Oscar nominations predictions for all 24 categories

Jan. 18, 2019 3 AM PT

Oscar nominations arrive Tuesday and with them the annual outpouring of elation and anger, thanks and fury, the creation and perpetuation of hashtags and a rampant misuse of the word “snub.”

“Roma” could become the first Netflix movie nominated for best picture. “Black Panther” might transform Marvel into an Oscar powerhouse. Bradley Cooper could earn nominations for producing, directing, co-writing and acting in “A Star Is Born.” Alfonso Cuarón could go one step better, picking up five nods as a producer, director, writer, cinematographer and co-editor on “Roma,” a movie that will also be nominated for foreign language film.

And roughly three decades after “Do the Right Thing,” Spike Lee might finally earn his first directing nomination, for “BlacKkKlansman.”

As for potential flash points: A year after Greta Gerwig became the fifth woman nominated as a director, that number is unlikely to increase. And after seeing four women nominated for writing in 2018, this year that figure will probably be cut in half. The acting nominees will also likely remain barely inclusive, keeping #OscarsSoWhite relevant.

Here’s how the nominations look to shake out.

BEST PICTURE

“BlacKkKlansman”

“Black Panther”

“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“The Favourite”

“Green Book”

“If Beale Street Could Talk”

“Roma”

“A Star Is Born”

“Vice”

On the bubble: “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “If Beale Street Could Talk”

On the cusp: “First Man”

The academy has never nominated more than nine movies since adopting, in 2011, its current, complicated voting system that allows for a variable roster of five to 10 best picture nominees. So I’ll stop this list at nine, and I wouldn’t be surprised if only eight make the cut.

I still find it difficult to believe that a movie as bad as “Bohemian Rhapsody” could be among the films Oscar voters designate as the very best the year had to offer. But I’m also floored that, just a year into the widespread phenomena of #MeToo and Time’s Up, academy voters might also decide to celebrate a cheesy, hugely fictionalized biopic that’s directed by Bryan Singer, who was fired from the production and has long been dogged by allegations of sexual misconduct (though he has consistently denied the charges and none has resulted in judgment against him).

When the film won two Golden Globes earlier this month, no one deigned — or dared — to mention Singer’s name from the stage. Academy voters who reveled in the movie’s unapologetic nostalgia might make a similar stand for compartmentalization.

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DIRECTOR

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

Adam McKay, “Vice”

On the bubble: McKay

On the cusp: Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Cooper, Cuarón, Lee and McKay were Directors Guild nominees, as was “Green Book” helmer Peter Farrelly. But the academy’s directors branch voters usually sub in at least one person, and the highly regarded Lanthimos feels like the most likely candidate. (Other possibilities: Jenkins or “Black Panther” director Ryan Coogler.)

LEAD ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

On the bubble: Aparicio

On the cusp: Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”

The SAG Award-nominated Blunt is practically perfect; “Poppins” is not. It’s also not the type of film that the still male-dominated actors branch is going to wholeheartedly embrace. That opens the door to Aparicio, the astonishing newcomer whose extraordinary empathy gives “Roma” its heart.

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LEAD ACTOR

Christian Bale, “Vice”

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

On the bubble: Washington

On the cusp: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”

Hawke’s career-best work as the lost, tormented priest in “First Reformed” should be a sure bet here. But there’s serious concern that not enough people saw or particularly liked the Paul Schrader drama (“what’s with that ending?” is a question I’ve heard multiple times), which could catapult the talented Washington into the nominees. Willem Dafoe also has a shot for his turn as Vincent Van Gogh in “At Eternity’s Gate.”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, “Vice”

Claire Foy, “First Man”

Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Emma Stone, “The Favourite”

Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

On the bubble: Foy

On the cusp: Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots”

Foy was excellent in a limited role in “First Man,” but the film has underperformed this awards season, and some saw her part as yet another Wife of a Great Man character. There’s no shortage of candidates — Robbie, Nicole Kidman (“Boy Erased”), Michelle Yeoh (“Crazy Rich Asians”) — to take her place. And who knows … maybe voters will nominate Blunt, not for “Poppins” but for her powerful, near-silent and also SAG-nominated turn in “A Quiet Place.”

