Voters Cool Toward State Bond Package

A $37-billion package of public works bonds that has strong bipartisan support in Sacramento is in some peril among voters, along with ballot measures dealing with alternative energy and a cigarette tax, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

The vast majority of likely voters knew too little about the infrastructure bonds -- backed by both Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators -- to express an opinion.

After poll respondents were read a ballot summary of each measure, none of the items generated much enthusiasm. Only two eked out a bare majority: those on housing and disaster preparedness.

The measures on smoking and alternative energy were much better known, thanks to extensive advertising campaigns, but neither drew majority support.

Two of California’s most durable Democrats, meanwhile, were in strong positions as the November election nears.

U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein holds a hefty lead in her run for reelection.

And Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown enjoys a sizable edge as he bids to become state attorney general, the poll found.

The positive news for Feinstein and Brown contrasted with a series of much closer contests in the so-called down-ballot races for statewide office. If a Democratic wave is building in the country, as polls suggest, it has yet to materialize in California.

Although Democratic Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer enjoys a commanding lead in his effort to become state treasurer, the rest of the contests for constitutional offices are far more competitive. A substantial chunk of the vote remains up for grabs, with just a little more than five weeks left before election day.

The Nov. 7 ballot features, at the top of the ticket, the race between Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrat Phil Angelides, the state treasurer. Also included are the Senate and down-ballot races, legislative and congressional contests and 13 initiatives, as well as local issues.

In the campaign for U.S. Senate, Feinstein was leading Richard Mountjoy, a former Monrovia state senator, 54% to 36% among likely voters and 54% to 29% among registered voters. That compares to a 59%-to-30% advantage for Feinstein among registered voters surveyed in the last poll.

“I find that many times she votes more conservative than I would want and is a little too conciliatory toward the Republicans,� said San Francisco Democrat Marilyn Levy, a retired technical writer in her 50s, explaining her support for Feinstein in a follow-up interview. “But I think she has a very good environmental record, and I think we could do a lot worse.�

For some, their vote in the Senate contest is a chance to send a message. Lowell Norling, a lifelong Republican from Oakland, said he was voting for Feinstein because the GOP “is taking the country the wrong way right now.�

“The senators are supposed to have some brains of their own, but they’re just voting party line no matter what,� said the 65-year-old retired sheet metal worker.

In the attorney general’s race, former presidential candidate and Gov. Brown was leading state Sen. Chuck Poochigian (R-Fresno) 51% to 34% among likely voters in the most recent survey. Among registered voters, the figures were 50% to 30%. In April, Brown was ahead 49% to 24% among registered voters.

Lately, the two candidates have pummeled each other in a series of TV and radio spots. Brown portrays Poochigian as a conservative extremist who will not support legal abortion and opposes a ban on cop-killer bullets. Poochigian depicts Brown as a liberal extremist who would coddle criminals and fail to enforce the death penalty.

Josephine Cranston, a 77-year-old retiree in Irvine, is a Republican but won’t rule out a vote for Brown.

“He’s done some good things, done some bad. He’s a very intelligent person. He’s just not fit the conventional mold,� she said of Brown, whose 30-year political career was broken up by sojourns in Japan and India.

Cranston knows nothing about Poochigian, she said, and wants to familiarize herself with him before figuring out how to vote.

“I’m open to whoever is more qualified,� she said. “I’ll find out more between now and the election and make it my business to know that.�

In other down-ballot contests, there were substantial percentages of voters undecided:

* In the race for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks) was virtually tied with Democratic state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, 42% to 41%.

* In the contest for secretary of state, state Sen. Debra Bowen (D-Marina del Rey) was also in a virtual tie with Republican incumbent Bruce McPherson, 35% to 33%.

* In the race for treasurer, Democrat Lockyer was leading Republican State Board of Equalization member Claude Parrish 50% to 26%.

* In the campaign for insurance commissioner, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante was ahead of businessman Steve Poizner 43% to 38%. The five-point gap falls within the survey’s margin of error.

* In the race for state controller, Democrat John Chiang of the State Board of Equalization was leading former Assemblyman Tony Strickland, a Republican from Thousand Oaks, by 36% to 30%, just within the margin of error.

As for the ballot measures, the general rule is that they need to have considerably more than 50% support heading into the final phase of the campaign to surmount a tendency on the part of late-deciding voters to vote “no.� None of the measures included in the poll hit that mark.

Two were statistically tied.

