Local politics full of action

For local GOP insiders, the special election to fill the 48th

Congressional District seat might as well be over -- they’ve already

moved on.

For a few weeks now, they’ve been talking about who’s going to run

to replace Republican state Sen. John Campbell. No matter that he

still has to either sweep the Oct. 4 primary with more than 50% of

the votes or beat the four candidates from other parties who would

proceed to a general election in December.

The primary ballot will list 17 candidates, 10 are Republican.

“It certainly looks like right now that John Campbell’s the

presumptive favorite, and I haven’t seen much activity from the other

Republicans,” said Keith Carlson, vice chairman of the California

Republican Party’s southern region. “It was all over as soon as he

announced [his candidacy].”

Wait a minute. Some voters have sent in absentee ballots, but the

election isn’t for two weeks. How can they be so sure?

“They have the benefit of polling results because they’re

constantly doing polling.... With that type of information, they’re

strategizing long term,” said Newport Beach City Councilman Tod

Ridgeway, a Republican who’s close to county GOP leaders.

With the congressional seat squared away in some minds,

speculation is rampant as to who will make a bid for the state

Senate. Huntington Beach Assemblyman Tom Harman is already formally

campaigning, and a handful of other elected officials are rumored to

be considering a run.

But so far, the GOP doesn’t seem to have found someone to rally

around, Ridgeway said.

“Anyone that has been mentioned, there are issues with or problems

with,” he said.

For example, Irvine Assemblyman Chuck DeVore just finished his

freshman year as a legislator and isn’t well known in Newport Beach,

and Laguna Niguel Assemblywoman Mimi Walters would have to move,

because she doesn’t live in the Senate district, Ridgeway said.

“It’s in a state of flux right now. We have not seen somebody

that’s ready to step up,” said Buck Johns, a Newport Beach developer

and board member of the Lincoln Club, a GOP fundraising group.

He fully expects some of the “perennial candidates” who are

disappointed in the congressional race to jump into the Senate pool

-- but by then, county Republicans will likely already have their

candidate.

“I would say that by the end of this week, there’ll be somebody

that will start to break out,” Johns said.

And then, talk will shift to filling whichever seat might be left

vacant by ascension to the Senate.

In Orange County, politics seem to move a little faster than

voters do. Maybe that’s why Johns likes it.

“It’s a fun game, isn’t it?” he said.

QUESTION

Do you think any candidate will get more than 50% of votes in the

Oct. 4 special election primary? Call our Readers Hotline at (714)

966-4664 or send e-mail to [email protected]. f7Please spell

your name and tell us your hometown and phone numbers for

verification purposes only.