Why Walk When You Can Run?

By J.A. Adande

Oct. 2, 2004 12 AM PT

OAKLAND — This isn’t the Athletics vs. the Angels this weekend, it’s a clash of philosophies: Moneyball vs. Big Money Ballers.

The smart money’s on the big money, especially when that cash pays for a pitcher who delivers as bankable a performance as Bartolo Colon did Friday night.

Colon, those disappointing early days of the season a memory, delivered the ace-type performance the Angels expected when they signed him to a four-year, $51-million contract.

In this instance, you get what you pay for.

While the Angels got to Mark Mulder for four runs in two innings, Colon pitched seven shutout innings in a 10-0 victory that moved the Angels within a victory of the American League West championship. Colon gave up only three hits and no walks to a team that emphasizes bases on balls.

There’s a superstar premium because they rise to the occasion, the way Vladimir Guerrero did in Texas this week, the way New York’s Derek Jeter did in that famous backhand flip in the 2001 playoffs.

The A’s try to win with a team payroll that’s less than what the New York Yankees tip their clubhouse attendants. Meanwhile, Angel owner Arte Moreno made a big splash in his first entry into the free-agent pool last off-season when he spent almost $140 million on pitchers Colon and Kelvim Escobar and outfielder Vladimir Guerrero.

“Obviously, over a period of time, Oakland has done a tremendous job of bringing players to their organization, developing players, evaluating players and so on,” Moreno said. “They’ve been to the playoffs four straight years. Last year we didn’t get to the playoffs. Being a new owner, I felt that I needed to make an investment in some areas that we could not supplement in our minor league system.

“Do you play and take a chance of getting beat up? Or do you make an investment into your business? For me, part of my responsibility as an owner is to put a competitive team on the field for the fans.”

With a budget limited by owners Steve Schott and Ken Hoffman, the A’s tried to beat the system and outwit the big-market, small-market disparity in baseball by playing the numbers instead of by the rules, enabling them to survive the steady exodus of players to greener pastures, including 2000 most valuable player Jason Giambi.

As detailed in Michael Lewis’ book “Moneyball,” Oakland General Manager Billy Beane sought salvation in statistics, believing he could produce a winner by stocking a team full of guys who get on base. It’s all about on-base percentage and slugging percentage, forget all that bunting and stealing stuff. Believe in the almighty power of the walk.

The book spent little time addressing pitching. Turns out pitchers are more difficult to predict statistically. Too vulnerable to a blown elbow or shaken confidence.

But pitching is what gets it done, even if that’s not a revolutionary thought. For all of the charts, graphs and statistical variables a general manager can cram in his hard drive, a team is only as good as the pitcher on the mound.

Somehow that got lost in the avalanche of number-crunching.

The simple stat was Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito -- all homegrown talent retained on the low-end of the scale -- won 194 games in the four-year span.

Oakland Manager Ken Macha said Hudson, Mulder and Zito “have absolutely been the people who put this organization on the map.”

Lately they’ve contributed to Oakland’s plunge off the cliff. The trio’s 3-8 record and skyrocketing earned-run average in September is the main reason the Angels wiped out a four-game deficit this month.

As for batting, who needs a book of statistics when Tony Gwynn’s on hand? Gwynn, the world’s greatest authority on batting, broadcast Friday’s game for ESPN.

The former San Diego Padre great who coaches San Diego State evaluates a batter based on his mechanics and balance.

When asked about the Moneyball philosophy, Gwynn said, “I have my doubts about some of it. Because I think, in this game, I think a lot of it still comes down to good old-fashioned scouting, good old-fashioned hard work and study and having a gut feel about a guy.

“In Oakland’s case, it’s kind of hard [to judge the philosophy] because their pitching’s been so good. But I can see the validity in some of the things they’re talking about. But not all of it, for me.”

This much we’ve seen for ourselves: the Moneyball formula doesn’t win championships. The most amazing stat of all? The A’s have lost nine consecutive games in which they had a chance to finish a playoff series.

In the book, Beane says, “My [stuff] doesn’t work in the playoffs.”

He calls a short series a crapshoot. Well, you lose nine potential move-on games in a row, that’s enough of a statistical sample to define a trend. I believe there’s even a scientific name for it: choking.

This series amounts to a playoff, best two-out-of-three for the division title.

Ignore the payroll stats of $112 million for Anaheim, $57 million for Oakland.

Today’s game comes down to Escobar vs. Zito.

No ifs, ands or stats about it.

J.A. Adande can be reached at [email protected]. To read previous columns by Adande, go to latimes.com/adande.