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Timothée Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”

Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”

Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”

Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

On the bubble: Chalamet

On the cusp: Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

“Beautiful Boy” arrived to middling reviews and an indifferent audience, but the force of Chalamet’s harrowing performance seems to have left him assured of a second consecutive nomination. And while Rockwell’s good ol’ boy depiction of George W. Bush made for clever fun, it feels insubstantial compared with Driver’s layered performance as undercover cop in “BlacKkKlansman.” If Rockwell gets in over Steven Yeun (“Burning”), Brian Tyree Henry (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) or Michael B. Jordan (“Black Panther”), it will have been a good day for “Vice,” but something of a travesty for this category.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

“Black Panther,” Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole

“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins

“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

On the bubble: “A Star Is Born”

On the cusp: “Leave No Trace,” Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

My gut tells me that the heartbreaking suspense tale “Leave No Trace” pulls an upset and earns a nomination … but over what? I’d guess “A Star Is Born,” which would effectively cripple the chances of Cooper’s remake winning best picture. Over the past half-century or so, only two movies have won the academy’s top prize without a screenplay nomination — “The Sound of Music” and “Titanic.” But I’m not ready to consign “Star” to also-ran status just yet.

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Eighth Grade,” Bo Burnham

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly

“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón

“Vice,” Adam McKay

On the bubble: “Eighth Grade”

On the cusp: “First Reformed,” Paul Schrader

Acclaimed indie studio A24 has two great movies — “Eighth Grade” and “First Reformed” — but probably only one will make it in, as the other four spots will likely go to movies nominated for best picture. Schrader wrote “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull” and “The Last Temptation of Christ.” None of those screenplays earned an Oscar nomination. It might be his bad luck that he continues to go unrewarded. Final note: Watch out for “A Quiet Place.” It has a lot of fans (and a Writers Guild nomination) and could surprise.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal

“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan

“First Man,” Linus Sandgren

“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón

“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

On the bubble: “Cold War”

On the cusp: “If Beale Street Could Talk,” James Laxton

Two gorgeous black-and-white movies — “Roma” and “Cold War” — should find favor. Cuarón would become the first director nominated for shooting his own film.

COSTUME DESIGN

“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter

“Bohemian Rhapsody,” Julian Day

“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell

“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell

“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

On the bubble: “Mary Queen of Scots”

On the cusp: “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” Colleen Atwood

Powell owns 12 nominations and three Oscars (“The Young Victoria,” “The Aviator,” “Shakespeare in Love”). She’ll probably add a pair of nods to her haul for the eye-popping “Poppins” costumes and her monochromatic creations for “The Favourite.” With nominations from the Costume Designers Guild and the British Film Academy, it would also appear that voters are stone-cold crazy for the androgynous glam style of “Bohemian Rhapsody.”

FILM EDITING

“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown

“First Man,” Tom Cross

“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough

“A Star Is Born,” Jay Cassidy

“Vice,” Hank Corwin

On the bubble: “BlacKkKlansman”

On the cusp: “The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Four best picture nominees, plus Oscar-winner Cross for his intricate editing of “First Man.”

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Vice,” Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaney, Greg Cannom and Chris Gallaher

“Black Panther,” Joel Harlow, Camille Friend and Ken Diaz

“Mary Queen of Scots,” Jenny Shircore

On the bubble: “Mary Queen of Scots”

On the cusp: “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Jan Sewell and Mark Coulier

Last year, this Oscar went to the team who transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. Christian Bale’s metamorphosis is no less striking in “Vice.” Will history repeat itself for movies about history?

ORIGINAL SCORE

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard

“Black Panther,” Ludwig Göransson

“First Man,” Justin Hurwitz

“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell

“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat

On the bubble: “BlacKkKlansman”

On the cusp: “Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman

I mentioned earlier that Lee has never been nominated for director. Neither has his longtime composer, Blanchard, whose electric guitar-heavy score for “BlacKkKlansman” ranks with his finest.

