Impending cataclysm is no reason to stop enjoying life

VIC LEIPZIG AND LOU MURRAY

The National Geographic and Discovery channels have been running

specials on the topic of super volcanoes. The focus of the two shows

is the Yellowstone Caldera, which erupted violently 2.1 million, 1.3

million, and 640,000 years ago. The premise of the show is that

Yellowstone is overdue for an eruption and may about to blow again.

That’s very exciting and scary, but most geoscientists believe

that Yellowstone is in a late phase and that the tectonic plate has

already passed over the hot spot that would result in another

cataclysmic eruption. They believe the area of Billings, Mont., might

be the site of a future mega-eruption, but that it may be millions of

years before that happens. We’re going with this more conservative

view.

There is no doubt that Yellowstone, like California, is

geologically active. Interestingly, the ground beneath Yellowstone

Lake has been rising slowly on the north end, causing flooding at the

south end of the lake. Generally this type of earth movement is

associated with an impending blowout of some sort. Hence the dramatic

fear-mongering on TV, which seems to promise an eminent

super-volcanic eruption.

Maybe someday such an explosion might occur. But just when or

where or what the magnitude might be, no one can say, because

volcanoes are not that predictable.

Super volcano is not a technical term, but was coined by

television producers. Suffice it to say, the effect would be huge.

The eruption of a super volcano in the Yellowstone Caldera would bury

half the U.S. in deep layers of ash. The weight of volcanic ash would

crush buildings and kill thousands, if not millions, of people. The

ash would float into the upper atmosphere and reverse global warming

in an instant. The outcome would be a phenomenon known as volcanic

winter, similar to what would be expected following a massive atomic

explosion or gigantic meteor impact.

The ash from a super volcano would block sunlight from reaching

earth, chill the planet for decades, dramatically affect plant growth

and cause extinctions either directly or through long-term climate

change. Economies would collapse. Some scientists believe that the

ensuing years of volcanic winters from the eruption of a super

volcano would obliterate agriculture as we know it and even threaten

survival of the human race. In comparison, eruptions of regular

volcanoes cause global chilling that lasts a year or two.

The potential for a super volcanic explosion lurks much closer to

home than Yellowstone. The eastern Sierras around Mono Lake have been

erupting off and on for millions of years. This area is considered by

many experts to be the most likely place for a future eruption in

North America. If you drive to Lee Vining, like we did last week,

you’ll pass many old lava flows and cinder cones, as well as active

hot springs and steam vents.

The Long Valley Caldera was created by a gigantic eruption about

760,000 years ago. That big blowout sunk an oval depression into the

ground south of Mono Lake that was 10 1/2 miles long and 20 miles

wide. The resulting sinkhole was a mile deep. Like the Yellowstone

Caldera, the Long Valley Caldera was created by ground collapsing

into a void that had formed over hot magma. The result was a blowout

that shot 150 cubic miles of super-heated ash into the air. Fallout

of ash reached as far as south as present-day Huntington Beach, and

as far east as Nebraska. For comparative purposes, Mt. St. Helens

blew out a mere quarter of a cubic mile of ash.

With volcanic ash fallout reaching temperatures of 1,400 degrees,

all life within many miles of a super volcano blast would be

instantly annihilated. When the Long Valley Caldera blew, it covered

the surrounding area with 600 feet of volcanic ash, and the intense

heat of the blast fused the ash into a type of rock that is known as

Bishop Tuff.

Like Yellowstone, the eastern Sierras have shown signs of

impending eruption, but impending is relative when it comes to

volcanoes. A series of strong quakes associated with dome-building

shook the Mammoth Lake area in 1980. Disaster seemed imminent,

especially if you listened to the TV newscasters who make their

living by keeping the public on edge about impending disasters.

Twenty-five years later, the most noticeable effects have been a

dome-shaped bulge on the caldera floor, tree-killing carbon dioxide

seeping from the soil around Horseshoe Lake, and swarms of quakes

around Tom’s Place south of Mammoth Lake. You can read more about it

at https://lvo.wr. usgs.gov.

If you’re curious about how often and where the earth moves in

California, you can monitor the hundreds of earthquakes that occur

every week by logging on to https://quake.usgs.gov/

recenteqs/latest.htm. This site shows all the California temblors in

the last week in live time, with size, magnitude and location.

We usually log on when we feel a jolt just to see how well we

guessed the magnitude and location of the temblor. The rest of the

country laughs at us. Guess it’s a California thing.

The bottom line on end-of-the-world mega-disasters like super

volcanoes, giant meteors and nuclear winters is that they’re not very

likely to happen. We can’t stop taking care of our health, our

everyday lives or the environment just because something cataclysmic

might happen sometime in the next million years.

The best thing to do about a super volcano is not worry. Continue

protecting our environment, soak in those mineral hot springs, and

don’t be concerned about the magma below.

* VIC LEIPZIG and LOU MURRAY are Huntington Beach residents and

environmentalists. They can be reached at [email protected].