyone’s guess who will win this year’s Kentucky Derby
On Sept. 17, the Iroquois Stakes was run at Churchill Downs as the first Kentucky Derby prep. It was won by Not This Time. He was retired two months later with a soft tissue injury.
Two weeks ago, Senior Investment won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland as the last Derby prep. He didn’t have enough points to qualify for Saturday’s race.
Sandwiched in between were 34 other points-bearing races that have done little to clear up the picture as to who will win the Kentucky Derby.
Last year was easy. There was even Triple Crown talk as undefeated Nyquist strolled in to Louisville, Ky., as the clear favorite. He was victorious, and it was also the last race he won.
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Arrogate runs down California Chrome to win Breeders’ Cup Classic
Horse racing has a new star.
Arrogate, a lightly raced 3-year-old, ran down California Chrome in the stretch to win the $6-million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday at Santa Anita.
The race was everything that was promised between North America’s all-time leading money winner and the upstart who had run (and won) only one Grade 1 stakes.
California Chrome broke on top and kept the lead with Melatonin by his side. Arrogate was rating nicely near the lead but not running as fast. Arrogate started to move on the far turn but Chrome still had the lead entering the stretch.
It looked as if Chrome might hold on as they approached the wire but Arrogate found another gear and sailed by to win by half a length.
Arrogate paid $5.40, $2.80 and $2.60. Chrome paid $2.60 and $2.40. Keen Ice paid $5.80 to show.
Arrogate was not ready for the Triple Crown season, running only once at Los Alamitos in April and finishing second. His next race he won at Santa Anita in June and he hasn’t stopped since.
But it was his eye-popping performance at Saratoga in the very competitive Travers Stakes that got everyone’s attention, winning by 13 ½ lengths.
Rafael Bejarano had ridden Arrogate to all his wins going into the Travers but Baffert also had American Freedom in that race and the owners wanted Bejarano to ride that horse.
Mike Smith happened to be “in the right place at the right time” and finds himself with the sport’s new superstar.
Chrome captured everyone’s heart with his humble beginning. He was the product of $2,500 breeding of Lucky Pulpit and Love the Chase. He was a California bred, the kind that the Kentucky bluebloods looked down on.
But when he won the Santa Anita Derby by a comfortable 5 ¼ lengths people started to believe in the David-vs.-Goliath story. Chrome then won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before the grind wore him down in the Belmont Stakes.
He had a disastrous 4-year-old campaign, which is pretty much why he was brought back as a 5-year-old. After losing in the Dubai World Cup, he was sent to England and Chicago without running a race.
After a long layoff he came back in January at Santa Anita, winning the San Pasqual, and he hadn’t lost until Saturday.
3-year-old wins Breeders’ Cup Classic
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Slideshow: Photos from the 2016 Breeders’ Cup races
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Tourist makes himself at home in Breeders’ Cup Mile
For the second time Saturday, a horse with multiple Breeders’ Cup starts finally broke through with a victory. And Tourist didn’t change races to make it happen.
The 5-year-old Tiznow horse was nowhere in two previous Breeders’ Cup Mile tries, but he took advantage of a Joel Rosario ride that was both patient (early) and aggressive (late) to beat defending champion Tepin by half a length.
Tourist, who had won just one of five starts (all in Grade I races) this year, returned $26.80 in what almost certainly will be the final start of his career. The final time of 1:31.71 was just .02 off the course record set last month by Vyjack.
Earlier in the day, Obviously won the Turf Sprint in his fifth Breeders’ Cup race. The previous four came in the Mile.
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Insider Tips: Classic
Always look for value in the Classic. Hoppertunity and Effinex offer it in droves. Each is 15-to-1 on the morning line. They blazed to a 1-2 finish in the Jockey Club Gold Club a month ago, which sets them up nicely to make a run at California Chrome.
If Chrome gets an easy lead, this strategy goes out the window. But Melatonin or the lightly raced Arrogate should press Chrome, allowing Hoppertunity (with 13 out of 22 starts at Santa Anita) and Effinex to come charging late.
While you’re at the windows, pick up a two-buck ticket on Chrome. If the wondrous horse wins at or near even-money, tuck it away as a souvenir.
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Insider Tips: Classic
The greatest unknown quantity of the entire Breeders’ Cup? That’s an easy one.
An anonymous three-year-old named Arrogate went off in the Travers just over two months ago at odds of 11-to-1. It was his fifth outing, first in a stakes race.
He won -- by 13 1/2 lengths. His Beyer speed figure was an astonishing 122. Now he heads into the Classic at morning odds of 5-to-2, second only to California Chrome.
