Bush Says Iraq Exit Timetable Is ‘Speculation’

CRAWFORD, Texas —  President Bush on Thursday dismissed as “speculation” recent statements by senior U.S. generals in Iraq that the Pentagon could begin withdrawing troops by spring, saying that an exit timetable would be based solely on political and military progress.

A premature pullout would send a “terrible signal” to the enemy, Bush said, and would amount to a betrayal of millions of Iraqis who voted in parliamentary elections in January.

“The position of this government is clear -- that as Iraqis stand up, we’ll stand down,” Bush said after meeting with members of his national security team.

Bush avoided directly contradicting Army Gen. George W. Casey and Army Lt. Gen. John R. Vines.

But his words were a sign that the White House wants to carefully manage expectations about the U.S. military’s future in Iraq at a time when public support is dropping and casualties are mounting.

In recent weeks, several top commanders have said that they would be ready to recommend a reduction of about 30,000 U.S. troops early next year if scheduled elections in October and December go smoothly and sufficient progress is made training Iraqi forces to take over counterinsurgency missions.

Bush distanced himself from such predictions Thursday, pointing out that he, not the generals, would have the last word.

“The decision finally will be made by me -- upon the recommendation of Gen. Casey, through [Defense] Secretary [Donald H.] Rumsfeld, to me,” Bush said.

Beset by protests outside his Texas ranch, Bush took issue with the antiwar arguments.

“I also have heard the voices of those saying pull out now, and I’ve thought about their cry and their sincere desire to reduce the loss of life by pulling our troops out,” he said. “I just strongly disagree.”

In an interview with the Los Angeles Times last month, Vines -- the top ground commander in Iraq -- said that if progress in training Iraqi troops and forming a government continued, he would be “prepared to recommend” that U.S. troop levels be reduced soon after the election.

“My recommendation will be based on conditions at that time, but it could conceivably be as much as 20% to 25% following the elections,” Vines said.

A week later, Casey echoed Vines’ comments, predicting “fairly substantial” reductions. He made his remarks after meeting with Rumsfeld, who had made a one-day visit to Baghdad.

“I think [talk of troop reductions] were rumors. I think they’re speculation,” Bush said. “I suspect what you were hearing was speculation based upon progress that some are seeing in Iraq as to whether or not the Iraqis will be able to take the fight to the enemy.”

Military officials in Iraq are mindful that with 138,000 U.S. troops in Iraq nearly 2 1/2 years after the fall of Baghdad, a gradual decrease in forces would be the most concrete sign of progress.

Pentagon officials have their own reasons for hoping for a troop withdrawal: They are concerned about the strain that redeployments are having on the all-volunteer military, and whether repeated combat tours in Iraq could lead to an exodus from the military services.

But Bush on Thursday described recruitment and retention in optimistic terms.

He pointed out that all active-duty branches would meet their reenlistment goals this year, and said the Army met its July goal for new active-duty recruits. But he did not mention that Army officials were not expecting to meet their annual recruitment targets.

Bush also raised the possibility that the Pentagon could increase U.S. troops in Iraq before the expected constitutional referendum in October -- as it did before January’s parliamentary election and last year’s presidential election in Afghanistan.

The increase probably would come about by delaying the departures of troops scheduled to leave Iraq this fall.

“We did, as you might recall, increase troops for the Iraqi election and for the Afghanistan elections,” Bush said. “It seemed to have helped create security, and I know the secretary of Defense is analyzing that possibility.”

Bush spoke to reporters during a midday break in meetings with his national security team, and was joined by Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Rumsfeld and others. Bush was the only one who spoke.

With five grieving parents camped out near his ranch to protest the war, Bush said he was heartbroken over the deaths, but added that he “strongly” disagreed with their call for an immediate troop withdrawal.

Bush did not address one of the group’s central contentions: that he had misled the country to justify going to war.

“Pulling the troops out would send a terrible signal to the enemy,” he said. “Pulling troops out prematurely will betray the Iraqis.”

Shortly before Bush spoke, the parents of the fallen soldiers held a news conference.

“We just don’t want other families to go through what we went through,” said a weeping Jean Prewitt, a Birmingham, Ala., woman whose son, Army Pvt. Kelly Prewitt, was killed in Iraq two years ago.

“This war is a disgrace,” said Celeste Zappala of Philadelphia. She said her son, Army Sgt. Sherwood Baker, was killed last year while looking for “nonexistent weapons of mass destruction.”

The small but growing gathering of war protesters promised to maintain its Texas vigil, posing a problem for the president.

The group’s leader, Cindy Sheehan, arrived Saturday clamoring for a meeting with Bush.

The president sent two aides -- national security advisor Stephen J. Hadley and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Joe Hagin -- to meet with Sheehan, but she was unappeased.

White House aides and Sheehan agreed that a meeting with Bush was unlikely.

But the parents are drawing attention at a time when public opinion is swinging against Bush’s handling of the war.

“It is possible that such an assembly at Bush’s vacation spot in Texas could develop into a punctuating event for public opinion, especially if Bush does not step forward personally to hear them out,” said Bruce Buchanan, a University of Texas political scientist.

“Uncomfortable though it would be, the best thing the president could do to help himself would be to meet with them. It could backfire if it went poorly, but it becomes a symbol of his isolation and unresponsiveness if he doesn’t try.”

Bush brought up the protest without prompting.

“I grieve for every death,” he said. “It breaks my heart to think about a family weeping over the loss of a loved one. I understand the anguish that some feel about the death that takes place.”

He added: “I sympathize with Mrs. Sheehan.... She has every right in the world to say what she believes. This is America.”

The White House said Bush so far had met with about 900 family members of 272 fallen soldiers.

Chen reported from Crawford and Mazzetti from Washington.