After the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. vote earlier this month, I heard from a few readers who were either upset or amused — sometimes both — that the group cited four women for lead performance and four men in supporting. LAFCA went to gender-neutral categories for acting in 2022, a move that in itself still rankles people. And some were now surmising that we had engineered a vote that would promote women and diminish men, in the process making some kind of statement, though they weren’t clear on exactly what that was.
Critics groups’ choices can, in fact, sometimes be statements. But critics also tend to be a little challenged when it comes to math — that’s why we got into writing and not, say, accounting or chemistry — so the idea that we could manage in real time to keep a running track of point totals in these categories and pull off a calculation like this is silly. Really, it simply confirms what we’ve known for months: The lead actress category is stacked this year. And there’s not enough room for all the women deserving an Oscar nomination.
The women LAFCA lauded — Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”) won, with Demi Moore (“The Substance”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) finishing as runners-up — make a good set of starters, but only Madison figures as a sure thing to earn an Oscar nod. So let’s sift through the category and see if we can make sense of how it might shake out.
Madison has been sweeping through the critics group prizes for her portrayal of Ani, the feisty sex worker in “Anora,” and understandably so. The way Madison leans into Ani’s audacity while revealing the fragile façade, the vulnerabilities and self-deception lurking underneath, is phenomenal. Put her at the head of the class for now, though it’s early and, as I mentioned, the competition is formidable.
Of all the contenders, Cynthia Erivo stars in the most widely seen movie, and “Wicked” owes its emotional resonance to her performance as Elphaba, the reserved, gifted young outcast trying to hone her magic. The movie finds its spell in the scene where Erivo dances alone, taking the pettiness being directed toward her and transforming it into strength and power. I suspect the academy’s actors branch will reward her for lead and co-star Ariana Grande in supporting. Their teamwork made the dream work.
Critics haven’t been particularly kind to “Maria,” which stars Angelina Jolie as legendary opera singer Maria Callas. Following “Jackie” and “Spencer,” it’s Pablo Larraín’s latest look at a famous woman imprisoned by image, and, as gorgeous as it is thanks to cinematographer Edward Lachman, it’s the least interesting of the bunch. “Callas could sing three octaves, but the film is mostly one note,” Times film critic Amy Nicholson wrote. But the biopic genre has always been catnip to voters, and Jolie has the talent — and the patience — for working rooms. And Netflix has a history of earning nominations for actors in middling movies, including Annette Bening for “Nyad” and Colman Domingo for “Rustin” just last year. It’s hard to bet against her.
Nicole Kidman, like Jolie, knows how to campaign, and with “Babygirl” she has a provocative and daring movie that allows her to explore desire with the kind of fearlessness we’ve seen from her countless times over her career. Playing a corporate CEO embarking on an affair with an intern, Kidman makes her character’s journey to self-discovery surprising, illuminating and, often, quite funny. I’m not exactly objective here, as we’ve known each other for some time. But I can recognize work that will connect with academy members.
Karla Sofía Gascón was one of the quartet from the “Emilia Pérez” ensemble (along with Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz and Zoe Saldaña) recognized at Cannes for best actress when the film premiered at the festival. At the time, it felt like an Oscar nomination was a fait accompli, and it still does. Gascón leans into the juicy titular role of a Mexican cartel boss looking to transition to a woman. She has fun with all the melodrama but also grounds “Emilia Pérez” with a complex authenticity owing, in part, to her own life as a trans woman.
That’s five. But is it the five?
At the outset, I mentioned the L.A. Film Critics’ choices. Jean-Baptiste also won lead actress honors from the New York Film Critics Circle, and I’d expect her to win with the National Society of Film Critics next month. Six of the last seven women to win honors from both the New York and Los Angeles groups went on to earn an Oscar nod. The exception? Sally Hawkins, who, like Jean-Baptiste, starred in a Mike Leigh movie. And “Happy-Go-Lucky” was much more accessible than the piercing “Hard Truths.” I want to believe. I voted for her, after all. But she faces a more difficult path.
So does Torres, superb as a mother holding her family together after a repressive regime takes her husband away in Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here.” Torres is onscreen for nearly the entire running time of the film, and the restrained power of her work is unforgettable.
Our panel of film experts is back to predict what contenders will be getting Oscar attention and to spotlight the films and talent they hope don’t get overlooked in 10 Academy Awards categories.
But then, I doubt anyone who has seen Moore in “The Substance” will be able to shake her turn from their minds, particularly if they saw the series of behind-the-scenes photos from the movie that she posted on Halloween. It’s understandable if you think that a body-horror movie might not play with enough academy members for Moore to break through and earn her first Oscar nomination. But there’s a real passion for the movie and Moore’s turn as Elisabeth Sparkle, a faded star who submits to a back-alley rejuvenation regime to reset her career.
I keep thinking about that scene Moore has in front of the bathroom mirror, reapplying her makeup to the point where she rubs her face raw. In the midst of the movie’s madness, it’s such a vulnerable, relatable moment. And Moore’s enthusiasm for the movie’s journey has been a delight. She went nuts when “The Substance” earned a best picture nomination with the Globes. (She got a nod too.) Maybe she’ll be posting another video on Oscar nominations morning. If you live within a 10-mile radius, you may well even hear her cheer.
From the Oscars to the Emmys.
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