Less seasoned horses have performed admirably this weekend, but Arrogate has eight fewer starts than the next less experienced contestant. That’s quite a gap.
He might be the “now” horse, but the low odds could be a reflection of the public’s over-eagerness to find a challenger for Chrome.
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Easy game for trainer Kruljac
One Breeders’ Cup start, one Breeders’ Cup win for trainer Ian Kruljac.
Finest City, a 4-year-old City Zip filly, gave Kruljac a perfect record by winning Saturday’s Filly & Mare Sprint by three-quarters of a length over defending champion Wavell Avenue.
It was only the second stakes victory for Kruljac; Finest City won the Great Lady M Stakes in April at Los Alamitos.
The winner, who returned $19.40, was ridden by Mike Smith, who had picked the “wrong” horse in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint earlier in the card, but wound up with his 24th all-time Cup victory in the “other” short-distance dirt race.
Finest City, who hadn’t run since a runner-up finish in the John C. Mabee two months ago at Del Mar, dueled three wide for the lead down the backstretch, took the lead going past the quarter pole and then held Wavell Avenue safe through the length of the stretch.
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Insider Tips: Mile
For those waiting on the possibility of earning more than pennies on the dollar with a successful wager on Tepin, now is the time to pounce.
In his six starts this year on U.S. soil, Tepin has set sail at odds of lower than 1-to-2. That means his backers collected less than $3 on a $2 win wager.
Tepin was assigned odds of 3-to-1 for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. While the number could drop, it will not approach the ridiculously short odds to which his supporters have become painfully accustomed.
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Insider Tips: Mile
Acclimation to the Santa Anita grass course had no bearing for the morning line oddsmaker with the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Five of the 14 horses have traipsed over the course, and all are longshots. Not even What A View’s 5-for-5 ledger could generate odds of better than 20-to-1.
The most attractive play among the familiarized quintet is Midnight Storm (12-to-1). He has two wins and a second in five starts.
The burden for Midnight Storm is seizing and holding the lead. He bolts out of the 13th hole, and pacesetters have yielded the lead in seven of the nine Mile stagings at Santa Anita.
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Heffernan steals Turf aboard Highland Reel
This is only the second time Seamus Heffernan has ridden in a Breeders’ Cup, but the 44-year-old Irish jockey took his rivals to school Saturday by riding Highland Reel to victory in the $4 million Turf, the second-richest race on the card.
Highland Reel ($9.60) led his rivals down the hill, running the first half-mile of the 1 1/2-mile race in a fairly rapid 48 seconds flat. He began to open up on the backstretch, running the second half-mile in an almost identical 48.16 seconds. The other jockeys let him go and were unable to catch up in the final part of the race.
Favored Flintshire wound up second, 1 3/4 lengths behind, followed by Found. Highland Reel had finished second to Found in last month’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Earlier this year Highland Reel won the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.
It was the first Breeders’ Cup win for Heffernan, but the 11th for veteran Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, including his sixth in the Turf.
The final time was 2:23, not far off the track record of 2:22.72.
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Insider Tips: Filly & Mare Sprint
Trainer Michelle Nevin is a relative newbie to the Breeders’ Cup stage. Her initiation came in 2014 when By The Moon was eighth in the Juvenile Fillies.
Now she accounts for two entrants in the Filly & Mare Turf. By The Moon returns at morning odds of 8-to-1, and Paulassilverlining looms just behind in the pre-race pecking order at 10-1.
Consistency is their hallmark. Paulssilverlining owns four wins and two places in her last seven tries, while By The Moon has been no worse than second in five of her last seven.
Nevin is an up-and-comer in her profession but might need more Breeders’ Cup experience to score.
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Inside Tips: Filly and Mare Turf
Of the 13 participants in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, seven have never set foot on the Santa Anita track in a race. Three others have circled it once, and the best finish among them was third.
If you subscribe to a home-field advantage, the options are simple. Toss out Finest City, with a place and two shows in five tries.
That leaves Gloryzapper (15-to-1), with a victory and three seconds in four outings, and Tara’s Tango (8-to-1), with eight of 13 career starts at Santa Anita. The record shows two wins and four others in the money.
If familiarity counts, Tara’s Tango could wind up in a familiar spot -- the Santa Anita winner’s circle.
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Insider Tips: Turf
The standard question before each Belmont Stakes in evaluating a horse is, can he get the 1 1/2-mile distance?
Let’s ask it for the Breeders’ Cup Turf at the same 12 furlongs. What is the likelihood of the dozen rivals having enough stamina to survive the Cup’s longest event?
