Reports Likely to Offer Clearer Picture of U.S. Economy

Reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing in February should give investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials a clearer idea this week of whether the U.S. will avoid its first recession in a decade. Earlier this month, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said consumer confidence will be critical in determining whether the economy continues expanding. A report from the Conference Board coming Tuesday will probably show that its confidence index declined to 110.5 from 114.4 in January, analysts said. That would be the lowest reading since December 1996, though above the February 1992 low of 47.3.