Derby Strategies Are Put to Test

LOUISVILLE, Ky. â€”  Buzzards Bay, the Santa Anita Derby winner, isn’t due here until Wednesday, two days after the arrival of his co-owner.

Andromeda’s Hero, the most lightly regarded of trainer Nick Zito’s five Kentucky Derby contenders, is at Keeneland, 70 miles from his four stablemates at Churchill Downs.

Afleet Alex, the Arkansas Derby winner, sometimes goes to the track twice in a morning, with a two-hour rest in between.

Are these ways to win the 131st Kentucky Derby?

A week from today, in front of a crowd of more than 150,000, the answer could be yes. The beauty of the Derby is that there’s no blueprint for winning. The winning horse can come from anywhere, be trained in any fashion, and doesn’t necessarily need any momentum. In fact, many Derby winners were beaten in their previous races.

The only certainty is that the horse that runs the fastest 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May gets the roses.

This Derby, worth a record purse of $2 million, might have a clear-cut favorite -- George Steinbrenner’s colt, Bellamy Road, winner of the Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths -- but in many respects it’s as unsettled as any. Two of the horses still don’t have jockeys. With a field limit of 20, there could be an overflow at the entry box Wednesday, and the Illinois Derby winner, Greeley’s Galaxy, might have to stay in his barn.

Californian B. Wayne Hughes, owner of Greeley’s Galaxy, might have an 11th-hour contender in Don’t Get Mad, who’s running today in the $100,000 Derby Trial as the newly remodeled Churchill -- at a cost of $121 million -- launches its Derby meet.

In another era, the Trial frequently produced Derby winners. Twelve Derby winners prepped in the race, but there has been none since Tim Tam in 1958. Conventional thinking is that even two weeks is too short a time for a horse to recover from a prep and run big in the Derby. The last horse to win with less than three weeks’ rest was Charismatic, in 1999, and before him you have to go back to Lil E. Tee, in 1992.

When Declan’s Moon, last year’s champion 2-year-old male, was injured in March, trainer Ron Ellis’ Derby hope became Don’t Get Mad. Ellis was saying early on that Don’t Get Mad wasn’t far behind Declan’s Moon in ability, but he’s still winless this year and his finishes, while in stiffer company, indicate he’s regressing.

Don’t Get Mad, running all his races at Santa Anita, was second in the San Vicente in February, third in the San Felipe in March, and sixth, nine lengths behind Buzzards Bay, in the Santa Anita Derby on April 9.

Gary Stevens will ride Don’t Get Mad for the first time in the one-mile Trial. At 7-2, second choice on the morning line, they’ll break from the outside post in an eight-horse field.

Vicarage, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the 5-2 favorite. Once a Derby prospect, Vicarage took himself out of contention with a sixth-place finish in the Florida Derby. Even without Vicarage, Pletcher has Derby probables in Bandini, Flower Alley and Coin Silver.

This is the year of the double-up Derby, and then some. Zito, who trains Bellamy Road, has five starters, and with Pletcher’s trio and Wayne Lukas’ pair, those three trainers could saddle half the field. The only year that comes close is 1996, when Lukas started five -- including the winner, Grindstone -- and Zito and Bob Baffert had two apiece.

Pletcher said Friday that Pat Valenzuela would ride Coin Silver, winner of the Lexington Stakes. Valenzuela won the 1989 Derby with Sunday Silence but hasn’t ridden in the race since 1993.

Lukas, who has won the Derby four times, is assured of Consolidator’s running next Saturday, but his other horse, Going Wild, is on the same bubble as Greeley’s Galaxy. Earnings in graded races determine the field in case of more than 20, and in Greeley’s Galaxy’s case his $300,000 doesn’t count because he wasn’t nominated. It will cost Hughes a penalty of $200,000 if Greeley’s Galaxy makes the starters’ list.

The chances of Going Wild and Greeley’s Galaxy making the Derby improved when General John B, second in the Santa Anita Derby, was knocked out of the Kentucky Derby because of a tendon injury.

Spanish Chestnut, whose Derby status will be determined by a workout here on Monday, has the look of a horse that doesn’t belong. From California to Kentucky, he has been soundly beaten in his last three starts, and he has an up-front running style with distance limitations.

But he still could run in the Derby. His owners, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, also race Bandini, the Blue Grass winner, and they might bump Greeley’s Galaxy, a viable contender, by entering Spanish Chestnut as well. Smith and Tabor’s right-hand man, Demi O’Byrne, discounted devious intentions after they ran both colts in the Blue Grass.

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Run for the Roses

Top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, to be run May 7 at 3 p.m. PDT on Ch. 4:

*--* HORSE TRAINER Afleet Alex Tim Ritchey Andromeda’s Hero Nick Zito Bandini Todd Pletcher Bellamy Road Nick Zito Buzzard’s Bay Jeff Mullins Closing Argument Kiaran McLaughlin Coin Silver Todd Pletcher Consolidator Wayne Lukas Flower Alley Todd Pletcher Giacomo John Shirreffs Going Wild Wayne Lukas Greater Good Robert Holthus Greeley’s Galaxy Warren Stute High Fly Nick Zito High Limit Bobby Frankel Noble Causeway Nick Zito Sun King Nick Zito Wilko Craig Dollase Sort It Out Bob Baffert

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