Column: Good news for Gavin Newsom — California is no longer the place it was in 2003
A lot has happened in 18 years. A war in Iraq. Two impeachments. Four presidents. Five “Pirates of the Caribbean†movies.
And here we are again facing a gubernatorial recall election, the second in California history and only the fourth attempted anywhere in the U.S. (It hasn’t been officially certified. But a fall referendum on the future of Gavin Newsom seems about as certain as the water supply dwindling between now and September.)
California is a much different place than it was in 2003, the last time voters decided whether to give the state’s chief executive the heave-ho.
The population is older than it was, housing costs are higher, and millions more people live here. (Exodus, schmexodus.) Perhaps most significant, California has become considerably more Democratic.
Every election is different. So, too, are the roots of the two recall efforts.
The election of those celebrities were an exception. In California, political experience tends to win.
Democrat Gray Davis was blamed for mishandling an electricity crisis that, it turns out, was caused in good part by profiteers and corrupt Texas energy traders. (It didn’t help that Davis was not particularly well liked to begin with and was only grudgingly awarded a second term.)
Newsom’s circumstances are different. He was elected in a landslide and stood on politically solid ground until lockdowns and the upheaval caused by COVID-19 catalyzed efforts to force a vote on the Democrat’s performance a year ahead of the regularly scheduled 2022 election.
One constant: The French Laundry restaurant is still catering to the rich and epicurean, as it did 18 years ago, though no one cared back then if a politician showed up for a masks-off birthday party. Newsom’s ill-considered November visit is what pushed the languishing recall drive into high gear.
Here’s a statistical snapshot of California then and now, showing how much the state has changed since the last recall election. Some figures are for 2019 or 2020, the last years for which complete data are available.
A shoutout to folks at the state Department of Finance for their research assistance.
Population
2003: 35 million
White non-Latino, 45%; Latino 34%; Asian American/Pacific Islander, 12%; Black non-Latino, 6%
2021: 40 million
White non-Latino, 38%; Latino 40%; Asian American/Pacific Islander, 14%, Black non-Latino, 6%
Median age
2003: 34
2021: 38
Median age of mothers having their first child
2003: 28
2021: 31
Registered voters
2003: 15 million
44% Democratic, 35% Republican, 21% no party preference/other
2021: 22 million
46% Democratic, 24% Republican, 30% no party preference/other
Governor
2003: Gray Davis, Democrat (reelected in November 2002 with 47% of the vote)
2021: Gavin Newsom, Democrat (elected in November 2018 with 62% of the vote)
Statewide elected officials (8 total)
2003: 7 Democrats, 1 Republican
2021: 8 Democrats, 0 Republicans
U.S. House delegation (53 members)
2003: 33 Democrats, 20 Republicans
2021: 42 Democrats, 11 Republicans
State Senate (40 members)
2003: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans
2021: 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans
State Assembly (80 members)
2003: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans
2021: 58 Democrats, 19 Republicans, 1 independent, 2 vacancies
Economic ranking, worldwide
2003: 7th largest
2019: 5th largest
Unemployment
2003: 6.9%
2020: 10.2%
Median sale price for existing homes
2003: $371,520
2020: $659,380
Minimum wage
2003: $6.25 an hour
2021: $14 an hour ($13 for businesses with 25 or fewer employees)
Median household income (adjusted for inflation)
2003: $60,978
2019: $73,226
Average price of gasoline
2003: $1.83 a gallon
2020: $3.05 a gallon
Average commute time
2003: 27 minutes
2019: 31 minutes
Biggest corporations (Fortune 500, by annual revenue)
2003: ChevronTexaco; Hewlett Packard; McKesson; Safeway; Wells Fargo
2020: Apple; Alphabet (Google); Chevron; Wells Fargo; Intel
Efforts to oust the Democratic governor amount to a revolt by discontented conservative state residents.
Oscar for best picture
2003: “Chicagoâ€
2021: “Nomadlandâ€
Biggest domestic box-office hit
2003: “Finding Nemo,†$339,714,184
2021: “Godzilla vs. Kong,†$90,300,000 (through Sunday)
Grammy, song of the year
2003: “Don’t Know Why,†Norah Jones
2021: “I Can’t Breathe,†H.E.R.
The attempted recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom will go before voters on Sept. 14. Here are the details.
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