Dodgers Dugout: Will the Dodgers go with a six-man rotation?

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell and congratulations to Adrián Beltré on making the Hall of Fame.

The Dodgers signed left-handed pitcher James Paxton to a one-year, $11-million deal Monday. Of course, with Andrew Friedman collecting pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery like they are Pokémon cards, you just know Paxton had that surgery. And he did, in 2021.

He returned last season, and went 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 19 starts with Boston, giving up 93 hits and walking 33 while striking out 101 in 96 innings. He has much better career numbers and slots in as the No. 5 starter.

But his signing brings up a question: Will the Dodgers consider going with a six-man rotation this season?

Before Paxton, the fifth spot in the rotation was probably going to Emmet Sheehan, who had a 5.23 ERA in 11 starts last season. The Dodgers also have Gavin Stone and Michael Grove available to start, among others. Let’s look at the top four in the rotation:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Tyler Glasnow
Walker Buehler
Bobby Miller

Yamamoto started once a week in Japan, not every fifth day. Buehler, who should be available to pitch on or soon after opening day, is coming off an arm injury. Miller averaged less than six innings a start last season and has never thrown more than 124 innings in his pro career. Glasnow has been in the majors since 2016 and has never thrown more than 120 innings, which he did last season.

This doesn’t strike me as a rotation that is strong on endurance.

There are traditionally a lot of days off in the first month of the season. The Dodgers open with two games in South Korea (March 20-21), then start the season for real on March 28 with four games at home against St. Louis to round out March. In April, they have four off days scheduled. So, they could get away with a five-man, and at at times even a four-man rotation. But off days start getting spread further apart after that, making a six-man rotation a distinct possibility to protect arms as the postseason nears. Plus, if Clayton Kershaw comes back at midseason, you are just adding another guy whose arm will need to be protected.

Will it happen? Who knows. A lot will go into a decision like that. Do the Dodgers have a big division lead? Has the rotation been beset by injuries?

It’s just something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. They have enough pitchers to pull it off, and enough arms that need protecting that the desire to do it could be strong.

Beltré is a Hall of Famer

While we are voting for our Hall of Fame (see below), former Dodgers third baseman Adrián Beltré was elected to the actual Hall of Fame, along with Joe Mauer and Todd Helton. Beltré was named on 366 of 385 ballots (95.1%) of Baseball Writers Assn. of America members who voted. The requirement was 75%, so he was elected easily.

Which leads to the question: How did the Dodgers let Beltré get away after the 2004 season?

Beltré had perhaps the greatest offensive season in Dodger history, hitting .334/.388/.629 with 48 homers and 121 RBIs and played Gold Glove level defense. He finished second in NL MVP voting to Barry Bonds.

Beltré was a free agent after the season and had mentioned numerous times that he wanted to return. To find out why he didn’t, let’s turn back the clock to a story written by former Times Dodgers reporter Andy McCullough in 2018. Here are some key quotes:

The Dodgers owner at the time was Frank McCourt. The GM was Paul DePodesta.

Beltré: “I think it was more the GM than anything. It was a mistake on my part to show it too much, that I wanted to stay back then. They wanted to use that against me in the negotiation.

When the offseason began, Beltré hoped for a deal that lasted three or four seasons worth $8 million a year. He and his agent, Scott Boras, met with DePodesta and McCourt.

Beltré: “The conversation went well. The owner said, ‘Make sure you sign him.’ That was early November, I think, and after that I didn’t hear from them until late December. I think the GM tried to use the knowledge that he had against me.�

The Seattle Mariners offered Beltré a five-year, $64-million contract.

The Dodgers’ offer? Beltré: “The offer was half the years and very much half the money. As much as I liked L.A., as much as I wanted to stay there, I couldn’t do that.�

In January 2005, Shawn Green agreed to waive his no-trade clause and let the Dodgers trade him to Arizona.

Green: “Had they kept Adrián, I think I would have rejected a trade.�

Beltré: “I wanted to stay there forever. But it didn’t happen. But I don’t regret any move that I’ve made my career. Everything happened for a reason.�

The Dodgers went from 93-69 and NL West champs in 2004 to 71-91 and fourth place in 2005.

It’s important to note that Beltré scuffled a bit after leaving the Dodgers. Seattle wasn’t a good fit for him, as its home stadium suppressed his power. He was a league average hitter for them for five seasons, had an outstanding season with Boston, then went to Texas, where he put up Hall of Fame numbers. He will more than likely have a Rangers logo on his Hall of Fame plaque. The list of third baseman who received the most starts for the Dodgers from 2005-18, the year Beltré retired:

2005: Mike Edwards
2006: Wilson Betemit
2007: Nomar Garciaparra
2008: Blake DeWitt
2009: Casey Blake
2010: Casey Blake
2011: Juan Uribe
2012: Luis Cruz
2013: Juan Uribe
2014: Juan Uribe
2015: Justin Turner
2016: Justin Turner
2017: Justin Turner
2018: Justin Turner

Dodgers Dugout Hall of Fame

We are in the middle of our annual Dodgers Dugout Hall of Fame voting. So far, there have been more than 20,000 ballots cast, so a big thank you to all of you who have voted. It appears we will definitely have two inductees this year, and perhaps three.

There is still time to vote if you haven’t already. For a full recap of the ballot and bios of the players, go here.

To recap, you can vote for up to 12 people on the players ballot, and four on the non-players ballot, meaning you could vote for 16 people if you desire. But no more than 12 players and four non-players.

Whoever is named on at least 75% of the ballots will be elected. The 12 people receiving the fewest votes will be dropped from future ballots for at least the next two years. Active players or active non-players are not eligible.

How do you vote? For the players ballot, click here. For the nonplayers ballot, click here. Or you can email me at [email protected]. You have until Feb. 10 to vote. Results will be announced soon after that.

Here is the ballot:

Players (vote for no more than 12)

Dusty Baker
Adrián Beltré
Ralph Branca
Ron Cey
Tommy Davis
Willie Davis
Carl Erskine
Andre Ethier
Ron Fairly
Carl Furillo
Eric Gagné
Steve Garvey
Kirk Gibson
Jim Gilliam
Pedro Guerrero
Babe Herman
Frank Howard
Tommy John
Eric Karros
Davey Lopes
Rick Monday
Manny Mota
Don Newcombe
Wes Parker
Ron Perranoski
Mike Piazza
Johnny Podres
Pee Wee Reese
John Roseboro
Bill Russell
Mike Scioscia
Gary Sheffield
Reggie Smith
Don Sutton
Dazzy Vance
Zack Wheat
Steve Yeager

Non-players (vote for no more than four)

Red Barber
Buzzie Bavasi
Fred Claire
Jerry Doggett
Leo Durocher
Helen Dell
Jaime Jarrín
Peter O’Malley
Walter O’Malley
Ross Porter
John Ramsey
Stan Wasiak

Thanks for reading and taking part.

A personal note

Some of you have heard that there were massive layoffs at The Times last week, with more than 100 people losing their jobs. Many of you emailed me to make sure I was OK, and I am fortunate enough to still be here. Six Sports reporters were laid off, including our Dodgers reporter, Jack Harris, who has done several Q&A’s for this newsletter. Thank you to those who emailed. This newsletter will continue as it always has this season, perhaps a little sadder at the thought of colleagues no longer here.

And finally

A season recap for the 2023 Dodgers. Watch and listen here.