Relis and Mondialiste have never traveled so far. Texas Ryano did once, finishing off the board. Ulysses triumphed in one of two tries, and Money Multiplier placed in his pair of outings.
The most seasoned at the distance, unsurprisingly, is favored Flintshire (5-2). Highland Reel has won or placed in five of seven shots and Found in four of five. Both offer short prices, so alluring options with more profitable returns are Ectot (8-1), who has a couple of wins and a second in five tries, and Big Da Hoss (20-1), who is batting .667 in six outings.
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In a switch, East dominates Juvenile
2-year-old becomes Kentucky Derby favorite
West Coast horses have won four of the last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby, but if the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Saturday is any indication, there could be a change in 2017.
Eastern horses finished in the top six places in the Juvenile, headed by Classic Empire, who held off favored Not This Time by a neck in a solid 1:42.60 for 1 1/16 miles. They were 7 1/2 lengths clear of Practical Joke in third.
The winner, ridden by Julien Leparoux for trainer Mark Casse, returned $11. Classic Empire, a son of Pioneerof the Nile (American Pharoah’s sire), won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his last start and also captured the Bashford Manor in July at Churchill Downs.
Only two previous Juvenile winners have won the Derby, but one of them was Nyquist in May. The other was Street Sense in 2010.
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Obvious winner in Turf Sprint, at least to bettors
Flavien Prat guides 8-year-old to victory
While most handicappers saw a wide-open race between 14 starters, bettors narrowed in on Obviously as post time approached for the Breeders’ Cup.
In this case, the smart money lived up to its name.
Obviously provided the first Breeders’ Cup win for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat by holding off the fast-charging Om by a long nose. Pure Sensation was third and Calgary Cat fourth.
Eventually bet down to 7-2 favoritism, Obviously returned $9.60 for the win.
It was the 13th win in 29 career starts for the 8-year-old gelding Obviously, but only his second in the last two years. He was running in the Turf Sprint for the first time after four tries in the Mile (where his best finish was third in 2012 at Santa Anita).
Only one horse older than 8 has won a Breeders’ Cup race: Calidoscopio was 9 when he won the Marathon (now discontinued) here in 2012.
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Insider Tips: Turf
Trainer Michael Stoute, teaming with jockey Frankie Dettori, crashed the Chad Brown-Aidan O’Brien party in the Filly & Mare Turf. Queen’s Trust (8-to-1) upstaged the foursome saddled up by turf specialists Brown, who sent off the favored Lady Eli as well as Sea Calisi, and O’Brien, who had the second pari-mutuals pick Seventh Heaven plus Pretty Perfect.
Part II of this story line arrives four races later with the Turf. Brown’s duo is the favored Flintshire (5-to-2) and Money Multiplier (20-to-1). O’Brien trains Found and Highland Reel, the co-second choices in the morning line at 3-to-1.
Aiming to one-up them again is Stoute and Dettori with Ulysses (12-to-1). Stoute, who claimed his seventh Cup victory today, had expressed more enthusiasm for Queen’s Trust prospects than for Ulysses’. So, history might not repeat.
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Insider Tips: Juvenile
An ultra-fast pace in the Juvenile is envisioned by TimeformUS’s Pace Projector, and it’s easy to see why.
The majority of the 11-horse field would rather run on or near the lead, which is uncommon for a 1 1/16th-mile contest. Syndergaard has been first out of the gate in all three starts. Klimt, Theory, Three Rules and Gormley have had little dirt kicked in their face.
The scenario sets up nicely for closer Practical Joke (6-to-1). Two other back-of-the-pack types are long shots who could hit the board: Lookin At Lee (20-to-1) and Term of Art (30-to-1), though the latter just broke his maiden.
Not This Time (7-to-2) charged from seventh to an easy win in his most recent race. The Dale Romans trainee would be well-advised to stick to that plan and avoid rushing to the front as he did two starts ago, even though it resulted in a 10-length win as a maiden.
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Insider Tips: Turf Sprint
The downhill turf course at Santa Anita is like no other in North America, and horses unaccustomed to it often are discombobulated.
In the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 10 of the 14 contestants are strangers to the course. Of the others, Lady Shipman struggled to a sixth as a favorite in her latest start.
Undrafted (12-to-1), meanwhile, took to the course well. He was a fast-closing third in this event two years ago, though has not traversed it since.
Needing no acclimation today are Obviously (6-to-1), with a win and two seconds in three tries. Ambitious Brew (10-to-1) is better acquainted with the course and won five weeks ago when Lady Shipman was an also-ran.
Aside from Lady Shipman, the downhill veterans are worth a look.
