Generous helpings of rain

WEATHER TIDBITS

Water and air temps in April have been markedly cooler than what we

had the first third of January of 2003.

Some serious upwelling has occurred over the past three to four

weeks, pushing local ocean temps way down to the low 50s. This marks

the fifth consecutive year it has happened.

It’s not uncommon, however, for ocean temps to be at their coldest

in April instead of January.

Heck, it was pushing 60 degrees New Year’s Day, and here we sit at

53 to 56 in mid-April.

You can never tell what the water temperature is going to do come

April. It’s been as cold as 50 degrees in 1948 and 1974. And it’s

been as high as 75 degrees like in 1992 and 1997, both El Nino

episodes.

The only tangible fact about April’s water is that it’s a pretty

sure bet that during El Ninos the average will be noticeably above

the norm of 62.

Today at this writing, Monday, 3 p.m., we have a major storm in

progress.

It’s more like a January storm with lots of water and wind,

hammering us with up to three times above the April averages.

You know, it hasn’t really rained that many days this season, but

it was more the generous helpings we got when it did rain.

We’ve had more than 14 inches with Monday’s additional moisture.

All falling from just six storms.

So we’re sitting pretty with 14 inches compared to a minuscule 3.9

inches a year ago. Heck, we got that much the weekend of March 15

this year.

Snow is falling at the rate of two to three inches an hour above

the 4,800-foot level locally, and one to two feet could pile up

before this system pulls out of here tomorrow.

And there’s another deep low pressure trough waiting in the wings

after this one is done with us.

Just as we’re about to enter week 4 of spring here in the Northern

Hemisphere, those down in the Southern half are about to start week

No. 4 of fall, when the roaring 40s come alive and start cranking out

deep storm systems. Very much like our Hemisphere’s Gulf of Alaska.

Born mostly in the Western Pacific, these winter lows track

generally west to east. These roaring 40s storms form near New

Zealand for the most part. The wind can blow near hurricane force

over an expanse of up to a million square miles blowing up a huge

fetch, or swell.

If everything gels, then 8 to 10 days later, long interval beefy

sets begin to assault our beaches from the south (180 degrees) to the

southwest (225 degrees).

So these swells travel up to seven thousand miles or more.

The storm that affected us earlier in the week is leaving a trail

of terror in the rest of the country.

All the ingredients are there to keep this low real fat, and

you’ll hear reports of widespread severe weather.

See you next time.

* DENNIS McTIGHE is a Laguna Beach resident.