How the BAFTA nominations might shape the Oscars

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Jan. 18, 2024 2:33 PM PT

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts dropped its list of 2024 movie-award nominations early Thursday morning, and there’s a healthy amount of surprises among them. For instance, while “Oppenheimer” rules the roost as expected, with 13 nominations, “Barbie” collects only five and is snubbed for top film and director. But while the awards are voted on by industry professionals with significant membership overlap with the stateside Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — much the same criterion that makes the SAGs and the other guilds good predictors of Oscar results — BAFTA and the Oscars often go separate ways when it comes to, say, best picture.

Among this year’s nominations, “Poor Things” is in second place with 11, but despite scoring nods for best film, outstanding British film and adapted screenplay, it’s snubbed for direction and actors not named Emma Stone. “Past Lives” got love for its screenplay, lead actor Teo Yoo and best film not in the English language, in something of a “Minari” conundrum — but not for best film or for its acclaimed lead actress, Greta Lee, or director Celine Song. As expected, the German-language British film “The Zone of Interest” is positioned in pretty much every category it could be, except — perhaps oddly — for best film. It’s in the outstanding British film group, but does not join “Poor Things” in both.

American audiences will recognize almost all the names and films in the running for the non-British-only awards, with lead actress contender Vivian Oparah of “Rye Lane” a likely exception. Otherwise, the acting nods pretty much echo those heard throughout awards season, notably closely resembling the SAGs, plus the inclusion of Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”), Yoo and the “Saltburn” trio of Jacob Elordi, Barry Keoghan and Rosamund Pike. Two supporting performers from the outstanding British film contender “All of Us Strangers,” Claire Foy and Paul Mescal, also are invited to the party.

Sandra Hüller scored two noms (for lead actress in “Anatomy of a Fall,” which was all over the nominations, and supporting for “Zone”). Other performers with multiple nominations are Bradley Cooper (as lead actor and director of “Maestro”) and Elordi (as a supporting actor in “Saltburn” and for the public-voted EE Rising Star award). Christopher Nolan, of course, is up three times for “Oppenheimer,” as its producer, writer and director. He did not receive a craft services nod.

But for Oscar watchers, how significant are BAFTAs? When it comes to best picture, they’re about 39% significant. That’s the perhaps surprisingly low percentage the BAFTAs and Oscars have aligned in the top category since 1990 (13-for-33). They’ve only agreed once in the last nine years — on “Nomadland.” That 39% figure is considerably lower than, say, that of the Critics’ Choice Awards (57%, or 16-for-28 since their inception in 1996). The PGAs remain the best predictor by far (68% since 1990).

The BAFTAs and Oscars agree much more often when it comes to acting and directing. They’ve been in step on six of the last 10 supporting actresses, seven of the last 10 supporting actors and directors, and are especially in tune when it comes to lead actors and actresses, matching eight of the last 10. So that’s potentially good news for the acting and directing nominees.

Full list of nominations for the 77th BAFTA awards, which will be given out Feb. 18:

Best film
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Outstanding British film
“All of Us Strangers”
“How to Have Sex”
“Napoleon”
“The Old Oak”
“Poor Things”
“Rye Lane”
“Saltburn”
“Scrapper”
“Wonka”
“The Zone of Interest”

Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer
“Blue Bag Life”: Lisa Selby (director), Rebecca Lloyd-Evans (director, producer), Alex Fry (producer)
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”: Christopher Sharp (director) [also directed by Moses Bwayo]
“Earth Mama”: Savanah Leaf (writer, director, producer), Shirley O’Connor (producer), Medb Riordan (producer)
“How to Have Sex”: Molly Manning Walker (writer, director)
“Is There Anybody Out There?”: Ella Glendining (director)

Film not in the English language
“20 Days in Mariupol”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Past Lives”
“Society of the Snow”
“The Zone of Interest”

Documentary
“20 Days in Mariupol”
“American Symphony”
“Beyond Utopia”
“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
“Wham!”

Animated film
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”
“Elemental”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

Director
Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers”
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers”
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”

Original screenplay
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Maestro”
“Past Lives”

Adapted screenplay
“All of Us Strangers”
“American Fiction”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”

Lead actress
Fantasia Barrino, “The Color Purple”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Vivian Oparah, “Rye Lane”
Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Lead actor
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Barry Keoghan, “Saltburn”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Teo Yoo, “Past Lives”

Supporting actress
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Claire Foy, “All of Us Strangers”
Sandra Hüller, “The Zone of Interest”
Rosamund Pike, “Saltburn”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”

Supporting actor
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Jacob Elordi, “Saltburn”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Paul Mescal, “All of Us Strangers”
Dominic Sessa, “The Holdovers”

Casting
“All of Us Strangers”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“How to Have Sex”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”

Cinematography
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”

Editing
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”

Costume design
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Makeup and hair
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Original score
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Saltburn”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

Production design
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”

Sound
“Ferrari”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”

Special visual effects
“The Creator”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Napoleon”
“Poor Things ”

British short animation
“Crab Day”
“Visible Mending”
“Wild Summon”

British short film
“Festival of Slaps”
“Gorka”
“Jellyfish and Lobster”
“Such a Lovely Day”
“Yellow”

EE Rising Star award (voted for by the public)
Phoebe Dynevor
Ayo Edebiri
Jacob Elordi
Mia McKenna-Bruce
Sophie Wilde

How the BAFTA nominations might shape the Oscars

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