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Jockey decision turns out wrong in Sprint
Martin Garcia guides 3-year-old to victory
Mike Smith has won more Breeders’ Cup races than any jockey past or present, but that doesn’t mean he always makes the right decision.
Given the choice whether to ride 3-year-old Drefong or 6-year-old Masochistic in the Sprint, Smith chose the latter. On paper, it was the right choice: Masochistic was ultra-impressive in both his starts this year and was the 8-5 favorite Saturday.
Smith’s choice was Martin Garcia’s gain. The younger jockey picked up the mount on Drefong, and won his fourth Breeders’ Cup race when the 3-year-old pulled away from Smith and Masochistic. The final margin was 1 1/4 lengths, with Masochistic barely holding second over Mind Your Biscuits.
The final time was 1:08.79. Drefong returned $9.80 as the 7-2 third choice. It was his fifth straight win, including the King’s Bishop at Saratoga in his last start in August.
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Insider Tips: Turf Sprint
The morning-line odds you might have seen for the Turf Sprint contain no typographical errors. The favorite, Pure Sensation, is 5-to-1. It does not get any higher than this for the top choice.
On the other end, the longest price in the field of 14 is 20-to-1 for Calgary Cat. All of which makes the Turf Sprint perhaps the most balanced race in Breeders’ Cup history.
Dive in, handicappers. You’ll need every available minute to sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
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Insider Tips: Sprint
An arbitrary cutoff point on Beyer speed figures with the Breeders’ Cup Spring is triple digits. If you have been hitting 100 or higher consistently, you are in the picture of contenders. If 99 or below, you are cropped out.
Hence, it’s easy to eliminate two of the five longer shots. Delta Bluesman has been below 100 in his past two efforts, while Mind Your Biscuits has yet to break through into triple digits.
Limousine Liberal scored an impressive 104 last time out, but was in the mid-90s the four previous starts.
Noholdingback Bear has hit 101 in three of the past four races. Though Canadian trainer Michael De Paulo is at a career peak, he is a Breeders’ neophyte.
For the longshot lovers among us, this is a needle-in-a-haystack search.
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Queen’s Trust ruins storybook finish for Lady Eli
Lady Eli overcame tendonitis and the often-fatal laminitis just to make it back to the Breeders’ Cup, but her bid to win a second Cup race was ruined in the final yards of Saturday’s Filly & Mare Turf.
Queen’s Trust nosed out the favorite at the wire to give Europe its first victory at this Breeders’ Cup. The 3-year-old English-bred was ridden by Frankie Dettori for trainer Michael Stoute.
Queen’s Trust paid $18 after running 1 1/4 miles on turf in a fast 1:57.75. It was just her second career win but she had placed in several group stakes overseas.
Lady Eli won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf two years ago but got sick before last year’s event. She was idle for almost 14 months before returning this summer.
Avenge finished third and Seventh Heaven was fourth.
He rallies Queen’s Trust in Filly & Mare Turf
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Champagne to start Day 2 at Breeders’ Cup
Champagne Room won the first Breeders’ Cup race of Day 2, and anyone who bet on her will be able to afford plenty of the bubbly.
The 2-year-old daughter of Broken Vow was sent off at 33-1 and paid $69.20 for a $2 ticket after upsetting the field in the Juvenile Fillies.
Ridden by Mario Gutierrez for trainer Peter Eurton, Champagne Room stalked the pace set by Chandelier winner Noted and Quoted, then held off Valadorna to win by three-quarters of a length.
It was the first Breeders’ Cup win in four starts for Eurton. Gutierrez previously won the Juvenile last year aboard Nyquist.
Favored American Gal, who was expected to set the pace, broke slowly and raced wide throughout but still rallied for third.
Champagne Room won the Sorrento Stakes in August at Del Mar but finished third in the Del Mar Debutante and fourth in the Chandelier.
The winner completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.12.
In an unrelated note, Shaman Ghost was scratched earlier in the day from the Classic. Assistant trainer Keith Sweeney said he “spiked a little temperature” Friday night. The move leaves nine rivals for heavily favored California Chrome.
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Insider Tips: Sprint
With the scratch of Lord Nelson, the Sprint boils down on paper to three primary contenders, two of them old-timers and the other a young’un.
Masochistic and A.P. Indian might be 6 years old, but both have little wear on their tires. Masochistic, the morning-line favorite, has 13 starts, eight of them wins, while A.P. Indian is 11-for-17.
Millennial handicappers might side with Drefong, a 3-year-old with a mere five starts. The four wins have come by an aggregate 24 1/2 lengths, so the Bob Baffert trainee cannot be dismissed.
