Harman in, what now for the GOP?

Election workers may finish recounting ballots in the 35th District state Senate race this week, but it will likely take much longer to sort out what the election’s outcome means for Orange County Republicans.

Huntington Beach Assemblyman Tom Harman won the Republican nomination on April 11, beating Dana Point City Councilwoman Diane Harkey by 236 votes. A recount requested by Harkey began April 19.

If nothing changes, Harman will run against Democratic candidate Larry Caballero on June 6.

Harkey had superior finances and the backing of nearly every major GOP figure in the county, and she didn’t win. If it’s a sign that the GOP establishment is out of step with party voters, it’s not a very clear one.

“I’m not sure I want to go out and say this was a message to the leadership,” Harman said. “Because of the low turnout, it’s hard to say.”

Or maybe the results show that Harman is on thin ice, since his years of service as an elected official didn’t deliver a wide margin of victory.

“This election puts Tom Harman on notice,” said Jeff Corless, president of the Orange County Young Republicans, a group that backed Harkey. “He needs to reassess his method of voting in Sacramento because he’s not voting as the people who normally would support him [would want].”

There’s no consensus on what a Harman victory says about the state of Republican politics in Orange County, but most people agree on a few points.

First, name identification ultimately ? though barely ? trumped party support.

“The first rule of politics is that it takes somebody to beat somebody,” said retired Newport Beach Assemblyman Gil Ferguson. “When you have a sitting politician or a person who’s known in the community, you can’t beat that person with money alone.”

Second, Huntington Beach was a major factor. It’s the biggest city in the district, and it’s been Harman’s base for nearly 12 years.

Third, the outcome was affected by the short timeframe of a special election and the low turnout. Harman has said he doesn’t need to try to make up with the party establishment that backed his opponent, and if they want to talk they can come to him.

Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Frank Barbaro sees that rift as an opening for his party’s candidate. He doesn’t think Harman will get much money or other support heading into the general election, and when June 6 arrives, he said, “I see a lot of people staying home.”

But Caballero must battle a 20% voter registration disadvantage ? Republicans claim nearly half the district’s voters, while the Democrats are at less than 30% ? and empty coffers.

Democrats last week sent out an urgent e-mail asking for help to raise the $6,000 Caballero needs to buy a ballot statement.

Although Barbaro said the party will pull out the stops for their candidate, he admitted, “the Democrats have nothing to write home about as far as financial capability.”

Meanwhile, whether Harman makes up with the Orange County GOP leadership may not drastically affect his political future. Contrary to Barbaro’s hopes, most observers said Harman will have the GOP behind him in the general election, whether they’re thrilled about it or not.

Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh put it plainly: “Tom Harman is the nominee of our party, and our party will support him.”

But what about in 2008, when Harman would be up for reelection? Corless said a primary challenge won’t be out of the question, but “that all depends on how he decides to vote, should he be the next senator.”

Tom Tucker, founding chairman of the GOP group the New Majority, disagreed. Some Republicans grumbled when Harman beat the establishment’s candidate to win an Assembly seat, but no one challenged him when he ran again, he said.

“He’ll finish out his career in the Senate,” Tucker said. “It’s a fait accompli in my opinion.”

As for Harkey, her political future starts now. She wasn’t able to beat a sitting state officeholder, but she came awfully close and built valuable name recognition on the way.

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