That extra dab of guacamole on your burrito could cost more because of new tariffs
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- Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico are scheduled to go into effect on Tuesday
- Californians are among the nation’s largest consumers of Mexican avocados, tequila and beer, and should expect to see price increases.
That extra dab of guacamole on a burrito is likely to cost more in coming days.
President Trump’s new tariffs, if they go into effect on Tuesday as scheduled, are expected to increase the price of Mexican avocados, beer and tequila — all very popular imports among Californians.
The state’s business owners and consumers expect costs and tabs to spike.
“We’re bracing,” said Luis Navarro, the owner of two Mexican restaurants in Long Beach named after his late mother, Lola. “Immediately, we started trying to figure out what our reaction was going to be because we’re going to be directly impacted. [And] we sell a lot of tequila.”
Alcohol and produce sellers urged Navarro to place orders before Saturday, when Trump’s 25% tariff increase on Mexican imports was initially expected to go into effect.
The tariffs were first proposed in early February and then delayed for 30 days on Mexican and Canadian imports in response to concessions from the two nations on immigration issues. Trump ordered the tariffs to take effect on Tuesday because of the continued influx of drugs, notably fentanyl, across American borders, the president said last week.
“We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Thursday.
On Monday, Trump reiterated that the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods would go into effect as planned.
Even before the tariffs took effect, prices started rising.
The wholesale cost of a crate of 48 large avocados increased from $75 to $85 last week, said Navarro.
He worried that he will have no choice but to raise the prices on his enchiladas Suizas, which are garnished with a fan of avocado slices, as well as his spicy watermelon margaritas and Mexican mules.
“Modelo Especial is the No. 1 selling beer in the restaurants. All of the avocados we get, all our dried chiles and our beans, a lot of that stuff is coming from Mexico. It’s a tough one,” Navarro said, adding that these cost increases occur in the aftermath of pandemic shutdowns, inflation, minimum-wage increases and growing insurance costs.
Restaurant chains may be more likely to weather the increased costs than mom-and-pop outfits.
Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said the fast-casual Mexican restaurant does not currently plan to raise its guacamole prices, though he cautioned that this may change depending on how long the tariffs remain in effect.
“We don’t think it’s fair to the consumer to pass those costs off to the consumer, because pricing becomes permanent,” he told “NBC Nightly News” on Sunday. “That’s our intent this year. Let’s hold pricing constant, because we don’t know if the tariffs are transitory, if they’re going to be permanent, how sticky they’ll be in the new administration.”
In 2024, Mexico exported $505.9 billion of goods to the United States, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Top exports include vehicles, machinery and produce, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. In addition to avocados, other top agricultural imports include tomatoes, strawberries, raspberries and peppers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Economists with the Brooking Institution think tank have predicted that the tariffs will reduce the United States’ gross domestic product, employment, wages and exports while increasing inflation, particularly if Mexico responds with retaliatory tariffs.
Californians are the nation’s top consumer of Mexican avocados, importing $602 million of the Hass varietal in the 2023-24 fiscal year, according to a report by Texas A&M professors for the Mexican Hass Avocado Import Assn.
Beyond being mashed to create guacamole, avocados have become an American culinary staple because of their creamy texture and healthy fat and fiber content — exemplified by the ubiquity of avocado toast on Southland brunch menus.
Per-capita consumption in the United States has grown from 1.5 pounds in 1998 to more than 9 pounds in 2023, according to a University of Florida report. And while American farmers once grew nearly all of the avocados consumed here, nine out of 10 avocados currently consumed in this country are imported from Mexico, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“Americans consume a lot of avocados, and virtually all of the avocados we consume come from Mexico,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston who focuses on public policy in Latin America.
He said that while costs will certainly increase, the amount will depend on how much exporters, importers, wholesalers, retailers and grocers absorb the extra cost.
“The idea of tariffs often sounds good in the abstract for many Americans, the idea of protecting United States industries and protecting the United States from foreign competition,” Jones said. “Avocados provide a concrete example — when you have tariffs, consumers pay more for the goods and services they consume.”
First Step Fitness gym owner Javier Torres, 33, said potential price spikes will affect his life for two reasons — his work as a personal trainer, since he urges his clients to eat avocados because of their nutritional content, and his Mexican roots.
“This will affect every aspect of my life, in the sense of what we eat and how we eat, and what we’ve been eating forever,” said Torres, a Long Beach resident.
The tariffs, depending on how long they remain in place, could affect the price of other produce later in the year because of the growing seasons in different locales, such as berries. More immediately, they will affect Mexican beer and tequila; the latter can be only produced from blue agave plants in the state of Jalisco and a handful of other swaths of Mexico.
Americans are the largest consumers of tequila, and Californians drink the most — roughly 6.3 million 9-liter cases in 2023, according to Statista, which tracks market and consumer data.
Chris Swonger, president and CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council, said that while they support Trump’s efforts to secure the border, crack down on fentanyl, increase American manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, the tariffs will have a disproportionate effect on his industry because of its unique nature.
“You can’t make tequila in the United States,” he said.
The council has been working with its counterparts in Mexico and Canada to try to stop a trade war over liquor exports, Swonger said. He added that tariffs on tequila and Canadian whiskey likely would result in reciprocal tariffs that harm American craft distillers, whose numbers have increased exponentially in recent decades, including in California.
“If we get caught in a tit-for-tat trade dispute with tariffs, it will have a significant impact,” Swonger said. “It will impact American consumers — it will have an impact on prices.”
Brad Sims, 52, an engineering consultant, said he’s most concerned about how the tariffs affect the price of tequila. The Republican said he voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024 because of his economic views despite disliking the president.
“I don’t need him to be my moral compass. I don’t need him to be my pastor. I’m more concerned about things that affect me personally, selfishly — taxes, inflation,” Sims said. “And if he can help control those, I’ll be happy. But it remains to be seen at this point.”
Sims made the comment while he was lunching with Matt Troyka, a Democrat who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024.
Despite their differing political views, the Long Beach residents said they viewed the tariffs as a strategic effort by Trump to force concessions from the nation’s largest trading partners.
“I think there’s a lot of positioning, a lot of posturing,” said Troyka, a 52-year-old marketer for food companies. “He probably knows that it’s not a good idea long term.”
While Troyka said he would be irked if he sees an extra charge for guacamole, it comes at a time where many costs have increased.
“Everything’s going up,” he said.
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