ORIGINAL SONG

“All the Stars” from “Black Panther,” Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solana Rowe and Al Schuckburgh

“Girl in the Movies” from “Dumplin’,” Dolly Parton and Linda Perry

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman

“I’ll Fight” from “RBG,” Diane Warren

“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born,” Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

On the bubble: “Girl in the Movies”

On the cusp: “Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman

In a category dominated by the inevitable winner, “Shallow,” the biggest question comes down to which “Poppins” song will be nominated. (Or could both make it in? Or neither, which happened at the Golden Globes.)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler and Jay R. Hart

“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton

“First Man,” Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas

“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre and Gordon Sim

“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero and Bárbara Enrı́quez

On the bubble: “Black Panther”

On the cusp: “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock

Craig and Pinnock have four Oscars between them and could knock out the “Black Panther” team, which has racked up a good many critics groups prizes.

SOUND EDITING

“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker

“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan

“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van Der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

“Ready Player One,” Gary Rydstrom and Richard Hymns

“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

On the bubble: “Ready Player One”

On the cusp: “A Star Is Born,” Alan Robert Murray

SOUND MIXING

“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Casali, Paul Massey and Tim Cavagin

“First Man,” Mary H. Ellis, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Ai-Ling Lee

“A Quiet Place,” Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor

“Roma,” José Antonio Garcia, Skip Lievsay and Craig Henighan

“A Star Is Born,” Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Jason Ruder

On the bubble: “Bohemian Rhapsody”

On the cusp: “Black Panther,” Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin

These two categories don’t always overlap, with music-heavy movies sometimes figuring more prominently in the mixing category. (The editor collects the film’s sounds, including dialogue and effects; the mixer determines how the audience hears those sounds.) So sub in “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “A Star Is Born” for mixing, though “Black Panther” could show up in both categories.

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Avengers: Infinity War,” Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick

“Black Panther,” Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack and Dan Sudick

“First Man,” Paul Lambert, J.D. Schwalm, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles

“Ready Player One,” Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk

“Solo: A Star Wars Story,” Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy

On the bubble: “Solo: A Star Wars Story”

On the cusp: “Welcome to Marwen,” Kevin Baillie, Dave Asling, Seth Hill and Marc Chu

“Black Panther” didn’t make the cut with the Visual Effects Society but should bounce back here.

ANIMATED FEATURE

“Incredibles 2”

“Isle of Dogs”

“Mirai”

“Ralph Breaks the Internet”

“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

On the bubble: “Mirai”

On the cusp: “Early Man”

Arriving in June, “Incredibles 2” has the advantage of being seen by the most voters. But thanks to its great reviews and the heat from its awards season prizes, “Spider-Man” is quickly making up ground.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Free Solo”

“Minding the Gap”

“RBG”

“Three Identical Strangers”

“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”

On the bubble: “Minding the Gap”

On the cusp: “Of Fathers and Sons”

The box office success of the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic “On the Basis of Sex” makes Julie Cohen and Betsy West’s documentary about the Supreme Court justice all the more likely to win this Oscar.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Capernaum”

“Cold War”

“The Guilty”

“Roma”

“Shoplifters”

On the bubble: “The Guilty”

On the cusp: “Never Look Away”

Outside of “Roma,” “Cold War” and, probably, “Capernaum,” all bets are off. Hirokazu Kore-eda’s Palme d’Or winning film “Shoplifters” and Lee Chang-dong’s “Burning” are critical favorites, but both could be left out with voters gravitating toward more straightforward fare, like the thriller “The Guilty,” which won the Audience Award last year at Sundance.

ANIMATED SHORT

“Age of Sail”

“Bao”

“Bilby”

“Lost and Found”

“Weekends”

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“Black Sheep”

“Period. End of Sentence”

“63 Boycott”

“Women of the Gulag”

“Zion”