What Biden's decision to drop out, endorse Harris means for Newsom

President Biden talks with California Gov. Gavin Newsom

By Taryn LunaStaff Writer

July 23, 2024 3 AM PT

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic presidential nomination confirmed a foregone conclusion: Anyone hoping to see the California governor in the White House should put those dreams on ice.

“Tough. Fearless. Tenacious. With our democracy at stake and our future on the line, no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump’s dark vision and guide our country in a healthier direction than America’s Vice President,” Newsom posted on X, hours after President Biden announced his decision Sunday to step down, followed by his endorsement of Harris as the Democratic nominee.

Biden’s choice to elevate his vice president to the top of the ticket makes sense for the party, and Democratic leaders across the nation quickly rallied behind her.

Endorsements from Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro andothers considered top Democratic presidential contenders all but guarantee Harris a smooth nomination and a November showdown with former President Trump.

But Harris’ accession raises questions about Newsom’s political future. He was a top surrogate for Biden, but his support for the campaign may look different with Harris leading the charge for Democrats.

Unlikely to nab a VP spot

Newsom probably isn’t at the top of Harris’ list of vice presidential candidates.

A provision in the U.S. Constitution prevents electors from voting for both a president and vice president from their own state. So for Newsom to join the ticket and be eligible to receive all 54 electoral college votes from the Golden State for a vice presidential run, he or Harris would need tor egister to vote in another state.

When selecting a running mate, presidential nominees also often look for a prospect from a swing state that they might otherwise lose, said Jack Pitney, Claremont McKenna College’s Roy P. Crocker professor of politics. Harris is already expected to win California, where Trump is extremely unpopular.

“I think Josh Shapiro is very near the top of the list for that reason,” Pitney said of Pennsylvania’s governor. “He actually could add a point or two.”

Among the most important factors, according to what Pitney calls the “civics textbook criterion,” is whether a would-be nominee is qualified to take over as president on Day 1.

“If a candidate had serious questions about the running mate’s qualification, eventually, that lack of qualification is going to be obvious to the public,” he said. “Classic case: Sarah Palin” — the former governor of Alaska who was chosen as Republican John McCain’s running mate in 2008.

A Harris win could delay Newsom’s White House prospects

Shay Franco-Clausen, a delegate from the Bay Area who backs Harris, said Newsom or anyone else challenging the vice president as the nominee “would have caused more harm” following weeks of controversy over Biden’s disastrous debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old president’s ability to win and serve a second term.

“We only have a little bit of time to win, and so we needed to unify behind the party leader,” she said.

“She’s already been vetted,” Franco-Clausen said of Harris. “She’s the only person that can take over the campaign finances. To step down and to uplift her and endorse her was just the message our nation needed.”

A Harris win in November could put Newsom on a long path to the presidency if he wants to run later.

Harris likely would run for reelection in 2028, and Newsom has said he would not compete against her in a presidential contest. That means he’d wait another four years to take his shot.

Under that scenario, Newsom could have a lengthy lull between the time he terms out as governor in 2026 and launches a 2032 presidential campaign. Without an elected post, it could be harder for Newsom to stay relevant.

But others have done it, including President Reagan — who had also served as California governor, Pitney pointed out.

“Reagan was elected president six years after he left the governorship of California, and we’ve seen over the years a number of candidates who have been successful even though they weren’t currently holding office,” Pitney said. “In some ways it’s an advantage, because you don’t have to worry about a day job.”

The double-edged sword of a Trump win

A Democratic loss in November could end Harris’ political career and open the door for Newsom, or someone else, to grab the party’s nomination in 2028.

If Trump were to win, Newsom’s last two years in the governor’s office would be spent in a high-profile battle with the GOP White House over California’s progressive policies and Trump’s hard-right agenda.

The return of the legal battles and social media showdowns over immigration, climate change and healthcare that dominated the first two years of Newsom’s governorship could elevate his profile and leave him in a prime position to run for president in 2028.

“He’s obviously going to run against the Trump record, and I’m sure four more years of Trump would give him a lot of ammunition,” Pitney said.

Newsom’s support for the ticket could look different than before

As a top surrogate for Biden, Newsom campaigned for him in battleground states such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan this month.

The governor, who’s to the president’s left on some issues, helped to energize more progressive and younger voters.

Newsom also acted as an attack dog for Biden during a GOP presidential primary debate last year, and deflected criticism after thedebate against Trump in June.

But the Harris campaign may not need to use Newsom the same way. While the Biden campaign embraced him, there’s the possibility that he could also be seen as stepping on Harris’ toes.

“This is a difficult situation,” Pitney said. “It’s no secret that they’ve had something of a rivalry for many years, but he understands that the best course for him is to be very supportive of the ticket.”

In a fundraising email sent on behalf of U.S. Senate candidates on Monday, Newsom repeated his endorsement of Harris and said he intended “to spend the next several months working to defeat Donald Trump and elect Democrats everywhere.”

“I have already visited a number of states campaigning for Joe Biden and many other Democrats and state parties,” the email said. “That work won’t stop.”