Proposition 1B, a $19.9-billion bond item, is intended to improve the state’s highways and port system. Of those surveyed, 39% were in favor and 41% were opposed. Proposition 1D, a $10.4-billion bond measure for school improvements, was leading 43% to 39%, within the margin of error.

Two other measures had sizable leads.

Proposition 1C, authorizing $2.9 billion in bonds to build urban parks and provide low-interest loans and grants for affordable housing, farmworker housing and homeless shelters, was ahead 51% to 34%.

Proposition 1E, to sell $4.1 billion in bonds for levee improvements and flood control projects, was leading 50% to 29%.

Among other measures on the ballot, Proposition 86 was ahead 47% to 42%, a lead within the margin of error. The initiative would raise the tax on cigarettes by $2.60 a pack to pay for healthcare programs.

Proposition 87, which seeks to boost research into alternative energies by increasing the tax on crude oil pumped in California, was ahead 45% to 38%.

The Times Poll, supervised by director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,312 registered voters in California; 989 of those interviewed were deemed likely to vote Nov. 7. The survey, conducted last Saturday through Thursday, has a margin of error for likely voters of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

What’s the vote?

Q: If the general election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

U.S. senator

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Dianne Feinstein 54 90 57 15 Richard Mountjoy 36 5 34 76 Someone else 3 1 3 2 Don’t know 7 4 6 7

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Lieutenant governor

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Tom McClintock 42 9 35 83 John Garamendi 41 72 35 8 Someone else 3 5 1 - Don’t know 14 14 29 9

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Attorney general

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Jerry Brown 51 81 48 20 Chuck Poochigian 34 8 20 68 Someone else 3 3 4 1 Don’t know 12 8 28 11

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Insurance commissioner

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Cruz Bustamante 43 72 41 11 Steve Poizner 38 11 29 75 Someone else 4 5 2 1 Don’t know 15 12 28 13

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Secretary of state

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Debra Bowen 35 61 29 8 Bruce McPherson 33 10 24 66 Someone else 3 3 3 2 Don’t know 29 26 44 24

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Controller

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans John Chiang 36 63 33 6 Tony Strickland 30 5 20 64 Someone else 3 4 2 1 Don’t know 31 28 45 29

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Treasurer

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Bill Lockyer 50 80 41 19 Claude Parrish 26 3 14 58 Someone else 3 4 2 1 Don’t know 21 13 43 22

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Q: If the general election were being held today, would you vote for or against these propositions?

Proposition 1B: The Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality and Port Security Bond Act

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Vote yes 39 45 49 33 Vote no 41 30 31 54 Don’t know 20 25 20 13

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Proposition 1C: The Housing and Emergency Shelter Trust Fund Act

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Vote yes 51 61 52 38 Vote no 34 22 35 49 Don’t know 15 17 13 13

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Proposition 1D: The Kindergarten-University Public Education Facilities Bond Act

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Vote yes 43 52 52 28 Vote no 39 25 36 57 Don’t know 18 23 12 15

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Proposition 1E: The Disaster Preparedness and Flood Prevention Bond Act

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Vote yes 50 53 61 45 Vote no 29 25 19 36 Don’t know 21 22 20 19

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Proposition 86: The Tax on Cigarettes Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Vote yes 47 59 53 33 Vote no 42 29 38 59 Don’t know 11 12 9 8

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Proposition 87: The Alternative Energy, Research, Production, Incentives Tax on California Oil Producers Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute

*--* Likely Democrats Independent Republicans Vote yes 45 60 53 25 Vote no 38 23 34 57 Don’t know 17 17 13 18

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Notes: All results are among likely voters; (-) indicates less than 0-5%. Respondents were read ballot summaries and lists of candidates. For actual question wording and to see more poll results go to: www.latimes.com/timespoll.

How the poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 1,868 adults in California by telephone Sept. 23 through 28. Among them were 1,312 registered voters, of whom 989 were deemed likely to vote in the Nov. 7 general election. Likely voters were determined by a screening process that included questions on intention to vote, certainty of vote, interest in the campaign and voting history. Telephone numbers were randomly selected from a list of all exchanges in the state, allowing calls to listed and unlisted numbers. Multiple attempts were made to call each number. Additional Latino voters were contacted in a separate random sample to allow more accurate analysis of their subgroup. Adults in the entire sample were weighted slightly to conform with census proportions for sex, ethnicity, age, education, region and the secretary of state’s report of party registration. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by such factors as question wording and the order in which questions were presented. Interviews in the Latino supplemental sample were conducted by Interviewing Service of America in Van Nuys. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.

Source: L.A. Times Poll