Returning From Tranquillity to Recall Madness

By George Skelton

July 24, 2003 12 AM PT

Sacramento — Sacramento

“Must be a Southern California thing,” said the young bartender, working what’s certainly the world’s finest watering hole, on a pier along Lake Tahoe’s west shore.

He hadn’t heard one patron talk about the dump-Davis effort all summer. “Doesn’t seem to be much interest here.”

Not that Scott wasn’t up to speed on California’s governor. He thought Gray Davis looked weak during the energy crisis of 2000-01, but, come on, voters reelected him the next year. Just last November, he noted. The budget mess isn’t all his fault.

Recalling the governor, Scott asserted, “is nuts.”

That was the view from a 149-year-old bar surrounded by deep blue water, snow-capped peaks and relaxed vacationers.

Indeed, in three weeks at Tahoe, I heard only one other person -- a political junkie friend from Hollywood -- mention the recall.

Then I returned to the Central Valley, an uncomfortable 100-degree oven where 66% of voters think California is “seriously off on the wrong track,” according to a recent Times poll. (Actually, that’s about average negativism for the state.)

I ran into Sally, a onetime airline stewardess during the prop era who’s now a starter at a golf course. “The recall? You bet I signed it,” she proclaimed. “I don’t know whether it was the right thing, but it sure sends a message.”

The message? “Get that guy out of there! And recall them all. Those legislators aren’t any better.”

Sally’s representative, and Scott’s perceptive.

The Times Poll found even less voter approval of the Legislature (24%) than the governor (26%).

And this is “a Southern California thing,” according to the poll. The South and North are divided. By 57% to 36%, Southern California voters said they’d oust Davis. Conversely, Northerners would keep him, by 50% to 43%.

But that’s because of the San Francisco Bay Area. Here in the Central Valley, 58% said they’d recall the Democratic governor.

Voters must blame Davis for the heat -- and think he starts brush fires.

Statewide, 51% of registered voters favor firing the governor; 42% say they’d retain him. That’s not unsurmountable.

But the tricky maneuver for Davis will be to keep the public’s focus off him and to shine it on politics and process -- as in “outsiders hijacking our government.”

Davis’ oft-repeated message: “This is more about changing directions than changing governors.... I believe strongly that when people go to the polls, they are not going to recall a progressive agenda for a right-wing agenda.”

And, tough as it is for Davis, he’ll try to mix in a little humble pie and mea culpa. “I’ll own up to my mistakes. I haven’t done everything perfect,” he told the Associated Press on Wednesday.

Davis and everybody in his camp realize he’s incapable of polishing his record -- crowing about education gains and environmental protection -- because he has little credibility with voters. He is not believed. That’s a big reason he spent tens of millions last year attacking opponents on TV and very little touting himself. Now, he’s paying for it.

A better use of the $10 million-plus that Davis hopes to spend on TV ads, strategists think, is to keep reminding taxpayers about the $30 million -- at least -- they’ll be shelling out for the special election. “When they find out, they really get ticked off,” says Michael Bustamante, a longtime Davis aide who is coordinating the anti-recall campaign.

The Davis recallers don’t disagree with the governor’s strategy.

On my desk after returning from Tahoe was a leaked, lengthy memo written for “the recall team” by veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz. A crib sheet with cue cards, the memo advised which words to use and subjects to avoid.

For example, “The perfect five-second sound bite: ‘Sure, Gray Davis hasn’t caused all of these problems. But he has done nothing to solve them.’ ”

But Luntz also warned: “Two facts [work] very well for the anti-recall side. ‘[The] $30 million could have been spent on education or other underfunded programs,’ [and] ‘The recall represents uncertainty -- a chance that someone worse than Gray Davis might be elected.’ ”

Myself, I think -- based on polls and hunches -- if former Mayor Richard Riordan were to run, he’d win hands down. It’s too compelling a story: Republican contender is savaged by Democratic governor in GOP primary one year, then returns to run him out of office the next.

Arnold Schwarzenegger is carrying baggage and would have a tough race, but never underestimate the public’s desire to be entertained. He’d bring rare excitement to Sacramento.

Davis’ best shot is to have only U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista -- the recall bankroller -- and 2002 loser Bill Simon on the ballot. That just might prod nose-holding Democrats to the polls to protect their party’s incumbent.

Luntz admonished the recallers: “Anyone who thinks this is a slam-dunk is nuts.”

As bartender Scott says, this whole thing is nuts.