Frankly, My Dear Politician, California’s Voters Just Don’t Care

SACRAMENTO — Democratic candidates in California have political power and sacks of money. But they don’t have the voters’ attention, let alone their enthusiasm. And the party’s worried.

People are numb to politics, analysts observe. They don’t even want to think about politicians. In fact, many people are repelled.

To paraphrase former President Jimmy Carter from 23 years ago, there’s a malaise across the land.

It affects the Republican party too, of course. “There’s absolutely no enthusiasm for either candidate for governor,” notes Tony Quinn, who co-edits the Target Book, which analyzes legislative and congressional races.

It’s widely assumed that the Nov. 5 election will produce the lowest turnout for a gubernatorial race in California history--maybe 55% of registered voters. A record-low 34.6% turned out for the March primary.

By the nature of politics, the lower the turnout, the worse it is for Democratic candidates. They depend on broad voter participation, especially among the working classes, to win competitive races.

Republican voters are less likely than Democrats to boycott the ballot and are more loyal to their party’s nominees.

At least that’s the conventional wisdom.

One dissenter from this consensus view is veteran Democratic consultant Bill Carrick. “In recent elections, it’s been pretty balanced,” he insists. “There’s no evidence low turnout hurts Democrats more than Republicans.”

Nevertheless, Carrick adds, Gov. Gray Davis should be “really worried about turnout. It’s the biggest danger he has--some quirky turnout.”

Carrick says Davis especially should worry about Democrats’ casting protest votes for a third-party candidate, like Green nominee Peter M. Camejo.

Davis seems particularly concerned about potential Latino defections. He has been agonizing over whether to sign bills pushed by Latino and labor activists to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses and to improve collective bargaining for farm workers.

If Davis vetoes the farm labor bill, he’ll be “shunned” by many Latino voters and politicians, proclaims Richie Ross, a Democratic consultant and longtime advisor to the United Farm Workers Union. One “shunner” will be Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, says Ross, his consultant. “We’re absolutely dead serious.”

Saturday, Davis began airing commercials on Spanish-language TV declaring that he has “worked side by side” with Bustamante--a real stretch--and “Latinos have a friend in the governor’s office.”

Many analysts now perceive a scenario in which Davis wins a closer-than-expected race against Republican Bill Simon Jr., but a low vote turnout hurts “down ticket” Democratic candidates.

Rather than heavily bankrolled Democrats sweeping all statewide offices, as many pundits have speculated, perhaps Republicans will win two or three. Maybe the GOP cuts into the Democrats’ dominance of the Assembly. Even picks up the Central Valley congressional seat of scandal-tainted Rep. Gary Condit, beaten in the Democratic primary.

“I’m very worried,” concedes Democratic state chairman Art Torres.

The Democratic party has budgeted $6 million to get out the vote through mail, phone and door-to-door walking. But the party spent $20 million on its “ground” effort in the last gubernatorial election, Torres notes. It’s hoping for a big infusion of dollars from fund-raising champ Davis.

Regardless, Democrats will have a lot more money than Republicans do to coax out their voters. They’ll need it.

Says Barbara O’Connor, a political communications professor at Cal State Sacramento: “We’re in a period, not just of boredom and disinterest. It’s beyond dislike. There’s a climate of disdain....

“There’s no respect for either the [political] process or the participants. The whole process is getting corrupted by money. There’s an unrelenting drumbeat of negative ads.”

It’s not only in this state. In recent primary elections across the country, turnouts have been lower than California’s.

Political pros say people are preoccupied with and depressed by the slumping economy, their deteriorating 401(k)s, corporate scandals, the terrorist threat, Iraq, pedophile priests.... And in California they’re still grumpy about energy.

“It’s scary out there,” says Democratic consultant Darry Sragow. “Voters are sour. We’ve tried in focus groups to see if there’s some issue that gets their juices going, and there isn’t. They’re like, ‘Leave me alone.’ ”

Once people realize in focus groups that “they’re going to be talking about politics for a whole two hours,” consultant Gale Kaufman says, “it’s hard to keep them in the room.”

The only races that currently interest Californians are the baseball pennant races.