It’s getting warmer in Southern California. Is winter already over? Not so fast, forecasters say
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Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue across much of Southern California through at least Thursday, likely to set additional daily high records, but forecasters say this stretch of heat isn’t indicative of an early start to springtime.
Several cold, wet storms are expected to dramatically flip the forecast by the weekend, pulling the Southland back into the throes of winter, with below-average temperatures likely to linger into mid-March, according to the national Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlooks.
“We’re going to be really right back in winter here the next couple of days with two or three pretty cold low-pressure systems coming,” said Mike Wofford, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard. “It’s going to be a pretty dramatic change.”
But that shift isn’t expected until Friday, and until then, Wofford said this warm stretch will remain in place, with highs stretching 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year — and even higher in some spots.
The large, warm air mass over much of California has brought the hottest temperatures so far this year in many areas, from the Bay Area down through San Diego, and already, several daily high records have been set in Southern California. On Tuesday, Palmdale hit 80 degrees, tying its Feb. 25, 1986, record high, and Santa Barbara broke its daily record by two degrees, reaching 82, according to the National Weather Service. Palmdale, along with Lancaster, also set a daily record on Monday, hitting 80 and 81, respectively.
Downtown L.A. was about 14 degrees above normal Sunday, reaching 82 degrees. Temperatures could climb into the 90s by Wednesday in the coasts and valleys.
And the heat hasn’t even peaked yet, Wofford said, with the warmest temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday in Southern California, depending on the area. Warm, dry Santa Ana winds are forecast to begin early Thursday and will further influence the already-high temperatures, Wofford said.
“We’ll have a stronger offshore flow which helps warm things up,” he said. More record-high temperatures are possible Wednesday in the Los Angeles County valleys, where highs will be reaching into the low 90s, while coastal areas will see a boost Thursday from those warm winds and could set records with highs in the mid- to high 80s.
While the winds are primarily expected to drive temperatures up, some areas could experience some pretty strong gusts, particularly in the Santa Clarita Valley, much of Ventura County, and inland and mountainous areas of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties, the weather service warned. A wind advisory has been issued Thursday for much of the area south and east of L.A. County, with gusts up to 55 mph possible.
The National Weather Service warned that such strong winds could make driving difficult for high-profile vehicles, knock down trees and cause power outages. Luckily, Wofford said the winds are not a concern when it comes to wildfires.
“We have had a fair amount of rain,” Wofford noted, which wasn’t the case at the beginning of January, when dangerous Santa Anas fueled two major firestorms that would devastate parts of Los Angeles. “Given the fuel moistures, we should have a little bit of a leg up on that.”
Following storms, California is increasing its forecast of water supplies this year. The federal government also increased water projections for agriculture.
By Friday, the winds are expected to die down as a low-pressure system moves into the region, which will drop temperatures by 20 degrees in some areas, Wofford said. Angelenos experiencing highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday should expect that to drop to the 60s Friday, with a chance of rain.
He said minor rainfall will be possible Friday night and again on Sunday, before a stronger storm could bring heavier precipitation by the middle of next week.
“We’re definitely still in the storm track,” Wofford said. “We’re not done [with winter] yet.”
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