Democrats and Republicans target incumbents in House races

As Republicans and Democrats gear up across the country to fight this fall over seats in the House of Representatives, much of the focus in California is on the June 8 primaries. Especially in the two districts with open seats, the races will provide relatively rare change in the state’s 53-member delegation.

Two veteran representatives are retiring, Democrat Diane Watson of Los Angeles, first elected to Congress in 2001, and Republican George Radanovich of the Central Valley, who initially won the office in 1994.

The filing period for those seats closes Wednesday.

A diverse district

In Watson’s 33rd District, eight Democrats so far have taken formal steps to get on the ballot.

That number includes Watson, who took out nomination papers Jan. 11 but a month later announced she would not run.

Her district, one of the most ethnically and economically diverse in the nation, includes Culver City, Ladera Heights, Hancock Park, Hollywood, Silver Lake and parts of South Los Angeles.

Heavily favored to succeed her in the Democratic stronghold is former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass. But Deputy City Atty. Felton Newell, who got into the race six months ago and has been raising money, said he was in it to stay.

Four Republicans also have filed.

In Radanovich’s 19th District, former Rep. Richard W. Pombo, defeated in 2006 in another district, was expected to be in a three-way fight for the Republican nomination with state Sen. Jeff Denham of Atwater and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson. Radanovich, who said he would retire to spend more time with his ill wife, is backing Denham.

Two Los Angeles-area Democrats are facing primary challenges, but political handicappers do not expect them to have trouble keeping their seats.

In the 36th District, political activist and teacher Marcy Winograd plans to reprise her 2006 challenge to Venice-based Rep. Jane Harman. Five others also entered the race.

In the 37th District, Rep. Laura Richardson of Long Beach, who has made headlines and sparked a House Ethics Committee investigation over dealings involving her Sacramento home, has drawn three little-known, under-financed opponents for the Democratic nomination, including Peter Mathews, a college professor. One Republican also filed.

Come November, even well-financed challengers to sitting members of Congress will face uphill battles in California, thanks largely to a 2001 redrawing of district lines that largely protected incumbents in both major parties. And even the two open seats are highly unlikely to change hands, observers say.

‘Safe’ seats

The California Target Book, which tracks races, has pronounced the districts “safe Democratic� and “safe Republican,� respectively, and the Washington-based Cook Political Report does not include either in lists of potentially competitive seats.

“In California, it takes a partisan tidal wave to move House seats in either direction,� said Dan Schnur, a longtime Republican operative who is now director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC.

“Redistricting back in 2001 essentially built a sea wall and a moat around [incumbents] in both parties out here,� Schnur said, adding that the expense of campaigning in the state adds to the difficulty of unseating an incumbent or pushing a district from one major party’s hands to the other.

This is the last election year before district boundaries are redrawn next year after the census, but few observers expect much change after that. The Legislature will continue to draw congressional districts in California, even though voters decided that state lawmakers will have their remapping done by an independent commission.

Still, Republicans and Democrats are gearing up for at least some attempts to oust incumbents.

Democrats, facing the prospect of losing a number of House seats elsewhere in the fall, see “real targets of opportunity in California,� said Andy Stone, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman. He cited the state’s declining Republican voter registration and growth in nonwhite voters among reasons for optimism.

The committee is mounting challenges to Republican Reps. Dan Lungren in the Sacramento area, Mary Bono Mack of Palm Springs and possibly Ken Calvert of Corona. Physician Ami Bera, who is taking on Lungren, and Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who is opposing Bono Mack, last week were included in the 13 candidates the committee has selected for the first round of its Red to Blue program.

The program provides financial and other support to “top Democratic campaigns� in contested districts across the country.

But Democratic victories in any of those districts are still seen as long shots. Most observers believe the party ultimately will use most of its resources to defend threatened seats elsewhere in the country.

Republicans, long outnumbered by Democrats in this state, are eyeing a Northern California seat wrested from them by Democrat Jerry McNerney in 2006. Several Republicans have filed to run.

A contested Republican primary shaped up in Orange County over who gets to challenge Democrat Loretta Sanchez, strongly favored to win reelection in the fall. Assemblyman Van Tran of Garden Grove, who was termed out, was recruited by congressional Republicans but has competition for the GOP nomination from Katherine H. Smith, an Anaheim Union High School District board member; and businessman Tan Nguyen.

Barbara O’Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at Cal State Sacramento, cautioned that it’s too soon to predict the outcome in contested races.

Factors will include the economy, what the new voters who came out for President Obama will do and the state’s tendency to break from voting patterns seen in the rest of the country.

“California has this kind of quirkiness about it that makes it difficult to predict,� O’Connor said.

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