News flash: Race begins

Here’s the breaking news for you: The election to replace Rep. Chris

Cox is Nov. 8.

Hold on, you didn’t know Cox already was out of Congress? You’re

thinking he still needs to be confirmed by the Senate to his

President Bush-appointed post as head of the Securities and Exchange

Commission?

All that’s old news, at least according to the nonpartisan Women

in Leadership group, which has endorsed former Assemblywoman Marilyn

Brewer in the race for Cox’s seat. An invitation to a fundraiser next

month for Brewer reads: “Marilyn is running for 48th US Congressional

Seat (vacated by Chris Cox). The election is Nov 8, 2005.”

Now, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s introduction of Cox to the

Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday was pretty laudatory, and the

Newport Beach congressman did seem to put to rest most of the

Democrats’ fears about his being too business-friendly, but still,

assuming Cox is gone may be going a bit far.

Of course, Brewer and the leadership group probably aren’t worried

about upsetting Cox or the Orange County Republican brass: State Sen.

John Campbell, after all, seems to be wrapping up those endorsements

pretty quickly.

Instead, we’re beginning to see Brewer going after her best chance

at a win: consolidating moderate Republicans and pragmatic Democrats

who would rather see a representative in the U.S. House who shares

some of their political beliefs than a more conservative GOPer

(knowing that a Democrat doesn’t have a chance).

In the case of the Women in Leadership group, the pressing

political belief is abortion rights. We’ll have to see just how big

an issue it becomes in the race.

There are some notable women on the group’s board, including

Melinda Seely, who has served as a spokeswoman for AirFair, a group

focused on stopping expansion of John Wayne Airport; consultant

Eileen Padberg; and Costa Mesa City Councilwoman Katrina Foley.

Oh, and Brewer just happens to hold the title of honorary board

member, which may explain the group’s endorsement as well as

anything.

Also, for the record, a special election to decide who would

replace Cox if he gets Senate approval hasn’t been decided yet, and

most speculation is that there will have to be a runoff when no

candidate gets more than 50% of the vote.

Campbell’s response is no raw deal

Over on the other half of the Cox race (for now), Campbell’s

campaign people responded rapidly to a poll Brewer commissioned that,

not surprisingly, had her in the race’s lead.

A quick read between the lines produces what I think is the most

interesting part of this quite interesting release.

“Flaw #2: Ballot Label,” the release reads. “The poll incorrectly

listed Campbell’s ballot title as ‘Member of State Legislature.’ As

anyone knows, the Legislature’s approval rating is at historic lows,

and Campbell’s ballot title will likely be ‘Business Owner/Senator’

or some other more favorable profession.”

So now we know why Campbell is seeking higher office. He’s tired

of being in such an unfavorable job.

OK, OK, you’re saying to yourself that being a member of Congress

isn’t any better in the public’s eye. But wait, there’s more from the

release: “In pushing people towards Marilyn Brewer, positions were

incorrectly stated. The term ‘conservative’ was never used to

describe John Campbell. He was referred to as a car dealer who is

soft on illegal immigration.”

Ouch! A car dealer. Congressman would be a step up.

More seriously, the release had these cogent numbers, which at

this point are the most substantial pieces of information upon which

to decide who is leading this (still unofficial) race:

Within Cox’s Congressional district (which includes much of but

not all the state Senate district), Campbell won the Republican

primary for his state Senate seat with 70% of the vote. In the

general election, he carried the district vote with nearly 64% of the

vote.

And I don’t think he’s done anything to alienate those voters.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (714)

966-4607 or at [email protected].