Gold Derby: Some early Oscar favorites
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This year we’ll find out how truly hip the academy is. Will members put “The Social Network” on their friends list? Will Oscar voters embrace the lesbian family in “The Kids Are All Right”? “Black Swan” has steamy girl-on-girl and solo action that would’ve made members blush in olden days. If traditional tastes end up reigning supreme, there are lots of quality contenders to hail, such as “The King’s Speech,” “True Grit” and “The Fighter.” It’s early yet, so here we look at just some of the key awards.
BEST PICTURE
(Front-runners)
“127 Hours”
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Hereafter”
“How Do You Know”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“Love and Other Drugs”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“The Way Back”
“Winter’s Bone”
Spotlight: Most prognosticators believe this is a battle between “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” “Speech” is a stylish costume drama much like past champs “Amadeus” and “The Last Emperor.” Recently, voters have preferred more gritty, contemporary fare, such as “No Country for Old Men” and “The Hurt Locker.” “The Social Network” fits that bill.
(Possible)
“Another Year”
“Blue Valentine”
“Fair Game”
“Get Low”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Made in Dagenham”
“Rabbit Hole”
“Secretariat”
“Shutter Island”
BEST DIRECTOR
(Front-runners)
Ben Affleck, “The Town”
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
James L. Brooks, “How Do You Know”
Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids Are All Right”
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, “True Grit”
Clint Eastwood, “Hereafter”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”
Lee Unkrich, “Toy Story 3”
Peter Weir, “The Way Back”
Edward Zwick, “Love and Other Drugs”
Spotlight: To win here, it helps to be overdue. That factor helped the Coen brothers to prevail for a very atypical Oscar film, “No Country for Old Men,” in 2007. Now there’s a big push to catch up with David Fincher, but, hey, wait: Nolan, Aronofsky and Weir are also overdue for Oscar glory.
(Possible)
Derek Cianfrance, “Blue Valentine”
Sofia Coppola, “Somewhere”
Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders, “How to Train Your Dragon”
Debra Granik, “Winter’s Bone”
Mike Leigh, “Another Year”
John Cameron Mitchell, “Rabbit Hole”
Roman Polanski, “The Ghost Writer”
Martin Scorsese, “Shutter Island”
LEAD ACTOR
(Front-runners)
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Inception”
Michael Douglas, “Solitary Man”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”
Spotlight: Colin Firth has several pluses. As George VI in “The King’s Speech,” he portrays a real person just like six of the last 10 winners. He struggles to overcome a handicap (a stammer), and he holds an academy IOU, having lost last year for “A Single Man.”
(Possible)
Ben Affleck, “The Town”
Jim Carrey, “I Love You, Phillip Morris”
Matt Damon, “Hereafter”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Shutter Island”
Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole”
Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs”
Ewan McGregor, “The Ghost Writer”
Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”
Jim Sturgess, “The Way Back”
LEAD ACTRESS
(Front-runners)
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Sally Hawkins, “Made in Dagenham”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Diane Lane, “Secretariat”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Lesley Manville, “Another Year”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Hilary Swank, “Conviction”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Reese Witherspoon, “How Do You Know”
Spotlight: If both Annette Bening and Julianne Moore earn bids for “The Kids Are All Right,” they’ll become the sixth set of costars nominated for lead actress, following Anne Baxter and Bette Davis in “All About Eve” (1950), Katharine Hepburn and Elizabeth Taylor in “Suddenly, Last Summer” (1959), Anne Bancroft and Shirley MacLaine in “The Turning Point” (1977), Shirley MacLaine and Debra Winger in “Terms of Endearment” (1983) and Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in “Thelma and Louise” (1991). Only MacLaine won.
(Possible)
Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice”
Cécile de France, “Hereafter”
Rachel McAdams, “Morning Glory”
Carey Mulligan, “Never Let Me Go”
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Country Strong”
Naomi Watts, “Fair Game”
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