But taking on the two prodigious boomers is a lot to ask of the kid. With typical blazing speed overflowing in this field, the stalking A.P. Indian is a fetching play.
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Video: Thousands turn out for first day of Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita Park
A crowd of 45,763 attend the first day of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup. Video by Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times
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Insider Tips: Filly & Mare
When handicapping Breeders’ Cup races, we tend to look unkindly on entrants who have been claimed once, much less multiple times. Our thinking is, any connections that expose a horse in a claiming race must not have the Cup on their horizon.
Yet Al’s Gal (15-1) is in the Filly & Mare Turf mix after switching barns three times. The most recent claim for the 5-year-old was for $35,000 in February 2015 by sharp owner Ken Ramsey.
Mike Maker has trained Al’s Gal for most of her 26-race career. She has been stellar for six races, winning half of them and placing as runner-up in the rest.
Her claiming days are over, and the frequent barn-switching should not be held against her on Saturday.
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Insider Tips: Filly & Mare Turf
The subplot for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf race is a two-on-two matchup of the most respected grass trainer in the U.S. and his overseas counterpart.
Trainer Chad Brown of the U.S. sends out favorite Lady Eli (5-2), whose Songbird-like record shows seven wins and a place in eight outings.
The next morning-line choice is Irishman Aidan O’Brien’s Seventh Heaven (3-1), with a not-too-shabby four victories out of eight tries.
The “undercard” for each trainer could bring some separation. O’Brien’s Pretty Perfect (15-1) arrives in questionable form. Sea Calisi was switched to Brown’s barn when the French horse resettled in New York in May, and she has displayed remarkable consistency with two wins, a second and a third in four races.
The lesser of a trainer’s two entrants often upstages the star. At 8-1, Sea Calisi can carry on the tradition.
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Insider Tips: Juvenile Fillies
The key to handicapping elite-level rookie horses is finding those primed for a leap in improvement.
In the Juvenile Fillies, for example, Jamyson ‘n Ginger’s Beyer speed figure jumped from 67 to 103 for her last race. To better that number is unlikely, and she is likely to flatten out.
The Beyers of top contenders Noted and Quoted (9-to-2) and Union Strike (6-to-1) climbed 11 and 12 points, respectively.
So, consider one with more modest Beyer jumps in his latest outing. With Honors (10-to-1) went from 73 to 79, Daddy’s Little Darling (12-to-1) from 68 to 71.
Then there is Yellow Agate (8-to-1), whose Beyer dipped from 84 two races ago to 77 even though the latter was a Grade 1 win. That victorious debut was eye-opening and raises the possibility of substantial improvement from her more recent gig.
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Pick Six pool at Santa Anita could exceed $4 million
A crowd of 45,763 attend the first day of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup. Video by Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times
There’s a two-day carryover pool of $511,261 for the Pick Six at Santa Anita, which means the total Pick Six pool is expected to exceed $4 million for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card.
The Pick Six will be for races seven through 12.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic, featuring California Chrome, is Race 12 on the day.
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It’s not too early to get excited about the 2017 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar
Is it too early to get excited about the 2017 Breeders’ Cup World Championships, to be held Nov. 3-4 at Del Mar?
Not if you’re the wife of a trainer.
“Once my wife gets there, getting her out will be difficult,” trainer Mark Casse said. “A couple of years ago, I told my friends, ‘Del Mar is where, when trainers die, this is heaven.’ We love Del Mar. It’s just a beautiful place with the weather. My wife is still talking about going. I may end up getting divorced because she may not leave once we get there.”
Del Mar has worked for years to host the Breeders’ Cup, and track President Joe Harper has been at Santa Anita this weekend watching and learning. He is scheduled to be part of a meeting on Monday with Breeders’ Cup officials reviewing what went right and what went wrong this weekend.
He said everybody will enjoy the San Diego experience next year.
“I’ve always felt Del Mar would be such a unique place,” he said. “It’s San Diego. You can’t beat it.”
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Insider Tips: Juvenile Fillies
Experience? Who needs it?
The winners of Friday’s two juvenile races showed a combined five starts: Oscar Performance, first in the Juvenile Turf, had three starts, and New Money Honey, winner of the Juvenile Fillies Turf, had two.
Horseplayers should not be deterred by entrants with thin resumes in today’s pair of events for 2-year-olds.
Up next is the Juvenile Fillies with two-time starters Valdorna (5-to-1), Union Strike (6-to-1) and Yellow Agate (8-to-1). They have combined for four wins and two seconds.
Later on the card, the Juvenile includes two-race participants Gormley (5-to-1) and Theory (12-to-1), plus several who have logged three starts.
Being green can be good.