Holiday retail studies similar

Surveys show about 30% of shoppers will spend less money this year; business owners say sales are rising.Recently released results from two surveys offer similar projections for holiday spending, though the organizations that produced the studies presented the results in markedly different ways.

One set of survey results was framed as evidence of a slow shopping season. The other was portrayed as a contrast with “gloomy” predictions.

But business people around the local retail industry who were contacted for this article said they were optimistic about this year’s holiday outlook.

“Talking to our tenants, I can tell you that business this year has been good in general, and they’re looking forward to the holiday season,” said Peter Desforges, president of Wohl Investment Co., an Irvine-based real estate firm with a portfolio that includes four Costa Mesa shopping centers.

“The attitude this year has been spend, spend, spend,” Desforges said.

Survey results released Wednesday by Costa Mesa-based credit bureau Experian and the Gallup Organization indicated 68% of consumers nationwide are expected to spend the same amount of money or more this holiday season. Experian and Gallup chose to focus on the 32% of consumers who are expected to spend less money this year, and stated that overall holiday spending this year could decrease from 2004.

High fuel costs were presented as a key factor that could cause commerce to slacken.

“The people that are really being squeezed are middle- and lower-income Americans,” Gallup Organization chief economist Dennis Jacobe said.

High-end stores serving affluent customers would likely enjoy a prosperous season, Jacobe said, though he cautioned that if there is a general decrease in spending, the adverse effects of that development would eventually affect wealthier individuals.