Bush Puts Asia Back at Top of Agenda

ELMENDORF AIR FORCE BASE, Alaska â€”  President Bush set off Saturday for a three-nation tour of Asia that will finally get him back to the region--and issues--he initially intended to make a cornerstone of his administration’s foreign policy.

According to U.S. officials, the six-day trip is designed to signal that the war on terrorism has not diverted the United States’ attention from either its broader agenda or the rest of the world.

In his Saturday radio address, Bush said the common theme during his talks in Japan, South Korea and China will be building “a better world beyond terror--a world of greater opportunity and more open trade, stronger security and more individual freedom.�

En route to Tokyo, during a brief stop at this base just 44 miles across the Bering Strait from the former Soviet Union, the president did reemphasize his determination to take the war on terrorism beyond Afghanistan. He also reiterated his warning to Iraqi leaders that they risk a U.S. attack unless they begin to “conform to normal ways of treating their own people, plus their own neighborhood, plus the world.�

Although he did not mention Iraq specifically, his reference to it was unmistakable, as he cited “those who have gassed their own citizens.�

But returning to his immediate agenda, the president said he will make clear to the leaders of Japan, South Korea and China that “the resolve of this nation is steady and strong [and that] when it comes to defending freedom, the United States will not blink.�

Still, so much has changed since the president was supposed to make this trip last fall that Bush is likely to face tougher issues--and a more tempered reception--in Japan and South Korea, America’s two closest Asian allies, than in China, say U.S. and Asian analysts. He could even face angry demonstrations in South Korea, where 37,000 U.S. troops are based.

He might achieve the most tangible results in Beijing, where the administration hopes to win agreement to set up an FBI office to work with China on terrorism and security issues.

The substance of the trip is reflected in the symbolism of the president’s stops.

On the Korean peninsula, Bush will travel to the demilitarized zone bordering North Korea, which he last month labeled one of three countries in an “axis of evil.� In Tokyo, he will address Japan’s parliament to encourage reforms to prevent an economic collapse. And in China, where he will land almost exactly 30 years after President Nixon’s historic visit, he will give a nationally broadcast speech at Qinghua University, a symbol of the new generation that the U.S. hopes will usher in change.

The reception accorded Bush in public at each stop is likely to be warm, but he is also likely to feel strains beneath the surface. In Japan, the first stop, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s economic reforms have fallen short, and the U.S. is increasingly concerned about a meltdown of the banking system. Koizumi fears being pushed too much in public, while the administration fears that without pressure from the U.S., a collapse will be unavoidable.

In Seoul, the government of President Kim Dae Jung has been barely able to hide its fury over Bush’s “axis of evil� remarks, which have been another nail in the coffin for Kim’s reconciliation efforts with North Korea.

In Beijing, differences are still deep over everything from religious freedom to missile defense, despite the new ties created by cooperation in the war on terrorism.

Bush will arrive later today in Japan, where the schedule for the summit last fall would have been much better for both sides. Koizumi’s popularity then was at historical highs. And he was in Washington’s good graces because of his financial and military contributions to the war on terrorism.

Today, the Japanese economy is decidedly worse. And Koizumi’s popularity has plummeted to about 45%, while his economic reform policies are increasingly mired in domestic politics.

“It’s a really tough time for Koizumi,� said Motofumi Asai of Meiji Gakuin University. “He has a tiger at the front door and a wolf at the back gate.�

Japan cobbled together an economic package on the eve of the visit to address U.S. concerns. But analysts in Japan don’t expect it to address much more than the symptoms of the country’s economic malaise.

In his radio address, Bush offered his first nudge, expressing confidence that Japan will launch “bold reforms� to deal with its “economic uncertainty and transition� and restore “growth and opportunity.�

But Tokyo still fears that U.S. support and expectations are eroding as yet another Japanese government fails to deliver on reform. This, in turn, is feeding Japan’s deep insecurity that the world will sidle up to China and marginalize Japan.

Bush can also expect a strained meeting with Kim in Seoul on Wednesday. Kim’s conciliatory approach toward the North has been faltering since the leaders’ first meeting in March, when Bush publicly disparaged the policies that had earned Kim a Nobel peace prize.

Kim, a lame duck, is anxious to show progress with the North before the next presidential election, Dec. 18, both to aid his political allies and to seal his legacy as a peacemaker.

In his radio address, Bush said he supports reconciliation efforts but added that Washington will not allow the North to “threaten freedom with weapons of mass destruction.� He also called the DMZ “one of the most dangerous places on Earth.�

U.S. officials say there is no contradiction between supporting Kim’s policy and labeling North Korea an evil nation.

But the South Korean public hasn’t bought it. Bush’s “axis of evil� speech was denounced in editorials and by labor unions, Buddhist and Christian groups, students and even some conservatives. Seoul has witnessed several protests over the past two weeks, with riot police struggling to keep them from the U.S. Embassy.

Park Young Ho, director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government think tank, said many South Koreans are genuinely frightened that Bush will drag the Korean peninsula into the war against terrorism.

“South Korea has become a hostage in this war of rhetoric between the United States and North Korea,� Park said. “I think the feeling of ordinary Koreans is that North Korea is gradually changing and that these kind of remarks are not helpful.�

The events of Sept. 11 actually helped repair Sino-U.S. ties. By last week, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell was describing the countries’ ties as “candid, constructive and cooperative� in congressional testimony.

But perennial sticking points are expected to come up in talks between Bush and Chinese President Jiang Zemin, which will focus on four issues: human rights, Taiwan, U.S. missile defense and weapons of mass destruction.

Bush said Saturday that he will encourage China “to embrace the universal demands of human dignity, freedom of conscience and religion, and the rights and value of every life.�

The president is also expected to try to calm Beijing’s concerns over the controversial U.S. plan to build a missile defense shield by making clear that it would not be directed at China or intended to give Washington “unilateral advantage,� National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice told reporters last week.

Bush is also likely to have a chance to take the initial measure of the man expected to lead China’s 1.3 billion people starting next year. Vice President Hu Jintao is due to take over when Jiang retires in early 2003. Little is known about Hu overseas, except that late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping anointed him to succeed Jiang. Bush and Hu are expected to meet when the president talks to the next generation of Chinese officials.

The signal of how well the working visit went will be the kind of invitation Bush extends to Jiang for his fall trip to the United States. The Chinese leader is angling for an invitation to Bush’s Texas ranch, although U.S. officials said Friday that the president had not yet made up his mind about whether to do so.

*

Wright reported from Washington and Elmendorf, Magnier from Tokyo and Demick from Seoul. Times staff writers Edwin Chen in Elmendorf and Henry Chu in Beijing contributed to this report.