Oscar Watch: 'The Big Short' holds an early lead over its December rivals

Dec. 14, 2015 12:15 PM PT

Oscar Watch, charting the smiles, the frowns, the ups and downs of the awards season, comes to you every Monday from now through the end of February.

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"Joy," "The Hateful Eight" and "The Revenant" were the last three would-be Oscar contenders to screen for critics in 2015.

Each came from a filmmaker whom the academy has lavished with Oscar love over the years. "Joy," the Jennifer Lawrence-topped story of a striving young entrepreneur, came from David O. Russell, a five-time nominee as a writer and director. Russell's last three films -- "The Fighter," "Silver Linings Playbook" and "American Hustle" -- earned best picture nominations too.

Quentin Tarantino, writer and director of the chamber western "The Hateful Eight," has won two Oscars and been nominated for three others.

And Alejandro G. Inarritu won three Oscars last year as a writer, director and producer of "Birdman." He hopes to add to that total with his latest film, the bloody revenge western, "The Revenant."

Now that the movies have been seen, though, it's another December movie -- "The Big Short," a jaundiced look at the 2008 financial meltdown -- that's vacuuming up all the awards and nominations. Its director? The guy behind "Talladega Nights" and the "Anchorman" movies, Adam McKay.

Can "The Big Short" continue its surge and win big with the academy? Oscar Watch, charting the awards season every Monday from now through the end of February, looks at its current standing as well as the fortunes of the other three December films.

"The Big Short"

"The Big Short" took in $720,000 in eight theaters over the weekend, producing the year's second-best per-screen average. The movie will open wide on Dec. 23, hoping to do better than the film with the year's best per-screen opening -- "Steve Jobs."

The marketing for McKay's movie can trumpet a bevy of nominations. The SAG Awards put the movie, which stars Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, Christian Bale and Brad Pitt, up for best ensemble and gave Bale a supporting nod. The movie earned four Golden Globe nominations as well -- best picture comedy, lead acting honors for Carell and Bale and a screenplay nod for McKay and Charles Randolph.

Of the four December contenders, "The Big Short" has an edge in its topicality. It illuminates, with clarity and righteous anger, how the subprime mortgage bubble caused the economy to collapse in 2008 and why it might very well happen again. That social currency counts a lot with academy members. This is a movie to watch.

"The Revenant"

Leonardo DiCaprio seems a pretty sure bet to win his first Oscar for his mostly silent turn as a long-suffering, bear-battling frontiersman out for revenge in "The Revenant." DiCaprio's work here is as much about what he seemed to endure as the performance itself, which mostly alternates between abject terror and somber determination. It's not his most nuanced turn, but there doesn't yet seem to be another lead actor that voters will rally around.

Some critics have griped that the movie is more style than substance. When that style is as accomplished as what Inarritu delivers here, such complaints feel like nitpicking. "The Revenant" seems to be well on its way to earning Oscar nominations for picture, director and cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki, who will look to make history by winning his third consecutive Academy Award.

"Joy"

The Broadcast Film Critics Assn., a group made up mostly of junket media, casts a wide net, handing out film awards in 28 categories. Can't find a seat at the big kids' table for best picture? No problem. There are also awards for best comedy, best acting ensemble, best action movie, best comedy and best sci-fi/horror movie.

"Mad Max: Fury Road" found favor in three of the picture categories. "Joy" was nominated only for best comedy. And this from a group that justifies its existence by advertising how its choices often mirror the Oscars.

Not good.

Lawrence seems to be the movie's best bet, and she too could be on shaky ground if academy members decide to elevate Rooney Mara ("Carol") and Alicia Vikander ("The Danish Girl") from supporting to lead.

"The Hateful Eight"

Academy members turned out in strong numbers for Tarantino's western last week. Its chances of landing a best picture nomination are iffy, but the movie should score Oscar nods for Tarantino's screenplay, Ennio Morricone's score, Robert Richardson's cinematography and Jennifer Jason Leigh's gritty supporting turn.

And I'd put it in hair and makeup too, if only for this.

Twitter: @glennwhipp

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