Converting Way Into the Playoffs

December separates the contenders from the pretenders in the parity-conscious NFL.

It’s the time of year when teams that play with heart often steal playoff berths from more talented squads because they execute better down the stretch.

Last season, Cleveland, New England, Miami and Denver each finished 9-7. The Patriots, Dolphins and Broncos were each 2-2 in December. But the Browns were 3-1 and clinched the final wild-card berth in the AFC.

At this stage of the season, teams know what to expect from each other. Just look at some of today’s key division games: Indianapolis-Tennessee, Miami-New England, Dallas-Philadelphia, Kansas City-Denver, Cincinnati-Baltimore.

Each game is loaded with playoff implications. And there will not be many secrets. It’s put-up or shut-up time and everyone knows it.

And one of the best ways to determine which teams will have the mettle to get the job done, once the pressure is on, is to look at third-down success rates. Teams that pick up first downs, instead of punting, are usually difficult to beat.

That’s one reason behind the success of the Cincinnati Bengals. With quarterback Jon Kitna doing a masterful job of spreading the ball around, and two reliable running backs in Corey Dillon and Rudi Johnson, the Bengals lead the AFC in third-down efficiency.

Heading into today’s game against the Ravens, Cincinnati has converted 81 of 171 third downs (46.1%), Kitna being the main man. He has a 58.7% completion rate on third downs, with nine touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

Kitna has not only been making good decisions on third down, but his throwing accuracy has caused problems for defenses all season. Many of his third-down completions have been against sound pass coverages, because Kitna has been putting his passes where only the receivers can catch them.

The Seattle Seahawks also have been stepping up on third down. They lead the league in converting third downs, with Matt Hasselbeck completing 60.6% of his attempts and throwing 11 of his 22 touchdown passes on third down.

In 158 third downs, Seattle has made first downs 76 times, an eye-opening 48.1% success rate.

You can trace Kitna and Hasselbeck’s third-down efficiency to Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren. Kitna started 27 games in two seasons playing under Holmgren for the Seahawks in 1999 and 2000. Hasselbeck will make his 35th start for Holmgren against Minnesota today.

Both quarterbacks know how to keep plays alive once things break down, but it is their quick decisions, along with strong offensive line play, that have helped turn their teams into efficient offensive powers.

Third downs may be even more important for defenses.

Just ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who limited opponents to a 33.6% success rate on third downs and rode their big-play defenders to a Super Bowl title last season.

This season, Denver, Baltimore, Dallas, New England and the Carolina Panthers have been leaning heavily on their third-down defenses.

The Broncos lead the NFL, having given up first downs on only 26.7% of opponents’ third-down plays. The Ravens are not too far behind at 30.5%, followed by the Cowboys, 31.1%, and Panthers, 33.9%.

For division leaders Tennessee, Indianapolis and St. Louis, the key is to be third-down tough on both sides of the ball. The Titans get first downs on 41.4% of their third-down plays and stop opponents 27.8% of the time. The Colts and Rams also get first downs on at least 40% of their third-down plays while limiting teams to less than 38% success.

Then there is Minnesota. When Daunte Culpepper has the ball, the Vikings are monstrous on third down. With Culpepper completing 68.2% of his third-down passes, the Vikings get first downs on 45.3% of their third-down plays.

It is a different story, though, when Minnesota has to stop teams on third down. The Vikings are giving up first downs to opponents on 40% their third-down plays.

It’s amazing how winning teams seem to gain enough yards to keep drives alive and opponents from first downs. For losing teams, it’s usually just the opposite: always a tackle too late and an inch too short.