The future of O.C. Latino politics is on the ballot as 2026 races shape up
A few days after the Orange County Registrar of Voters certified the November elections earlier this month, a flurry of Democratic politicians were already turning their attention toward 2026 races.
The state Senate and Assembly contests that are quickly heating up are centered in Anaheim and Santa Ana, where the electorate is largely Latino and Democrat.
Because of that, whoever leads the June 2, 2026, statewide primary election is largely seen as the victor come that November, since Republican candidates are not expected to be competitive.
“What’s going to be determined in these races is what Latino politics will largely look like in the course of the next decade,” said Mike Madrid, author of “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy” and a senior fellow at UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology.
“The centrist Democrat model is one that’s been around since Rep. Lou Correa won seats in the Assembly and Senate during the ’90s. The new model is more left-leaning.”
In looking to continue his meteoric ascent in electoral politics, Democratic Assemblyman Avelino Valencia announced his candidacy for the 34th Senate District, a seat currently held by state Sen. Tom Umberg, who is terming out in 2026.
Valencia commented on his reasons for running, which include a desire to improve schools and build housing.
“Serving in the state Senate will give me an opportunity to make an even bigger impact on our Orange County communities,” Valencia told TimesOC. “This senate district shouldn’t be viewed as a consolation prize or a stepping stone. Our district is home to nearly one million Orange County residents, and we deserve to have a responsive, committed and effective advocate.”
Valencia bested Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente, a progressive Democrat, during a primary election in 2022 on his way to winning the 68th Assembly District. As an incumbent, he handily won reelection this November.
Through legislation, he has gained a reputation as a “good government” reformer, which has softened the edge of some of his most ardent progressive critics.
Valencia, who previously served on Anaheim City Council, pushed for a state audit of Visit Anaheim, the city’s tourism bureau, following allegations of a grafting scheme detailed in an independent corruption report he voted to commission as a councilman.
Prompted by the Andrew Do scandal, he also backed legislation requiring a majority vote from the Orange County Board of Supervisors before any discretionary funds are allocated to a nonprofit or community group.
He also championed legislation that disallows campaign funds to be used for legal defense, if a politician is convicted of certain felony crimes.
Fresh off of his narrow defeat to Republican Steve Choi in the 37th Senate District, former state Sen. Josh Newman is eyeing a return to Sacramento through the 34th Senate District.
He is proud of his existing record — from revamping textile recycling programs to chairing the Senate Committee on Education to securing funds for groups like Access California Services, which is based in Anaheim.
There are still plenty of outstanding issues, in Newman’s estimation.
“California is facing some substantial challenges around housing affordability, access to care and access to higher education,” Newman told TimesOC. “There is important work to be done, including transitioning to clean energy sources in the face of climate change.”
In order to run for the district, which is centered in Anaheim but stretches from South Whittier to Santa Ana, Newman would have to move, which has already triggered criticisms from those who see him as opposing Valencia as the Anaheim-raised “homegrown” candidate.
Newman reminds voters that he has represented areas of Anaheim before, when the old 29th Senate District overlapped with the currently drawn boundaries of the 34th Senate District.
“I’ve represented that area longer than anybody who is in the Legislature right now,” he said.
Valencia’s state Senate candidacy opened up another race for his 68th Assembly District seat that is already heating up and could prove to be more of a pitched battle over the future of O.C. Latino politics.
“There is overwhelming evidence that there is a Latino shift towards more populist politics,” Madrid said. “The question is which strain of populism will be a definitive feature of Latino politics. Orange County may be the first place we start to really see it in a way where it’s going to be contestable.”
On Thursday, Santa Ana Councilman David Peñaloza announced his campaign for Valencia’s Assembly seat. He already counts the backing of Valencia, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Santa Ana Mayor Valerie Amezcua.
His campaign has started off with an economically focused message.
“We’ve seen how many Californians are fleeing the state for economic reasons,” Peñaloza told TimesOC. “The quality of life has also declined in the last 10 years. A sense of safety is just not there. That’s broken for many working families in the state.”
In the past six years on Santa Ana City Council, Peñaloza has taken a moderate tract on issues concerning development, police, homelessness and crime in the city.
“My focus has been how can we, at the same time, make life less expensive for residents in Santa Ana but also safe,” he said. “I’m a big proponent of parks and libraries. At the same time, people are upset that we are opening up these new amenities because of safety concerns. It’s a revolving circle of issues that our community has to deal with.”
Peñaloza may face off with his Santa Ana City Council colleague Jessie Lopez, who is said to be a potential candidate in the race.
When reached by phone, Lopez stated that she is taking a “strong look” at the Assembly district, but hasn’t announced any run.
As a councilwoman, Lopez has a record of backing progressive policies geared toward Santa Ana’s working class residents, from rent control to eviction protections to supporting direct economic assistance to residents during the pandemic.
Lopez beat a recall election last year, in which she was outspent 8-1 by her opponents.
She also won reelection to Santa Ana City Council in November, edging out a victory in Ward 3, the city’s most moderate electorate.
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